With two regular-season games remaining in the 2025 college-football season, the playoff field is beginning to crystallize but not without controversy. The top-six slots look largely settled, and conference champions from the ACC and the Group of 5 appear positioned to claim automatic places. A late-season clash between USC and Oregon carries major implications, and Notre Dame’s No. 9 ranking with games left only against Syracuse and Stanford makes it difficult to see the Irish missing the field. That leaves a cluster of teams on the periphery — Alabama, Oklahoma, Utah, Vanderbilt, BYU and Miami among them — frustrated that the committee’s weekly tweaks have not moved them closer to inclusion.
Key takeaways
- Alabama (8-2, No. 10) holds four wins over currently ranked opponents — No. 4 Georgia, No. 14 Vanderbilt, No. 20 Tennessee and No. 22 Missouri — yet sits behind Oregon and Notre Dame in the committee rankings.
- Notre Dame (8-2, No. 9) still has Syracuse and Stanford remaining, making its path to a playoff résumé comparatively clean given its current position.
- James Madison (9-1, unranked) has dominated its Sun Belt slate, winning its seven conference games by an average of about 24 points and outscoring opponents 208-80 over the past month.
- Selection decisions have largely frozen week-to-week; the committee’s adjustments have felt incremental, producing frustration among teams and fans expecting a more data-forward reevaluation.
- Michigan (8-2, No. 18) sits well behind Utah despite a résumé that, on close inspection, looks comparable to teams ahead of it, limiting Michigan’s realistic path to the playoff even with an Ohio State win.
- Open dates have been treated inconsistently: teams that rested in recent weeks (Georgia Tech, Vanderbilt) were still overtaken in the rankings by Miami, which has a head-to-head win over Notre Dame.
Background
When the College Football Playoff selection committee debuted in 2014, it was billed as an improvement over static polls: members would weigh weekly game context, advanced metrics and the evolving résumé of each contender. The idea was that a loss could be viewed within a broader context — opponent quality, game control, and underlying performance — rather than as a binary strike. Over the past decade the process has incorporated analytics, but critics say the committee often defaults to incremental changes and conservative movement from week to week.
This season compounds that critique. Several teams near the bubble — notably Alabama and Michigan — have strong measurable cases but have been penalized for isolated setbacks. Conversely, some teams with softer schedules or more favorable timing have been treated more leniently. The result is a playoff picture where roughly 10 of the 12 spots feel all but decided, and the remaining chase slots are dominated by interpretation rather than clear-cut comparisons.
Main event
Alabama’s résumé is substantial on paper: the Tide’s four victories over ranked teams include a head-to-head win over No. 4 Georgia, and their five wins against SP+ top-40 opponents trail only Texas A&M. Yet after a two-point loss in Week 12 that featured a missed field-goal attempt on a tipped kick and statistical markers that favored Alabama in yardage and underlying efficiency, the Tide dropped to No. 10. That movement sparked immediate pushback from observers who argue the committee penalized Alabama more harshly than comparable teams that also lost.
Notre Dame, at No. 9, remains in a strong position mostly because its remaining schedule includes only Syracuse and Stanford; barring an upset, the Irish can close the season without further blemishes. Oregon and USC’s late-season matchup carries major weight for the committee: a Ducks victory would cement another top bid and further compress the bubble, while an Oregon loss would open space for teams like Alabama to press their case.
James Madison’s surge presents the perennial Group of 5 dilemma. Tulane and Memphis have both been in the conversation at various points, but losses to league rivals have undercut those cases. JMU, though not tested by Power 5 opponents, has routinely dominated the Sun Belt — a résumé strength the committee must weigh against schedule limitations. Meanwhile, midmajor teams such as East Carolina (7-3) and North Texas (9-1) argue that sustained dominance in their leagues deserves fuller consideration.
Analysis & implications
There are two competing philosophies at work: treat every week as a fresh evaluation using advanced metrics and context, or regard rankings as largely stable each week and adjust only for clear results. The committee originally promised the former, which would have allowed Alabama’s underlying metrics — yardage, success rates and the quality of its wins — to mitigate a narrow loss. If the committee instead embraces the latter approach, narrow setbacks become disproportionately punitive.
That tension has tangible effects. For Alabama, maintaining a lower position forces a higher-stakes finish: no margin for error in the remaining games. For Michigan, being ranked No. 18 creates a nearly impossibly steep climb even with a marquee win over Ohio State. These placements affect not only playoff calculations but also perception, bowl alignments and recruiting narratives heading into the offseason.
On the Group of 5 front, James Madison’s dominance raises a normative question for the committee: to what extent should dominance within a weaker league offset a lack of Power 5 wins? Past practice has favored one Power 5 signature victory for a Group of 5 school; JMU lacks that, but its dominance suggests the committee could reasonably consider résumé momentum as a compensating factor.
Comparison & data
| Team | Record | Wins vs. ranked teams | Notable ranked wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alabama | 8-2 | 4 | No. 4 Georgia, No. 14 Vanderbilt, No. 20 Tennessee, No. 22 Missouri |
| Notre Dame | 8-2 | 1 | No. 15 USC |
| Oregon | (ranked ahead of Alabama) | 1 | Power-conference win (listed in committee notes) |
The simple table above shows why many viewers see Alabama’s placement as anomalous. Alabama’s four wins vs. ranked opponents and multiple top-40 SP+ victories provide a strong comparative profile. The committee’s public summaries, however, emphasize nuanced factors — strength of record, game control, and late-season trajectory — which can reweigh these raw counts in favor of teams with fewer marquee wins.
Reactions & quotes
Analytics observers noted that advanced metrics painted Alabama as an unlucky outcome in Week 12 rather than a fundamentally worse team.
Parker Fleming (analytics commentator)
Fans and some analysts described the committee’s week-to-week adjustments as overly cautious and at odds with the process’s original promise to reassess context each week.
ESPN analysis (media)
James Madison supporters point to the Dukes’ dominant margins — seven conference wins by roughly 24 points on average — as evidence their résumé merits serious Group of 5 consideration.
James Madison athletics coverage (regional media)
Unconfirmed
- Any claim that the committee intentionally “punished” Alabama for one loss as a matter of policy is unconfirmed; the committee’s internal deliberations are not public.
- Assertions that the committee draws names from a hat or otherwise uses arbitrary methods are speculative and lack evidence.
- Reports that the committee will favor a specific Group of 5 team this week remain tentative until the panel’s official ranking is released.
Bottom line
Alabama’s placement at No. 10 despite multiple high-quality wins has become the focal point of this week’s Anger Index because it crystallizes the larger complaint about the committee’s approach. Observers expected a context-rich reassessment of teams after each slate of games; instead, incremental changes and a conservative bias have produced frustration among teams with strong underlying metrics but a recent setback.
With two weeks left, much still can change: head-to-head results, conference titles and recovery from narrow losses all matter. For the Tide, every remaining game is essentially a must-win if they hope to reverse perceptions entrenched by the committee’s recent movements. For bubble teams and Group of 5 contenders, the coming weekends will test whether the committee returns to the more analytic, context-driven posture it once promised or continues to favor stability over weekly re-evaluation.
Sources
- ESPN Anger Index — Week 13 (media analysis)
- Parker Fleming (@statsowar) (analytics commentator; public social media)