Lead: As of Sept. 5, 2025, recent economic reports — including a gain of just 22,000 jobs in August and a revised June loss of 13,000 — have intensified scrutiny of President Trump’s stewardship of the economy and raised questions about political consequences ahead of next year’s midterms.
Key takeaways
- U.S. payrolls rose by only 22,000 in August 2025; June was revised to a 13,000-job decline, the first negative monthly total since December 2020 (BLS).
- Core inflation measures ticked up over the summer amid tariff-driven price pressure on goods such as furniture and appliances.
- Manufacturing output has contracted for six consecutive months, signaling cooling industrial activity.
- Gallup found President Trump’s economic approval at 37% in August, down from 42% in February and far below his first-term average of 52%.
- An Economist/YouGov survey showed just 34% approval for his handling of inflation, while a majority of Americans say the economy is worsening.
- Democrats are preparing to center the economy in midterm campaigns; Republicans are seeking to shift focus to crime and other issues.
Verified facts
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that nonfarm payrolls increased by 22,000 in August 2025, while a revision to June’s numbers showed a loss of 13,000 jobs, the first monthly decline since December 2020. Labor-market analysts describe the data as evidence that hiring momentum has slowed after a multiyear expansion.
Inflation signals have been mixed: headline inflation remains elevated for many consumers, and a widely watched measure of underlying inflation rose over the summer. Economists and business groups have pointed to tariffs and higher import costs — including levies on certain categories of goods — as one of several upward price pressures on household purchases.
Manufacturing indicators have shown contraction for multiple months. Factory activity indexes and other industrial metrics suggest that the production side of the economy is under strain, which could weigh on future hiring if the trend continues.
Context & impact
Politics and economics are intersecting ahead of the 2026 midterms. Historically, voters’ views of the economy play a major role in congressional races: surveys from last year and exit polling indicated that economic concerns were decisive for many voters. Democrats hope to exploit weakening data by highlighting policy choices they say have raised costs for households.
Republican strategists counter that presidential messaging can reframe voter priorities. The White House is attempting to steer attention toward crime and immigration — topics the administration argues will motivate its base and suburban voters in key districts.
Key potential campaign implications include:
- Sharper Democratic ads tying tariffs and tax changes to price increases at the store.
- Republican emphasis on public safety and cultural issues to divert voter attention from pocketbook concerns.
- Intense focus on swing districts where economic sentiment has softened.
“The American people are feeling the impact of these policies in community after community,” said House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, criticizing the administration’s approach.
Rep. Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.)
“Don’t assume President Trump will be reacting to any issue next November; he will be trying to drive the discussion,” said Bill Stepien, a Republican political operative.
Bill Stepien, Republican strategist
Unconfirmed
- Whether the August slowdown will trigger a Federal Reserve policy reversal or a near-term interest-rate cut remains uncertain and depends on incoming inflation and employment data.
- The direct causal share of tariffs in recent price increases is debated; economists point to multiple contributing factors, including supply-chain dynamics and global commodity movements.
- Claims that particular foreign-policy moves caused shifts in other nations’ alignments are contested and under continued analysis.
Bottom line
Short-term data show the U.S. economy cooling in ways that could become a political liability for President Trump if the trends persist. Parties are positioning now: Democrats to run on rising costs and Republicans to pivot the discourse to crime and national priorities. The ultimate political impact will hinge on the trajectory of jobs, prices and consumer sentiment over the coming months.