{"id":10839,"date":"2025-12-22T15:07:33","date_gmt":"2025-12-22T15:07:33","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/readtrends.com\/en\/feinberg-2025-oscar-predictions\/"},"modified":"2025-12-22T15:07:33","modified_gmt":"2025-12-22T15:07:33","slug":"feinberg-2025-oscar-predictions","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/readtrends.com\/en\/feinberg-2025-oscar-predictions\/","title":{"rendered":"Oscar Predictions via Feinberg Forecast: Scott&#8217;s End-of-2025 Rankings and Analysis for All Categories &#8211; The Hollywood Reporter"},"content":{"rendered":"<article>\n<p>In this end-of-year Feinberg Forecast, veteran awards analyst Scott Feinberg summarizes where the 2025 Oscar race stands as voting deadlines approach. Over a December weekend, new commercial and critical data for James Cameron\u2019s Avatar: Fire and Ash arrived \u2014 Rotten Tomatoes shows 67% critic approval and 91% audience approval, and the film opened worldwide to $345 million \u2014 data that complicates late-season trajectories. Across 24 Academy categories Feinberg updates frontrunners, threats and long shots, explains his methodology, and flags where history and branch voting behavior matter most. His central conclusion: Warner Bros.\u2019 One Battle After Another currently appears to be the strongest Best Picture force, but multiple races remain fluid with fewer than 90 days to go.<\/p>\n<h2>Key takeaways<\/h2>\n<ul>\n<li>Avatar: Fire and Ash opened to $345 million worldwide and carries 67% critics \/ 91% audience at Rotten Tomatoes, making its awards trajectory uncertain compared with 2009\u2019s Avatar (81%\/82%, $241.6M opening) and 2022\u2019s The Way of Water (76%\/92%, $441.7M).<\/li>\n<li>Feinberg projects nominees across all 24 Oscar categories in a final forecast for 2025, emphasizing campaign momentum, precursor awards and branch-specific voting patterns.<\/li>\n<li>One Battle After Another (Warner Bros.) is the clear Best Picture frontrunner after wins from major critics groups, the NBR and the Gothams, plus strong Globe and Critics Choice showings.<\/li>\n<li>Precursors cluster several likely acting nominees (DiCaprio, Moura, Hawke, Chalamet, Jordan, Edgerton) but Feinberg stresses that journalists\u2019 awards don\u2019t map directly to Academy acting-branch voting.<\/li>\n<li>International Feature shortlists favor Neon-distributed titles (It Was Just an Accident, No Other Choice, The Secret Agent, Sir\u0101t, Sentimental Value), creating a real possibility that multiple or all slots could come from a single distributor.<\/li>\n<li>In technical categories, F1, Frankenstein, Sinners and Avatar: Fire and Ash repeatedly appear across sound, visual effects, score and production-design shortlists, marking them as multi-category contenders.<\/li>\n<li>Animation and documentary branches have independent rhythms: Zootopia 2\u2019s $1.27 billion global haul makes it a commercial standout, while Netflix\u2019s The Perfect Neighbor and the five-hour My Undesirable Friends: Part I show strong doc momentum.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h2>Background<\/h2>\n<p>The Feinberg Forecast is a predictive exercise that synthesizes screenings, campaign activity, conversations with voters and historical precedents to estimate what Academy members will do, not what they should do. Scott Feinberg has tracked Oscar seasons for years and relies on pattern recognition across branches \u2014 for example, the relative insularity of the acting branch versus the broader participation in categories like cinematography or score. This year\u2019s calendar has been compressed at the finish, with several late releases and awards-group decisions shifting momentum in December.<\/p>\n<p>Precursor awards have shaped today\u2019s picture: LA and New York critics groups, the National Board of Review and the Gothams handed major prizes that amplified One Battle After Another\u2019s profile, while the Golden Globes and Critics Choice placed many titles (Marty Supreme, Sinners, Hamnet, Sentimental Value) in repeat contention. Still, Feinberg repeatedly cautions that critics and journalists are not Academy actors, directors or craftspeople \u2014 branches vote in distinct ways, so mapping journalist ballots to Oscars always carries risks.<\/p>\n<h2>Main event<\/h2>\n<p>Best Picture appears to be consolidating around One Battle After Another after a sweep of top critics prizes and a heavy showing in precursor nominations. Feinberg lists a top ten of likely Best Picture nominees, with Warner Bros.\u2019 film first, followed by Focus\u2019s Hamnet and several Neon and Netflix titles. He ranks films as frontrunners, major threats, possibilities and long shots based on campaign strength and branch-specific appeal.<\/p>\n<p>Directing is largely tracking Best Picture, with Paul Thomas Anderson positioned as the leading contender for One Battle After Another, joined by Ryan Coogler, Chlo\u00e9 Zhao, Joachim Trier and Guillermo del Toro in the projected five. Jafar Panahi\u2019s momentum improved after the Dec. 1 news of an in-absentia sentence in Iran; his film\u2019s international financing and festival wins gave him awards traction beyond what many expected.<\/p>\n<p>Acting races show journalistic support for names such as Leonardo DiCaprio, Timoth\u00e9e Chalamet, Wagner Moura and Ethan Hawke, but Feinberg stresses low-profile releases can lose actor-branch votes. In supporting categories, a tight pool (Skarsg\u00e5rd, Del Toro, Penn, Mescal, Elordi, Sandler) looks likely to produce most Oscar nominees, with only minor shuffling expected unless a late surge occurs.<\/p>\n<h2>Analysis &#038; implications<\/h2>\n<p>Feinberg\u2019s central analytic lens is branch behavior: the directors, actors, writers, craftspeople and technical voters each have different viewing habits, institutional memories and aesthetic priorities. The result is that some precursors (critics groups, Globes, Critics Choice) are useful but imperfect predictors; the most reliable signals come from groups composed of practitioners \u2014 for instance, composers predicting score races or cinematographers predicting camera work. Campaign strategy that targets branch voters directly can therefore outweigh broader popular acclaim.<\/p>\n<p>Late releases complicate forecasts. Avatar: Fire and Ash\u2019s strong audience approval and blockbuster opening suggest box-office momentum, but its lower critic rating relative to the 2009 Avatar and the mixed outcome for The Way of Water in 2022 make its awards fate ambiguous. Filmmakers with long careers (James Cameron) have institutional recognition, yet repeated franchise work can erode novelty with some voters. Feinberg frames Cameron as a wild card: technically formidable but potentially suffering from familiarity fatigue in certain Academy constituencies.<\/p>\n<p>The International Feature shortlist reveals distribution dynamics: Neon\u2019s heavy slate (several films on the shortlist) increases the chance of dominance in the category, which would be notable because distributors rarely secure multiple foreign-language noms in a single year at this scale. If Neon indeed converts multiple shortlist placements into nominations, that will reflect both festival win leverage and focused Oscar-season campaigning across branches.<\/p>\n<h2>Comparison &#038; data<\/h2>\n<figure>\n<table>\n<thead>\n<tr>\n<th>Film<\/th>\n<th>Critics RT<\/th>\n<th>Audience RT<\/th>\n<th>Worldwide Opening<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td>Avatar (2009)<\/td>\n<td>81%<\/td>\n<td>82%<\/td>\n<td>$241.6M<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Avatar: The Way of Water (2022)<\/td>\n<td>76%<\/td>\n<td>92%<\/td>\n<td>$441.7M<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Avatar: Fire and Ash (2025)<\/td>\n<td>67%<\/td>\n<td>91%<\/td>\n<td>$345M<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/figure>\n<p>The table above places Fire and Ash in context: audience enthusiasm is strong, but critical response and the comparative opening weekend both alter expectations versus prior franchise installments. In other data points, Zootopia 2\u2019s $1.27 billion global gross makes it the second-highest-grossing film of 2025, and it sits apart in animation as a commercial behemoth. Feinberg also flags shortlists (e.g., Academy shortlists for sound, VFX, music) as decisive mid-season gates that shape campaign resource allocation and voter attention.<\/p>\n<h2>Reactions &#038; quotes<\/h2>\n<blockquote>\n<p>&#8220;A number of films have had strong showings since our last update, but One Battle After Another is way out in front of the rest of the field.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p><cite>Scott Feinberg \/ The Hollywood Reporter<\/cite><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n<p>&#8220;It\u2019s too early to project a trajectory for Avatar: Fire and Ash, but stay tuned.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p><cite>Scott Feinberg \/ The Hollywood Reporter<\/cite><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n<p>&#8220;Journalists\u2019 awards are informative but not determinative \u2014 branches behave differently, and that keeps several races open.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p><cite>Scott Feinberg \/ The Hollywood Reporter<\/cite><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<aside>\n<details>\n<summary>Explainer: How Feinberg Forecasts Work<\/summary>\n<p>Feinberg\u2019s method combines screenings, historical precedent, precursor awards, box-office and streaming performance, public campaign activity and confidential conversations with Academy voters. He weights branch-specific signals more heavily than general-press awards when projecting nominees and winners. Historical anomalies (journalists\u2019 favorites excluded by the Academy) are explicitly considered, and late-season release patterns or sudden news events (legal developments, distributor decisions) are modeled as potential disruptors to momentum.<\/p>\n<\/details>\n<\/aside>\n<h2>Unconfirmed<\/h2>\n<ul>\n<li>Whether Avatar: Fire and Ash\u2019s $345M opening will translate into significant Academy support remains unconfirmed and dependent on branch-specific responses.<\/li>\n<li>The prospect that Neon could secure most or all International Feature nominations is plausible but unconfirmed; final voting by Academy members will decide.<\/li>\n<li>Any internal Academy sentiment about James Cameron\u2019s repeated franchise work and its effect on director-branch voting is anecdotal and not independently verified.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h2>Bottom line<\/h2>\n<p>Feinberg\u2019s end-of-2025 forecast presents One Battle After Another as the strongest Best Picture contender, supported by an array of critics\u2019 prizes and precursor nominations. Still, multiple categories remain open: late releases, distributor campaigning, and the idiosyncrasies of branch voting can and often do alter outcomes between December and final voting.<\/p>\n<p>For readers tracking the race, pay attention to branch-specific shortlists and screenings in January, how late box-office and streaming numbers affect visibility, and any campaign moves that target individual branches rather than the general press. Feinberg\u2019s forecast is designed to predict Academy behavior by blending data and institutional knowledge \u2014 but, as always, surprises remain possible in an awards season that still has momentum shifts ahead.<\/p>\n<h2>Sources<\/h2>\n<ul>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.hollywoodreporter.com\/lists\/feinberg-forecast-oscar-predictions-all-categories\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">The Hollywood Reporter<\/a> (industry analysis \/ original Feinberg Forecast)<\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.rottentomatoes.com\/search?search=Avatar%20Fire%20and%20Ash\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Rotten Tomatoes<\/a> (review aggregator)<\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.boxofficemojo.com\/search\/?q=Avatar+Fire+and+Ash\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Box Office Mojo (search)<\/a> (box-office database)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/article>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>In this end-of-year Feinberg Forecast, veteran awards analyst Scott Feinberg summarizes where the 2025 Oscar race stands as voting deadlines approach. Over a December weekend, new commercial and critical data for James Cameron\u2019s Avatar: Fire and Ash arrived \u2014 Rotten Tomatoes shows 67% critic approval and 91% audience approval, and the film opened worldwide to &#8230; <a title=\"Oscar Predictions via Feinberg Forecast: Scott&#8217;s End-of-2025 Rankings and Analysis for All Categories &#8211; The Hollywood Reporter\" class=\"read-more\" href=\"https:\/\/readtrends.com\/en\/feinberg-2025-oscar-predictions\/\" aria-label=\"Read more about Oscar Predictions via Feinberg Forecast: Scott&#8217;s End-of-2025 Rankings and Analysis for All Categories &#8211; The Hollywood Reporter\">Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":10830,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"rank_math_title":"Feinberg's 2025 Oscar Predictions \u2014 The Hollywood Reporter","rank_math_description":"Scott Feinberg\u2019s end-of-2025 Feinberg Forecast ranks frontrunners and threats across all 24 Oscar categories, analyzing precursor awards, branch voting and late-season momentum.","rank_math_focus_keyword":"feinberg, oscars 2025, predictions, best picture, academy","footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-10839","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-top-stories"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/readtrends.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10839","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/readtrends.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/readtrends.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/readtrends.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/readtrends.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=10839"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/readtrends.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10839\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/readtrends.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/10830"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/readtrends.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=10839"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/readtrends.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=10839"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/readtrends.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=10839"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}