Lead: A record-level snow drought is unfolding across the western United States in early February, leaving mountain snow cover at roughly one-third of its typical extent for this time of year and prompting concern from federal agencies, climate scientists and water managers. Measurements from the National Snow and Ice Data Center show snow-water equivalents and snow cover far below normal, with some states recording their lowest seasonal snowpack in records going back to the early 1980s. The shortfall threatens water supplies that feed cities, irrigation networks and ecosystems and has intensified negotiations over the Colorado River’s future as officials face near-term decisions. Experts also warn the unusually warm, persistent winter pattern raises the risk of an earlier and longer wildfire season.
Key takeaways
- Snow cover across the western US is approximately one-third of normal for this time of year, based on satellite and station metrics.
- On 1 February, 91% of weather stations across the region reported snow-water content below the long-term median, signaling widespread deficits.
- Oregon, Colorado and Utah reported statewide snowpack lows not seen since the early 1980s, when modern records began.
- The Colorado River, a 1,450-mile (2,300 km) basin serving roughly 40 million people, faces its worst February water-supply outlook in more than 30 years.
- About 80% of Colorado River water is used for agriculture, including water-intensive crops like alfalfa and hay, raising stakes for farmers and food supply.
- Negotiations among basin states are at an impasse with a Bureau of Reclamation deadline looming; a federal plan could trigger litigation and heightened uncertainty.
- Warm, low-elevation winters have left snow concentrated at higher altitudes, increasing the chance of early landscape drying and a longer wildfire season.
Background
Snowpack acts as natural reservoir storage in the West: winter accumulation stores water that melts slowly in spring and summer, feeding rivers, reservoirs and groundwater recharge. That seasonal buffering is critical for urban supplies, farming in large irrigation districts, hydropower generation and river ecosystems that support tribes and fisheries. Decades of human development routed large proportions of mountain runoff into agricultural fields and cities, creating heavy demand on the Colorado River and other basins.
Climate trends and long-term overuse have strained the region’s supply system. Record warmth this winter reduced the zone of snow to higher elevations and reduced accumulation when precipitation fell as rain rather than snow. The combination of persistent high pressure and anomalous warmth over recent months contributed to conditions experts describe as historically low for the time of year. Those physical conditions are colliding with political deadlines: basin states and the federal Bureau of Reclamation are negotiating shortages and allocation rules while supply projections deteriorate.
Main event
Federal monitoring shows the western snowpack and snow-water equivalent far below seasonal normals, with satellite-derived snow cover near one-third of typical extent. Statewide monitoring networks recorded some of the lowest values on record: Oregon, Colorado and Utah are among the states reporting their smallest snowpacks since records began in the early 1980s. The deficit is broad rather than localized, affecting multiple river basins that supply agriculture and cities.
The Colorado River basin is a central focus because more than two-thirds of its flow originates as mountain snowmelt. The river spans roughly 1,450 miles (2,300 km) and supports about 40 million people in seven US states, parts of Mexico, and 5.5 million acres (2.23 million hectares) of farmland. With roughly 80% of the river’s water used for agriculture, any sustained drop in snow-derived runoff would force difficult allocation choices and likely reduce irrigation deliveries.
Negotiators from basin states have failed to reach consensus on new cuts and contingency plans as drought and climate pressures mount. The US Bureau of Reclamation set an end-of-week deadline for a negotiated deal before the agency applies its own plan, a move expected to prompt legal challenges and further uncertainty. Water managers say the physical shortage—record-low snowpack and poor February outlooks—creates its own urgent deadline independent of the political timetable.
Meteorologists in early February forecast a period of cooler, wetter weather that could deliver some snow to parts of the West, but scientists caution that a few storms are unlikely to erase large deficits. State climatologists and researchers note the recent pattern’s persistence and the low starting point for snow—meaning that even an active period may only reduce, not eliminate, the shortfall for the season.
Analysis & implications
Hydrologically, the immediate consequence of low snowpack is reduced spring and summer runoff. Snow-water equivalent deficit means reservoir refill will be limited, constraining deliveries for urban systems, agricultural districts and hydropower operators. Areas that rely heavily on snowmelt timing to manage irrigation may face cuts earlier in the season, complicating planting and feed strategies for livestock operations that depend on alfalfa and hay.
Politically and legally, the Colorado River negotiations will be shaped by this hydrologic reality. A federal directive from the Bureau of Reclamation could redistribute shortages across states, tribes and Mexico, but it may also provoke litigation by parties that see more favorable alternatives. The combination of an active legal environment and a physical shortfall reduces the margin for incremental compromise, increasing the likelihood of contentious outcomes.
From an ecological perspective, early snowmelt and reduced streamflows stress riverine habitats and species that time life-cycle events to seasonal flows. Lower flows and warmer water temperatures can harm fish, reduce wetland recharge and impair water quality. Tribes, which hold diverse water rights and cultural ties to rivers, face acute impacts that often fall outside headline allocation debates but are central to basin equity and resilience.
Fire risk is another downstream effect. When snow arrives late or melts early, soils and vegetation dry sooner, lengthening the season for wildfire ignition and spread. Early-season drying also impairs soil moisture that supports late-summer crops and forest health, potentially compounding economic and ecological losses across affected states.
Comparison & data
| Metric | Reported value |
|---|---|
| Relative snow cover (typical for date) | ~33% |
| Stations below median snow-water content (1 Feb) | 91% |
| Colorado River length | 1,450 miles (2,300 km) |
| People served by Colorado River | ~40 million |
| Irrigated farmland supplied | 5.5 million acres (2.23 million ha) |
| Share to agriculture | ~80% |
These figures summarize monitoring snapshots and basin statistics that contextualize the current drought: the snow deficit is large and geographically broad, while the Colorado River’s scale and allocation profile amplify the consequences. Short-term storm forecasts may chip away at deficits, but the baseline values show how deep the shortfall is compared with multi-decade norms.
Reactions & quotes
“This winter’s warmth and lack of accumulation are historically unusual for the time of year,”
Mark Serreze, director, National Snow and Ice Data Center (paraphrased)
Serreze, who has worked on Colorado snow monitoring for decades, described the current pattern as unusually persistent compared with past winters and warned of broad hydrologic consequences.
“Portions of every western state are seeing snowpacks as bad as any recorded for this date,”
Daniel Swain, climate scientist (paraphrased)
Swain highlighted the regional scope of the deficit and tied it to record warmth in the preceding weeks, noting the exceptional nature of the pattern.
“The river won’t wait for process or politics,”
Matt Rice, Southwest director, American Rivers (paraphrased)
Rice’s remark was offered to emphasize the urgency felt by conservationists and water managers: physical shortages will produce impacts regardless of the pace of negotiations.
Unconfirmed
- Whether upcoming storms will deliver enough accumulation to restore snowpack to near-average levels this season remains uncertain and depends on storm frequency, intensity and elevation.
- Specific allocation cuts by the Bureau of Reclamation and how courts may rule if litigation ensues are unresolved and could change rapidly as negotiations proceed.
- The precise timing and severity of any earlier wildfire season triggered by this snow drought depend on spring temperatures, vegetation moisture and ignition patterns and are therefore not fully predictable.
Bottom line
The western United States is facing a historically severe snow drought that sharply reduces the seasonally critical mountain water supply. Key basins, including the Colorado River, are entering the spring with deficits that will constrain reservoir fills, irrigation deliveries and ecological flows, and will shape politically fraught negotiations over water sharing.
Short-term storms may provide localized relief, but the scale of the current deficit and the persistence of warmer winter patterns reduce the likelihood of a quick recovery. Policymakers, water managers and communities should prepare for constrained supplies, heightened wildfire risk and complex legal and allocation decisions in the months ahead.
Sources
- The Guardian (news report)
- National Snow and Ice Data Center (federal research center and monitoring)
- U.S. Bureau of Reclamation (federal agency)
- American Rivers (conservation NGO)
- Western Regional Climate Center (regional research center)
- Colorado State University, State Climatologist office (academic)