Wegovy and Ozempic maker forecasts sharp drop in revenue for 2026 – The Guardian

Lead: Novo Nordisk, the Danish maker of Wegovy and Ozempic, warned on 4 February 2026 that full-year revenue will likely decline by 5%–13% as US price cuts agreed with the government, rising competition and patent expiries weigh on sales. The company said the guidance follows a strong 2025 in which total sales reached 309 billion Danish kroner and profit before tax rose to 130.5 billion kroner. Novo’s shares plunged 17% on the trading day the forecast was published, wiping out gains for the year and contributing to a near-50% decline over the past 12 months. Chief executive Mike Doustdar described the US pricing pressure as “unprecedented” and “painful,” while stressing the company expects higher volumes as prices fall.

• Forecast: Novo Nordisk projects 2026 sales will fall 5%–13% from 2025 levels, after 2025 revenue of 309bn DKK and PBT of 130.5bn DKK.
• Price concessions: Novo agreed with the US administration to cut average monthly prices for semaglutide products from more than $1,000 to about $350.
• Patent risks: Semaglutide patent expiries in several countries, including India, open the door to generic makers and compounded pharmacy alternatives.
• Market reaction: Novo shares dropped 17% on the guidance day and have fallen nearly 50% over the past year; Eli Lilly shares rose 9.5% on their stronger guidance.
• Product launch: The oral Wegovy tablet reached about 50,000 US prescriptions per week by late January 2026 after its early-month launch.
• Competitive landscape: Eli Lilly’s Mounjaro leads in weight-loss efficacy in trials and aims for much higher 2026 sales ($80bn–$83bn vs $65bn in 2025).
• Regional patent protection: Novo retains semaglutide patents in Europe and Japan until 2033 and in the US until 2032, partially insulating key markets.

Background

For several years Novo Nordisk was the market leader in GLP-1–based obesity and diabetes treatments, driven by injectable semaglutide brands such as Ozempic and Wegovy. Global demand for GLP-1 drugs surged as clinical trials and real-world results demonstrated meaningful weight-loss and glycaemic benefits, producing double-digit revenue growth for major developers. The sector shifted sharply in 2025 as new entrants, notably Eli Lilly with its Mounjaro injection, gained clinical and commercial momentum, prompting investors to reprice winners and laggards. In late 2025 and early 2026 US policy moved to reduce drug prices, with administrations negotiating significant cuts in exchange for access and other concessions. These political, legal and commercial shifts set the stage for the guidance Novo issued in February 2026.

Patent timing is central to the sector’s outlook. Semaglutide — the active molecule in many of Novo’s flagship medicines — has staggered protection across jurisdictions: extended in Europe and Japan to 2033 and in the US to 2032, but expiring sooner in some markets such as India. Those earlier expiries permit local manufacturers to produce generic semaglutide versions under domestic rules, while compounded pharmacy formulations have already provided cheaper, unbranded options to some US patients. Simultaneously, oral formulations of GLP-1 drugs have reached the market, lowering barriers to uptake and intensifying price competition across retail and insured channels.

Main Event

On 4 February 2026 Novo Nordisk published 2026 guidance stating revenues would likely decline by between 5% and 13% compared with 2025, citing a combination of US price concessions, increased competition and the impact of patent expiries. Management described the US pricing agreement with the federal government as a material cut, reducing month-to-month prices from more than $1,000 to an average of roughly $350 for semaglutide-based therapies. The company framed the move as a strategic trade-off: lower prices now to expand long-term volume and broader access.

Novo also highlighted the strong early uptake of its newly launched oral Wegovy tablet, which reached approximately 50,000 US prescriptions per week by late January 2026. The pill is priced for cash payers between $149 and $299 a month depending on dose, while some insurance-enabled channels — including Amazon Pharmacy — have listed lower copays for covered patients. Novo’s finance chief called the pills’ launch a “fantastic update,” underlining the product’s role in sustaining market relevance even as injected competitors and generics pressure margins.

Investors reacted sharply. Novo shares fell 17% on the day of the guidance, reversing gains for the year and deepening a near-50% drop over the prior 12 months. In contrast, Eli Lilly reported a rosy outlook: projecting $80bn–$83bn in 2026 sales versus about $65bn in 2025, and saw its stock climb around 9.5% in US trading. The divergence highlights how different product mixes, pipeline timing and regional patent positions are shaping market winners and losers within the GLP-1 wave.

Analysis & Implications

Novo’s guidance signals a sector turning point: policy intervention on drug prices now directly affects the top line of high-value biologics. Short-term revenue declines driven by negotiated price cuts are, in management’s framing, an investment in broader access and higher long-term volumes. That trade-off matters because GLP-1s have already shown steep demand elasticity — lower out-of-pocket costs can materially expand the treated population — but increased uptake does not immediately offset lost per-unit revenue, especially where payer mix shifts.

Patent expiries outside key markets compound the pressure by enabling lower-cost generics and compounded alternatives. In countries with earlier expiries, manufacturers can undercut branded prices quickly, eroding export and regional sales. Retained exclusivity in Europe, Japan and the US provides some runway for Novo, but even in protected markets price concessions and competitive launches (including oral formulations from several firms) compress margins over time.

Strategically, Novo must manage simultaneous priorities: defend premium franchise economics where patents and brand strength allow, accelerate development of next-generation molecules to regain differentiation, and scale lower-cost distribution to capture volume at new price points. For investors and health systems, the episode underscores how political choices — such as aggressive US price negotiations — can reshape profit pools across global pharma.

Comparison & Data

The table illustrates how Novo’s expected decline contrasts with peers: Lilly projects substantial growth driven by competitive products and pipeline momentum, while GSK anticipates modest single-digit growth in a different portfolio mix. Market reactions reflected these outlooks: Novo shares fell sharply on the guidance day while Lilly’s rose and GSK closed at multiyear highs after investor reassurances.

Reactions & Quotes

Company leadership framed the guidance as a defensive measure and a pathway to higher long-term volumes.

“Our 2026 guidance reflects a year of unprecedented pricing pressure,”

Mike Doustdar, CEO, Novo Nordisk

Equity analysts highlighted the combined impact of policy and competition on investor sentiment.

“Donald Trump’s crusade on drug prices, patent expiration, and competition all had their part to play,”

Derren Nathan, Head of Equity Research, Hargreaves Lansdown

Finance management emphasized the early commercial success of the oral Wegovy tablet.

“A fantastic update” on the Wegovy pill launch,

Karsten Knudsen, CFO, Novo Nordisk

Unconfirmed

• The precise magnitude and timing of volume gains that will offset price cuts remain uncertain and depend on payer uptake and prescribing behaviour.
• The extent to which compounded pharmacy formulations will continue to cannibalise branded sales in the US is not fully documented in public data.
• Timing and commercial details of rival oral GLP-1 launches, including higher-dose pricing and availability, are subject to regulatory approvals and distribution agreements.

Bottom Line

Novo Nordisk’s 2026 guidance is a milestone for the GLP-1 market: it signals that political pressure on drug prices, patent timing and intense product competition can combine to reverse years of rapid revenue growth for even the sector’s largest players. Management argues the price concessions will expand access and volumes, but investors must weigh near-term margin compression against a longer-term growth case dependent on new products and geographic patent protections.

For patients and payers, lower prices may increase access to effective obesity and diabetes therapies, but the industry consequences include accelerated generic entry, pricing pressure across classes, and a stronger emphasis on next-generation molecules and differentiated formulations. Watch the next earnings cycles, regulatory approvals for oral competitors and patent litigation outcomes — each will be pivotal in deciding whether Novo can translate lower prices into a sustainable, higher-volume business.

Sources

• The Guardian (news media)
• Novo Nordisk Investor Relations (official company investor information)