Lead: New Bureau of Labor Statistics data released Sep. 3, 2025 show job openings fell to an estimated 7.18 million at the end of July, placing available positions below the 7.2 million unemployed workers for the first time since April 2021 and signaling a noticeable slowdown in the U.S. labor market.
Key Takeaways
- Job openings dropped to an estimated 7.18 million at the end of July 2025 (BLS).
- Unemployed workers numbered about 7.2 million, slightly exceeding openings — the first such gap since April 2021.
- Hiring activity stalled in July; layoffs remained low and worker job-to-job movement slowed.
- Economists had expected 7.37 million openings; the actual decline was larger than consensus.
- The shift adds to signs that the labor market is cooling after a prolonged tightness.
- Policy, wage growth and hiring plans may be affected if the trend persists into the autumn.
Verified Facts
The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported job openings at an estimated 7.18 million at the end of July 2025. That figure is the lowest in 10 months and falls below the BLS count of 7.2 million unemployed workers, creating a net shortfall of available positions compared with job seekers.
July hiring showed little movement: employers did not significantly increase hiring despite the prior period of strong demand. At the same time, layoffs remained low and many workers stayed in their current jobs, which has slowed labor churn.
Economists surveyed by FactSet had expected openings to ease modestly from June to about 7.37 million. The larger-than-expected decline in openings suggests a sharper cooling than forecasters anticipated.
| Measure | End of July 2025 (estimated) |
|---|---|
| Job Openings | 7.18 million |
| Unemployed Workers | 7.20 million |
Context & Impact
For more than three years the U.S. labor market ran unusually tight, with more openings than job seekers. That dynamic supported faster wage growth and gave workers leverage in negotiations. The July reversal erodes that imbalance and could slow wage pressure if it continues.
Employers may reassess hiring plans and budgets as openings decline. Sectors that expanded aggressively during the post-pandemic recovery could pause hiring or focus on productivity and retention rather than growth-by-staffing.
For policymakers, a sustained drop in openings reduces pressure on the Federal Reserve from the labor side, but inflation trends and services-sector dynamics will still shape decisions. Markets may react to further declines in openings or to any uptick in layoffs.
Official Statements
“This is a turning point for the labor market. It’s yet another crack.”
Heather Long, Chief Economist, Navy Federal Credit Union
Unconfirmed
- Whether the July shortfall will continue through the fall and become a prolonged trend.
- How quickly any slowdown in openings will translate to slower wage growth across sectors.
- Longer-term effects on hiring strategies at small and mid-sized businesses remain uncertain.
Bottom Line
The July 2025 BLS data mark a notable shift: openings have fallen below unemployed workers for the first time since April 2021, highlighting a labor market that is cooling and no longer historically tight. If this pattern persists, it could temper wage pressures and influence hiring and policy choices in the coming months.