A new national poll by NBC News’ Decision Desk, conducted online Jan. 27–Feb. 6 with 21,995 adults (±2.4 points), finds U.S. support for President Donald Trump’s immigration agenda falling sharply after the fatal shootings of Alex Pretti and Renee Good in Minnesota. The survey shows a double‑digit rise in strong disapproval of Trump’s handling of border security and immigration and a near‑match between his immigration ratings and his overall job approval. Independent voters — a decisive bloc in swing states — drove much of the shift, and many respondents said graphic social media videos shaped their views. The results place the administration’s enforcement tactics and deportation goals under renewed public scrutiny ahead of midterm contests in the president’s second year.
Key Takeaways
- 49% of adults now strongly disapprove of how Trump has handled border security and immigration, up from 38% last summer and 34% in April.
- Trump’s overall approval slipped to 39%, nearly identical to his rating on immigration and border security and down from 42% in December.
- The poll of 21,995 adults was fielded Jan. 27–Feb. 6 and carries a margin of error of ±2.4 percentage points.
- Following the death of Alex Pretti, 60% of respondents somewhat or strongly disapproved of Trump’s immigration actions; 40% approved.
- Support for reforming or abolishing ICE is strong: roughly three‑quarters of respondents favored either reform or abolition.
- Majorities say federal immigration agents have gone too far and express distrust that federal probes into the shootings will be fair; 62% said they do not expect investigations to be transparent.
- On local cooperation with federal deportation efforts, 46% favor cooperation in some cases, 34% in all cases, and 20% say localities should never cooperate.
Background
Immigration and border security were long polling strengths for Donald Trump, bolstering his 2024 campaign and early second‑term standing. Aggressive enforcement operations, expanded deportation goals and stepped‑up ICE activity have been central to the administration’s strategy to demonstrate control over migration and public safety. That positioning helped consolidate core supporters but also drew persistent criticism from immigrant‑rights advocates, local officials and some state authorities who argued federal tactics sometimes sidelined local jurisdictions.
In recent months, the federal government increased high‑visibility enforcement actions in multiple cities. Those operations produced a string of confrontations and social media footage showing clashes between agents, protesters and residents. The killings of Alex Pretti and Renee Good in Minnesota — and questions about how local investigators were involved — intensified attention on both tactics and oversight, prompting leadership changes in the Minneapolis enforcement operation and public debate about the role of ICE in cities.
Main Event
The NBC News Decision Desk poll, powered by SurveyMonkey and in the field as the Minnesota incidents unfolded, captures public reaction to those events. After the deaths of Pretti and Good, respondents reported higher disapproval of federal immigration tactics and diminished confidence that investigations would be impartial. The poll found that 63% said the federal government had gone too far in disregarding local and state governments, while 37% said state and local governments had gone too far in disregarding federal authority.
Responses also show clear disagreement over enforcement practices: 63% disapproved of immigration agents wearing masks during operations, and 58% rejected the idea that ordinary, law‑abiding citizens had “nothing to fear” from immigration agents. On information sources, 34% of respondents said videos posted on social media were the most accurate source about the clashes, with 24% pointing to national news accounts.
Political fault lines emerged inside the Republican coalition. Support for agents’ conduct, confidence in investigative transparency and appetite for investigations diverged sharply between MAGA‑aligned Republicans and more traditional GOP identifiers. For example, 74% of MAGA Republicans strongly approved of mask use by officers versus 46% of traditional Republicans, and MAGA supporters reported greater confidence that federal probes would be transparent.
Administratively, the White House moved to change leadership of immigration operations in Minneapolis after the incidents, and while the poll was in the field a senior border official announced that hundreds of agents would be withdrawn from the city. The president also told NBC News he believed a “softer touch” on immigration might be necessary after the backlash.
Analysis & Implications
The poll suggests the Minnesota incidents — amplified by immediate and often graphic social media coverage — materially altered public sentiment around an issue that had been a durable strength for Trump. Independents swung decisively toward strong disapproval, which matters in closely contested states where election margins can be slim. A sustained slide among independents could complicate Republican efforts to hold key districts and states in coming contests.
Politically, the erosion of support on immigration exposes limits in message control. The administration has sought to reframe debate around “sanctuary” policies and local cooperation, but the data indicates a sizable share of Americans are more concerned with enforcement tactics and accountability than with rhetorical appeals about border control. High levels of distrust in federal investigations further fuel skepticism of official responses and could harden opposition if perceived cover for misconduct persists.
Operationally, calls to reform or curb ICE suggest potential policy recalibration pressures from Congress, state governments and municipal leaders. If a broad coalition favors structural change, lawmakers may face increased pressure to propose oversight, transparency mandates or funding adjustments — moves that would reshape federal enforcement capabilities and local‑federal coordination.
Comparison & Data
| Metric | Current | Prior (Apr/Last summer/Dec) |
|---|---|---|
| Strong disapproval of Trump on immigration | 49% | 34% (Apr), 38% (last summer) |
| Overall Trump approval | 39% | 42% (Dec) |
| Approval of ICE | 34% | — |
| Distrust federal probe transparency | 62% do not trust | — |
The table highlights the scale of change on core questions: a roughly 15‑point increase in strong disapproval on immigration compared with April and a decline in overall job approval since December. While polls are snapshots and subject to short‑term fluctuation, the size and consistency of shifts across related questions (trust in probes, views on ICE, attitudes toward local cooperation) point to a meaningful realignment rather than isolated noise.
Reactions & Quotes
Analysts highlighted the central role of independents in the shift and warned that losses there can be consequential in swing states.
“Independents are a critical group in these margins,”
Marc Trussler, NBC News Decision Desk senior elections analyst
The administration and its allies emphasized law enforcement priorities and border control while also signaling tactical adjustments after the Minnesota events.
“We need a softer touch,”
President Donald Trump (interview with NBC News)
Community leaders and some local officials expressed concerns about federal‑local coordination and the transparency of probes into the shootings.
“Local jurisdictions must be part of credible investigations,”
Local officials and community advocates (summary of statements)
Unconfirmed
- Whether every local prosecutor was fully excluded from the federal inquiries remains under investigation; reporting indicates some resignations and friction but full chain‑of‑command details are not publicly verified.
- The precise operational directives that led to mask use by some agents have not been publicly released and remain subject to internal review.
- Attribution of specific street clashes to federal orders versus local protester actions is still being examined; video evidence is partial and context‑dependent.
Bottom Line
This poll captures a rapid deterioration in public confidence on immigration — once a political stronghold for the president — triggered by high‑profile enforcement incidents and amplified by social media. The change is concentrated among independents and shows fissures within the Republican coalition, creating electoral and policy risks for the administration ahead of midterm contests.
Policymakers face a choice: recalibrate enforcement tactics and increase transparency to rebuild trust, or double down on aggressive operations and accept deeper public and political pushback. How elected officials, investigators and the White House respond in the coming weeks will determine whether these opinion shifts are temporary reactions or the start of a longer‑term realignment on immigration issues.
Sources
- NBC News — original reporting and poll summary (news outlet).
- SurveyMonkey — polling platform and methodology (polling vendor).
- KARE — NBC affiliate in Minneapolis, partner in state survey (local news outlet).
- Minneapolis Star Tribune — partner in Minnesota survey and local reporting (local news outlet).