Lead
The Universal Pictures sequel Wicked: For Good is projected to deliver a global opening north of $200 million as it hits theaters over the Thanksgiving window. Industry forecasts peg roughly $125M–$150M or more from about 4,000 U.S. and Canadian locations and more than $70M from 78 overseas markets, with room for upside. If those estimates hold, the film would surpass the first Wicked’s record debut for a movie based on a Broadway musical. The rebound would come after a quiet autumn for cinemas and amid heavy presales and strong audience enthusiasm.
Key Takeaways
- Global weekend forecast: roughly $200M+ with upside potential based on industry sources.
- Domestic projection: approximately $125M–$150M+ opening across ~4,000 U.S./Canada theaters.
- International contribution: over $70M expected from 78 offshore markets in the opening frame.
- Pre-sales: Fandango reports Wicked: For Good as its top PG-rated advance seller in the U.S. and its best pre-seller of 2025.
- Comparative record: the 2024 Wicked opened to $112.5M domestic / $164M worldwide; the sequel is forecast to eclipse that benchmark.
- Box office history: Wicked‘s full theatrical haul reached $474.4M domestic and $284.2M international for a $758.7M global total.
- Exhibitor notes: large-format screens (IMAX/PLF) will run the film and will overlap with Disney’s Zootopia 2 during the Thanksgiving stretch.
Background
The original Wicked film—adapted from the Broadway musical by Winnie Holzman with songs by Stephen Schwartz—became a breakout cinematic event after opening in 2024. That production debuted to $112.5M domestically and $164M globally in its first weekend, and it went on to gross $474.4M in North America and $284.2M internationally, for a $758.7M worldwide total. The first installment also enjoyed strong awards-season recognition, earning 10 Oscar nominations and two wins for Production Design and Costumes.
Studios have been attentive to how Broadway-based IP performs on the global market, especially in holiday windows that can amplify family and female-leaning titles. Last year’s Thanksgiving frame was unusually lucrative—Wicked and Moana 2 combined to help produce a record $420M Thanksgiving week—so distributors are watching whether similar multipliers appear this season. Audience composition, presale velocity and the presence of alternative tentpoles (notably Zootopia 2) are important contextual variables for box-office forecasts.
Main Event
Universal opened the sequel widely, supported by a global publicity tour for director Jon M. Chu and principal cast members including Cynthia Erivo, Ariana Grande, Michelle Yeoh, Jeff Goldblum and Jonathan Bailey. The promotional circuit included stops in São Paulo (Nov. 4), Paris (Nov. 7), London (Nov. 10), Singapore (Nov. 13) and New York City (press event Monday evening). Those appearances have helped sustain international awareness ahead of staggered territory rollouts.
Advance-ticket metrics are strong: Fandango lists the movie as its biggest PG-rated advance ticket seller in the U.S. and its leading pre-seller of 2025. Large-format fan previews begin Wednesday evening at 6 p.m., with regular Thursday previews starting at 2 p.m. Wednesday/Amazon sneaks and Wednesday grosses are rolled into the Thursday total; by comparison, the first Wicked generated $19.2M in U.S./Canada previews during its launch.
Territorial distribution is broader than last year’s release. The sequel is playing in more markets now than the first film’s initial 61 territories; Japan will open later (March 6), while China—where the first film grossed about $2M in 2024—is cleared but awaiting a release date. Top offshore markets for the original included the U.K., Australia, Japan, Germany and South Korea; several of those territories open imminently for the sequel.
Analysis & Implications
Box-office projections for Wicked: For Good matter beyond the headline number. A $200M-plus weekend would signal that musical adaptations remain commercially potent when paired with wide holiday distribution and strong fan engagement. For Universal, a high opening boosts short-term revenue and strengthens negotiating leverage for ancillary windows such as streaming and premium VOD.
Presales concentrated among female audiences can create a pronounced frontloaded pattern, as seen with the first film’s opening week—forecasts must consider that momentum may concentrate business into the opening days and Thanksgiving frame rather than spread evenly. Exhibition partners and rival distributors estimating north of $175M domestically reflect that optimism, but frontloading risk tempers long-run multiples.
International performance will be decisive for the global tally. Markets like the U.K., Australia and South Korea historically contribute large shares to musicals’ offshore grosses; by contrast, China has been muted for the first film. If China schedules the sequel and it resonates, that could materially raise the worldwide total. Conversely, a weak China outing would cap upside from the largest available market.
Comparison & Data
| Title | Opening (Domestic) | Opening (Worldwide) | Final Global Gross |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wicked (2024) | $112.5M | $164M | $758.7M |
| Wicked: For Good (Projected) | $125M–$150M+ | $200M+ | — (weekend projection) |
These figures show the sequel’s projected step up from the first film’s already-strong debut. Historical patterns indicate that strong Thanksgiving presales and family-friendly appeal can lift five-day totals above opening-weekend estimates; however, overlap with other major releases (Zootopia 2) and frontloaded demand will affect the box-office multiple in subsequent weeks.
Reactions & Quotes
Industry observers and data providers have pointed to unusually high early demand and festival-style fan turnout at previews and premieres.
“Biggest PG-rated advance seller stateside; best pre-seller of 2025.”
Fandango (ticketing data)
CinemaScore and audience polling suggest the sequel tested strongly with viewers in early screenings.
“A” (CinemaScore grade reported for the franchise)
CinemaScore (audience polling)
Exhibitors note premium-format allocations and a packed preview schedule as indicators of a heavy opening weekend, though some warn that the business could be frontloaded.
“Large-format allocations and early previews point to concentrated opening demand, with potential frontloading.”
Exhibitor reports (industry sources)
Unconfirmed
- Exact weekend totals: the $200M+ figure is a forecast from industry sources and may change as actual grosses are reported.
- China release timing: the film is cleared for China but an official release date has not been announced by authorities or the distributor.
- Degree of frontloading: while presales are strong, the precise pace at which business will concentrate into opening day and Thanksgiving remains uncertain.
Bottom Line
Wicked: For Good arrives with considerable commercial momentum—robust presales, a global promotional push and favorable holiday timing make a $200M-plus global opening plausible. If achieved, the sequel will reset the benchmark for films adapted from Broadway musicals and offer a notable win for Universal amid an otherwise quiet autumn for theatrical attendance.
Key sensitivities to watch are the film’s China rollout, weekend/day-one concentration of ticket sales, and how premium-format sharing with Zootopia 2 affects screen counts. The next 72 hours of box-office reporting will clarify whether early optimism converts into a record-setting debut.