Lead
U.S. equities slipped on Feb. 18, 2026 in New York as traders digested Walmart’s quarterly report and monitored rising tensions between the United States and Iran. The Dow fell 187 points (0.4%), the S&P 500 slid 0.3% and the Nasdaq retreated after a recent rally. Walmart’s fourth‑quarter sales and EPS beat Street estimates, but its full‑year earnings guidance came in below consensus. Energy prices ticked higher amid geopolitical concerns, adding to investor caution.
Key Takeaways
- The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 187 points, or 0.4%, while the S&P 500 slipped 0.3% and the Nasdaq also declined on Feb. 18, 2026.
- Walmart reported fiscal‑fourth‑quarter strength and full‑year revenue of $713.5 billion for the year ended Jan. 31, but guided adjusted EPS to $2.75–$2.85 versus LSEG’s $2.96 estimate.
- West Texas Intermediate crude rose more than 1% to trade above $66 per barrel amid U.S.‑Iran tensions, pressuring risk assets sensitive to energy prices.
- Blue Owl Capital shares plunged 8.7% after it sold $1.4 billion of loan assets across three private debt funds at roughly 99.7% of par.
- Economic data showed initial jobless claims fell to 206,000 for the week ending Feb. 14, while the December trade deficit widened to $70.3 billion.
- Corporate movers included Deere (Q1 EPS $2.42 on $8.0 billion revenue), Etsy (Depop sale to eBay for $1.2 billion) and Wayfair (Q4 adjusted EPS $0.85 on $3.34 billion revenue).
- Analysts highlighted a rotation out of tech into cyclical sectors; valuations of the so‑called Magnificent Seven have eased but remain elevated relative to long‑term norms.
Background
Equity markets entered Thursday coming off a winning session led by large technology names and strength among financial and energy stocks. That advance followed a period of broad selling earlier in the year, prompting investors to reassess leadership and valuation risks across market caps. The current environment is shaped by a mix of corporate earnings, central‑bank outlooks, macroeconomic data and geopolitical flash points, notably the standoff between the U.S. and Iran over nuclear activity.
Walmart occupies a central role in the retail landscape; its mix of brick‑and‑mortar scale, e‑commerce growth and an expanding advertising business make its results a gauge of consumer resilience. At the same time, oil markets remain sensitive to geopolitical narratives. Shifts in crude prices can amplify inflation expectations and tilt investor preference toward energy and industrial names, affecting sector rotation patterns on Wall Street.
Main Event
On Feb. 18, traders reacted to Walmart’s fourth‑quarter report that beat consensus on both sales and adjusted EPS, while management issued a full‑year EPS range of $2.75 to $2.85. The initial market reaction was mixed: shares traded modestly higher after the print but fell when the outlook failed to match LSEG consensus of $2.96. Investors parsed the beat on the quarter against a less ambitious forward earnings target.
Walmart said full‑year net sales were $713.5 billion for the fiscal year ending Jan. 31. Amazon reported 2025 net sales of $716.9 billion, positioning it narrowly ahead as the largest reported company by revenue. Walmart highlighted double‑digit growth in key businesses—e‑commerce up 24% and advertising up 37% in the fiscal fourth quarter—while noting continued market‑share gains among higher‑income customers.
Energy futures extended gains on Thursday, with West Texas Intermediate rising above $66 per barrel, up more than 1%. Market participants linked the move to escalating rhetoric and naval movements tied to Iran, which raised the risk premium on crude and added to equity market unease. Traders flagged that higher energy prices could widen input costs for companies and influence central‑bank conversations about inflation.
Analysis & Implications
Walmart’s mixed signal—beat on current results with a conservative earnings outlook—illustrates a broader theme: companies can post near‑term resiliency while flagging uncertainties ahead. For investors, the gap between quarter‑by‑quarter performance and annual guidance complicates positioning, especially for large cap retail names that are sensitive to both consumer spending and cost pressure trends.
The rise in oil amplifies that caution. A sustained move higher in crude would tend to favor energy and industrial sectors while weighing on consumer discretionary margins. Market breadth has been uneven: a handful of mega‑caps led recent gains, but strategists caution that leadership shifts may continue as the rotation toward cyclical names persists under the current macro backdrop.
Valuation dynamics are also central. Some strategists say pessimism toward tech has become exaggerated, yet the path for a durable leadership comeback by mega‑caps is uncertain while the macro environment favors cyclical exposure. That suggests investors may need to balance opportunities in beaten‑down names against continued volatility tied to geopolitics and macro releases.
Comparison & Data
| Company | Reported period | Annual revenue |
|---|---|---|
| Walmart | FY ended Jan. 31, 2026 | $713.5 billion |
| Amazon | Calendar 2025 | $716.9 billion |
The two retail giants reported nearly comparable top lines, with Amazon edging Walmart by roughly $3.4 billion for the reported period. The comparison underscores differences in revenue composition—Amazon’s larger cloud and services footprint versus Walmart’s expanding marketplace and advertising revenue—that influence profitability and investor multiples.
Reactions & Quotes
Market strategists and analysts cautioned against overstating current market moves while noting the potential for further rotation.
“A rebound in mega‑cap stocks, along with a pause in the rotation and broadening theme that has defined market performance this year, would not be surprising in the weeks ahead.”
Angelo Kourkafas, Edward Jones (senior global investment strategist)
Another commentator highlighted valuation progress in the largest tech names but urged caution.
“Purely from a valuation standpoint, the Mag‑7 isn’t as expensive as it was, but it’s not cheap either.”
Ed Yardeni, Yardeni Research (market strategist)
Corporate actions also drove individual stock moves: Blue Owl cited a negotiated sale of $1.4 billion in loan assets to four North American pension and insurance investors, and shares fell nearly 9% as liquidity terms were adjusted. Analysts at Stephens downgraded The Cheesecake Factory to equal weight after a modest earnings beat and a 2.2% same‑store sales decline.
Unconfirmed
- The precise extent to which Iran‑U.S. tensions directly drove Thursday’s equity moves is not fully established; market participants cited the geopolitical story, but trading flows are multifactorial.
- Any imminent military action or formal escalation between the United States and Iran tied to the recent headlines had not been confirmed at the time of publication.
Bottom Line
Markets pared some recent gains on Feb. 18 as investors balanced solid company results against conservative guidance and rising energy prices tied to geopolitical friction. Walmart’s quarter showed operational strengths—especially in e‑commerce and advertising—but its full‑year EPS outlook disappointed traders who expected stronger earnings power.
Going forward, investors should watch three levers: the trajectory of oil prices amid geopolitical developments, incoming macro data that could affect growth and rates, and corporate guidance that will determine whether recent rotation into cyclical sectors is durable. Those forces are likely to shape market leadership in the weeks ahead.