On Sept. 7, 2025, New York Post betting analyst Erich Richter released his Week 1 NFL picks and spreads for the full Sunday and Monday slate, backing several underdogs and divisional surprises while highlighting key injury questions and matchup edges ahead of kickoff.
Key Takeaways
- Top Sunday calls include Falcons +2.5 over Buccaneers and Broncos -8.5 over Titans.
- Richter favors several Week 1 underdogs: Jets +2.5, Giants +6, Lions +2.5 and Texans +3.
- Sunday Night Football pick: Ravens -1.5 at Bills; Baltimore is named the columnist’s preseason Super Bowl choice.
- Injury and availability notes factor into lines: Christian McCaffrey, Christian Gonzalez and Will Campbell flagged.
- Historical Week 1 trends (underdogs and divisional underdogs) inform multiple selections.
- Columnist’s seasonal record through last season: 119-138-3.
Verified Facts
The picks cover the full Week 1 slate (Sunday and Monday) with posted spreads: Falcons +2.5 vs. Buccaneers; Jets +2.5 vs. Steelers; Dolphins +1.5 vs. Colts; Jaguars -3.5 vs. Panthers; Giants +6 vs. Commanders; Saints +6.5 vs. Cardinals; Browns +5.5 vs. Bengals; Raiders +2.5 vs. Patriots; 49ers -1.5 vs. Seahawks; Broncos -8.5 vs. Titans; Lions +2.5 vs. Packers; Texans +3 vs. Rams; Ravens -1.5 vs. Bills; Bears +1.5 vs. Vikings (Monday).
Richter highlights matchup-specific reasons: Atlanta’s recent edge vs. Tampa Bay and Bijan Robinson’s rushing upside support Falcons +2.5; Denver’s strong offensive line and veteran defense drive the large favoring of the Broncos; and Cincinnati’s defensive uncertainty contributes to a Browns +5.5 lean.
Week 1 situational factors are emphasized. The column notes Seattle’s offensive line struggles (widely cited by Pro Football Focus) and flags Christian McCaffrey’s calf issue as a variable that affected the 49ers–Seahawks line movement. New additions, coaching changes and rookie impacts (for example, Jacksonville’s offensive staff changes and the Titans’ rookie quarterback matchup) are cited as reasons behind several spreads.
Context & Impact
Late-summer roster moves, preseason injuries and coaching changes have compressed some lines. Richter points to historical Week 1 patterns — underdogs and divisional underdogs have covered at notable rates — as part of the framework for selecting several dogs in this opening weekend.
Betting implications include cross-checking injury reports and snap-count news up through gameday: lines can shift if key players are ruled out or limited. For example, the 49ers spread fluctuated after the McCaffrey update, while New England’s defensive absences (noted: Christian Gonzalez out; Will Campbell doubtful) make the Raiders an attractive pick in Las Vegas.
- Market note: early-week lines may overreact to headline injuries; some moves appear to be market overcorrections.
- Strategy note: use player availability and O/U trends before finalizing Week 1 wagers.
These are my personal Week 1 matchups and reasoning based on matchup data, injuries and preseason trends.
Erich Richter / New York Post betting desk
Unconfirmed
- Exact severity and game availability of Christian McCaffrey’s calf issue remained unclear at the time of publication.
- Status updates and final playability for Christian Gonzalez and Will Campbell were reported as negative or questionable but may have changed before kickoff.
- General references to Buffalo’s preseason injury situation were not itemized with a full list of affected players.
- Any roster assertions attributed to depth-chart changes (for example, quarterback shake-ups mentioned in the column) should be checked against team releases before betting.
Bottom Line
Richter’s Week 1 card mixes trend-based underdog plays with favored teams that show clear matchup advantages. Bettors should monitor official injury reports and late-line movement before wagers; the column reflects a blend of analytics, matchup reads and historical Week 1 tendencies.