Three races, California map and the Trump factor: What to watch in US elections
Lead: It is Election Day in the United States, and while no presidential or congressional contests are on the ballot, several tightly watched votes could signal broader political trends. New York City will select a mayor in a race that pits a young progressive against established party figures. Voters in New Jersey and Virginia will elect governors in contests viewed as potential bellwethers for next year’s midterms. In California, Proposition 50 — a proposed mid-decade redistricting change — has attracted unusually large spending and national attention.
Key takeaways
- New York City: Zohran Mamdani, a 34-year-old state assemblyman and self-described democratic socialist, seeks to become the city’s youngest mayor in over a century after defeating Andrew Cuomo in the Democratic primary.
- Cuomo has continued in the race as an independent and faces pressure from Republicans; Curtis Sliwa has refused calls to withdraw and remains the Republican candidate.
- California Proposition 50 would permit new congressional maps to be used through 2030; supporters have raised roughly $158 million, according to the Los Angeles Times.
- Polling on Prop 50 from UC Berkeley/IGS shows about 60% of likely California voters in favor and 38% opposed, with stark partisan splits (93% of Democrats yes, 91% of Republicans no).
- New Jersey’s governor’s race between Democrat Mikie Sherrill and Republican Jack Ciattarelli is polling closely and has drawn national surrogates from both parties.
- Virginia’s contest—Abigail Spanberger (D) versus Winsome Earle-Sears (R)—will yield the state’s first female governor and could be the first Black woman elected governor if Earle-Sears wins.
- The presence and endorsements of Donald Trump are an overarching theme: he has intervened in New York, backed Ciattarelli in New Jersey and helped spark the redistricting debate in California.
Background
The 2025 off-year cycle historically features state and local contests that can presage national political shifts. Although no seats in Congress are at stake this year, governors’ races and major ballot initiatives often shape the environment for the following midterms, affecting fundraising, messaging and voter enthusiasm. Parties and interest groups therefore treat these elections as strategic tests ahead of 2026.
New York’s mayoral contest has assumed outsize importance because of the candidates involved and the city’s national profile. Zohran Mamdani rose to prominence after an upset primary victory over former governor Andrew Cuomo, who then chose to continue his bid outside the Democratic line. The split among center-left voters combined with a remaining Republican challenger complicates the usual partisan calculus in a city that is overwhelmingly Democratic.
California’s Proposition 50 is unusual: state law typically delegates congressional mapmaking to an independent commission once per decade after the census. Governor Gavin Newsom has framed a mid-decade change as a defensive measure against Republican-led efforts elsewhere to redraw maps ahead of the 2026 midterms. The initiative has therefore attracted heavy outside spending and national political attention.
Main event
In New York City, Mamdani’s campaign emphasized cost-of-living issues — rent, groceries and wages — positioning those themes as a model for progressive messaging beyond the city. His youth and ideological roots make him a lightning rod for critics who argue he lacks executive experience. Andrew Cuomo’s independent bid and Republican Curtis Sliwa’s refusal to withdraw raise the prospect of a three-way vote that could produce an unexpected winner in a city accustomed to Democratic dominance.
In California, Proposition 50 would temporarily allow new congressional district lines through 2030 if voters approve the measure. Supporters argue the step is necessary to guard against Republican gerrymanders elsewhere that could shift House majorities nationally. Opponents counter that changing the map mid-decade politicizes a process designed to be nonpartisan and risks lowering public confidence in how districts are drawn.
New Jersey’s campaign has been highly competitive, with Democrat Mikie Sherrill — currently representing NJ’s 11th Congressional District — facing former state assemblyman Jack Ciattarelli. Both parties have deployed national figures to help turnout and fundraising; Democrats point to the state’s recent Democratic lean, while Republicans highlight past GOP governorships as evidence of competitiveness.
Virginia’s race pits two different profiles against each other: Abigail Spanberger, a U.S. congresswoman who focuses on federal funding and local economies, and Winsome Earle-Sears, the sitting lieutenant governor who has emphasized cultural issues and conservative priorities. The result will be closely watched as a measure of suburban and rural sentiment in a state that swings between parties.
Analysis & implications
Short-term, the most immediate consequence of these results will be their effect on party narratives and momentum heading into the 2026 midterms. A surprise victory by a candidate like Mamdani in New York could embolden progressive messaging on economic issues nationwide, while narrow Democratic losses in gubernatorial contests could sharpen GOP arguments about security and competence.
California’s Proposition 50 outcome will have institutional implications for how states respond to perceived mapmaking threats. If voters approve a mid-decade reset, other states may explore similar mechanisms as counterweights to partisan redistricting. Conversely, a defeat would reinforce the decade-based commission model and signal voter wariness about altering mapmaking rules midstream.
In New Jersey and Virginia, the governors-elect will shape local policy and ballot infrastructure, which in turn affects national politics. Governors control redistricting in some states, manage federal fund allocations, and influence legislative agendas; their officeholders thus matter well beyond state borders. Close margins in these races would indicate a volatile electorate and could prompt both parties to adjust candidate recruitment and messaging for 2026.
Comparison & data
| Item | Key figure |
|---|---|
| California Prop 50 (UC Berkeley/IGS poll) | 60% support / 38% oppose |
| California U.S. House seats held by Republicans | 9 of 52 seats |
| Campaign spending on Prop 50 (reported) | ~$158 million raised (Los Angeles Times) |
These data show a pronounced partisan split on Prop 50 and a significant resource gap reflecting national interest. The Republican share of California’s House delegation (9 of 52) helps explain why Democrats are pushing structural changes as a defensive strategy. Fundraising totals indicate the ballot measure has become a national spending focal point, unusual for a state-level procedural question.
Reactions & quotes
National figures and local leaders have framed these races through different lenses: policy competence, ideological identity and strategic consequence. Below are representative remarks and the context around them.
“It’s gonna be hard for me as the president to give a lot of money to New York, because if you have a communist running New York…all you’re doing is wasting the money you’re sending there.”
Donald Trump (President, quoted on 60 Minutes)
That comment, aired on 60 Minutes, underlines how the White House has publicly inserted itself into a municipal contest. The remark was cited repeatedly by Mamdani’s campaign as evidence of outside interference and by opponents to question his policy prescriptions.
“[He] lacks the experience to lead America’s biggest city.”
Andrew Cuomo (paraphrased critique)
Cuomo’s criticism, deployed during the late campaign, framed the election as a test of managerial competence. The line has been used to appeal to moderate and swing voters concerned about crime and public safety.
“This is about protecting our voices in Congress in the face of national mapmaking efforts.”
Proposition 50 supporters (summary of advocacy messages)
Supporters of Prop 50 have repeatedly pitched the proposal as a pre-emptive move to preserve Democratic representation in the U.S. House. Opponents counter that the measure undermines nonpartisan mapmaking and sets a risky precedent.
Unconfirmed
- Whether Andrew Cuomo’s independent candidacy will siphon enough votes from Mamdani to hand victory to Curtis Sliwa remains uncertain pending final returns.
- Claims that Prop 50 will definitively secure a Democratic advantage in future midterms are speculative; much depends on how new maps are drawn and subsequent electoral trends.
Bottom line
Tonight’s set of off-year contests matters because they test messages, turnout models and institutional responses ahead of a consequential midterm cycle. Results will inform how parties allocate resources, whether national figures double down on local investments, and how activists frame economic versus cultural appeals.
California’s Proposition 50 outcome will be watched for its precedent value as much as its immediate impact on the state’s districts. A yes vote would represent a rare mid-decade disruption to an otherwise decennial mapmaking regime and could prompt similar proposals in other high-stakes states.
For voters and observers, the practical takeaways are straightforward: narrow margins could presage volatility in 2026, large spending gaps indicate nationalization of local questions, and the Trump factor will continue to shape messaging and endorsements even when he is not on the ballot.