Lead: Former US president Donald Trump said the United States is not yet prepared to negotiate an end to the US–Israeli offensive against Iran, even as Tehran and its adversaries continued exchanges of missiles, drones and air strikes across the Gulf and Levant. His comments followed fresh Iranian attacks on Gulf states and Israel and renewed US and Israeli strikes on Iranian facilities, including Kharg Island, a key oil-export hub. The fighting has disrupted global air travel and energy flows, pushed fuel prices higher and driven large population movements inside Iran and across the region. Despite rising civilian casualties and economic strain, neither side has signalled an imminent change of course.
Key takeaways
- Donald Trump told NBC News he would not accept a ceasefire if the terms were “not good enough,” and said US forces may continue strikes on Iranian coast facilities including Kharg Island.
- Iran launched new missile and drone attacks on Gulf states and Israel while US and Israeli warplanes conducted further strikes on Iranian targets, extending a cycle of retaliation.
- Humanitarian toll: the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) reports about 1,300 people killed by US and Israeli strikes in Iran; Iranian sources cite 223 women and 202 children among the dead.
- Displacement: the UN refugee agency estimates up to 3.2 million people displaced inside Iran, largely fleeing major cities after strikes and infrastructure damage.
- Economic disruption: the Strait of Hormuz—which transits roughly one fifth of the world’s oil and gas—has been effectively constrained, with over 600 ships reported stuck in the Red Sea and global fuel prices rising.
- US military losses: at least 13 US service members have died since the conflict began, including six killed in a recent plane crash over Iraq; US officials have estimated about $12 billion in strike-related costs so far.
- Regional spillover: fighting has spread to Lebanon, Iraq and the Gulf; Israel reports hundreds of casualties from strikes linked to Hezbollah and Iranian forces.
Background
The current confrontation escalated after a strike on 28 February that killed Iran’s previous supreme leader and injured his son, Mojtaba Khamenei. That attack set off a rapid cycle of retaliation between Iran and a US–Israeli coalition, with missiles, drones and long-range air strikes striking both military and infrastructure targets. Iran’s geographic advantage along the Strait of Hormuz and its range of missiles, drones and small boats have allowed it to threaten shipping lanes that carry a significant share of global energy supplies.
Before the recent flares, the region already hosted complex rivalries: Iran and its allied militias, Israel and its regional partners, and US forces operating from bases in Gulf states. Several Gulf countries host US facilities and have denied allegations that their territory or airspace was used for strikes on Iran. Meanwhile, international mediation efforts—reported to involve Turkey and neighbouring states—have been touted but not publicly confirmed with concrete terms.
Main event
In interviews and public remarks over the weekend, Donald Trump said he believed Tehran had been willing to talk but that Washington would continue military pressure until it obtained more favorable conditions. Trump repeated a remark about possible further strikes on Kharg Island, a site of Iran’s main oil export infrastructure that was hit by US aircraft the previous day. His comments came as Iranian forces launched missile and drone barrages at Gulf states and at Israel, prompting air-defence activity and civilian damage in several cities.
Israeli and US aircraft resumed strikes on targets inside Iran aimed at degrading military capabilities and what allied officials described as command-and-control nodes. Iran’s Revolutionary Guards have vowed to pursue Israeli leaders after statements calling Israeli officials criminals, and Iran’s new supreme leader issued a written vow to keep the Strait of Hormuz closed. Tehran’s foreign ministry officials simultaneously urged restraint from third parties and said diplomatic channels remain under use.
On the ground in Tehran, life showed signs of limited return to routine: markets and cafes reopened, traffic increased and some public services resumed, though bank online systems remained partially disrupted and many residents continued to relocate away from the capital. In Lebanon and southern Israel, clashes between Israeli forces and Hezbollah have produced substantial casualties and damaged civilian infrastructure in towns near the border.
Analysis & implications
Military reopening of the Strait of Hormuz would be highly challenging. Experts warn that as long as Iran retains the capability to strike or harass shipping with missiles, drones or small boats, any attempt to restore free transit by force will be costly and difficult to sustain. Multinational naval escorts could reduce some risks but would not eliminate asymmetric threats that can be launched from short-range platforms.
The economic consequences are immediate and global. Disruptions to the strait and delays around the Suez and Red Sea routes have constrained crude flows and forced longer sailings, contributing to higher fuel costs and supply-chain uncertainty. The direct financial toll on US military operations—estimated at about $12 billion so far—adds a fiscal dimension that will affect domestic politics and budget choices in Washington.
Diplomatically, the standoff reduces room for mediated compromises. Tehran’s statement that it would consider proposals that guarantee “a complete end” to hostilities suggests negotiating space exists on principle, but public rhetoric from both capitals and allied leaders indicates high bargaining demands. If either side seeks a maximalist outcome, sparring may continue and further widen the humanitarian crisis inside Iran and in neighbouring states.
Comparison & data
| Location / Category | Reported fatalities | Displaced or affected |
|---|---|---|
| Iran (US & Israeli strikes) | ~1,300 (ICRC) | up to 3.2 million displaced (UN agency) |
| Israel (missile attacks, Hezbollah clashes) | ~12–800 (reports vary; Israel reports 12 from recent strikes, ~800 in offensive on Hezbollah) | Internal disruptions, localized damage |
| US military | 13 killed (including six in crash) | US bases and personnel operating in region |
The table compiles figures cited by humanitarian agencies and official statements; ranges reflect different reporting windows and methods. Casualty and displacement totals are evolving as access to affected areas is restricted and agencies update assessments.
Reactions & quotes
US political and military leaders have framed continued strikes as a means to secure longer-term safety for shipping and to degrade Iranian strike capabilities. Trump framed his stance in blunt terms while suggesting he believed Iran had been willing to negotiate earlier.
“Iran wants to make a deal, and I don’t want to make it because the terms aren’t good enough yet.”
Donald Trump, former US president, interview with NBC News
Iran’s foreign ministry publicly urged other governments to avoid actions that could escalate the fighting while signalling that diplomacy was still possible under certain conditions.
“We urge other countries to refrain from actions that could lead to escalation and expansion of the conflict.”
Abbas Araghchi, Iranian foreign ministry (official statement)
Israeli officials reiterated a long-term aim to remove perceived existential threats from Iran and stressed alignment with US goals, denying reports that Israel is preparing immediate direct talks with Lebanon.
“We want to remove the existential threats from Iran for the long term. We don’t want to go every year to another war.”
Gideon Sa’ar, Israeli foreign minister
Unconfirmed
- Reports that Turkish mediation has produced concrete ceasefire terms remain unverified; officials have confirmed discussions but not published agreements.
- Claims that Mojtaba Khamenei’s condition or whereabouts are definitively known are inconsistent across sources; Iranian authorities have described injuries as light but outside verification is limited.
- Allegations that US strikes used specific Gulf state ports or bases as launching points have been denied by the UAE and other hosts and lack publicly available, independently verified evidence.
Bottom line
The conflict between Iran and a US–Israeli coalition has entered a costly and expansive phase, with significant civilian casualties, mass displacement and global economic fallout from disrupted energy and shipping. Military options to secure sea lanes face high uncertainty and risk, and purely kinetic approaches are unlikely to restore normal traffic while Iran retains asymmetric strike capabilities.
Diplomatic openings reported by some Iranian officials indicate a potential pathway to de-escalation, but public rhetoric and continuing strikes suggest any settlement would require third-party mediation and substantive concessions. Key indicators to watch are verified progress in mediation talks, independent confirmation of casualty and displacement tallies, and measures taken by states to protect shipping that balance deterrence with escalation control.
Sources
- The Guardian (international news media)
- NBC News (US news media; interview source cited)
- International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) (international humanitarian organization)
- UN Refugee Agency (UNHCR) (UN agency on displacement)
- Iranian foreign ministry statements (official government source)