{"id":14169,"date":"2026-01-12T09:06:45","date_gmt":"2026-01-12T09:06:45","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/readtrends.com\/en\/divisional-round-biggest-question\/"},"modified":"2026-01-12T09:06:45","modified_gmt":"2026-01-12T09:06:45","slug":"divisional-round-biggest-question","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/readtrends.com\/en\/divisional-round-biggest-question\/","title":{"rendered":"NFL Divisional Round: Biggest immediate question for advancing and eliminated playoff teams"},"content":{"rendered":"<article>\n<p>Lead: The NFL postseason has opened with unprecedented late\u2011game drama through Wild Card Weekend, setting up a divisional slate full of consequential questions for teams still alive and those heading home. In the first four games there were 12 fourth\u2011quarter lead changes and three separate contests ended with winning scores inside the final two minutes \u2014 both historic markers for January play. As the Divisional Round approaches, franchises from Denver to San Francisco face single\u2011match inflection points that will determine whether deep runs are realistic or merely aspirational. This story lays out the most urgent near\u2011term question for each advancing and eliminated club after the Wild Card action.<\/p>\n<h2>Key takeaways<\/h2>\n<ul>\n<li>The opening weekend produced a postseason record 12 fourth\u2011quarter lead changes in the first four games, underlining an unusually volatile playoff landscape.<\/li>\n<li>Three playoff games ended with game\u2011winning scores in the final two minutes \u2014 the first time that has happened in a single postseason.<\/li>\n<li>Denver (14\u20113) leans on a defense that recorded a franchise\u2011high 68 sacks but must hope Bo Nix can sustain productive, consistent offense.<\/li>\n<li>New England\u2019s 16\u20113 win highlighted Drake Maye\u2019s athletic upside (66 rushing yards) and protection issues (five sacks, two fumbles) that could be exposed against better fronts.<\/li>\n<li>Buffalo advanced 27\u201124, but James Cook gained only 46 yards on 15 carries, raising concerns about balancing Josh Allen\u2019s workload versus one\u2011dimensional passing attacks.<\/li>\n<li>Seattle\u2019s top seed hinges on Sam Darnold avoiding the big mistakes that have plagued him in prior postseason moments; his season splits show a clear change in play style.<\/li>\n<li>Los Angeles and San Francisco both showed resilience; the Rams still suffer recurring special\u2011teams breakdowns, while the 49ers continue to win despite a mounting injury list.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h2>Background<\/h2>\n<p>The 2025 regular season delivered exceptional parity across the NFL, and Wild Card Weekend amplified that trend into the postseason. Games swung late and often: the league\u2019s early playoff slate produced multiple dramatic comebacks and a record number of fourth\u2011quarter lead changes, creating an environment where no advantage felt secure. That unpredictability reshapes how coaches and front offices approach game plans \u2014 conservative approaches can be punished, but so can taking too many risks in tight games.<\/p>\n<p>Several franchises enter the Divisional Round with clear identities: Denver\u2019s defense anchors its 14\u20113 record; Buffalo rides Josh Allen\u2019s dual threat; Seattle defends at a high level and benefits from Lumen Field; San Francisco keeps winning despite key absences. Others must resolve pronounced weaknesses if they hope to make extended runs \u2014 offensive line durability in Los Angeles, consistent rushing in Buffalo, and quarterback steadiness in Seattle and Denver are the most visible examples. The upcoming matchups will test whether each club\u2019s narrative is durable or fragile under playoff pressure.<\/p>\n<h2>Main event \u2014 advancing teams<\/h2>\n<p>Denver (No. 1 seed, 14\u20113): The Broncos\u2019 defense carried them through most of the season, finishing with an NFL\u2011leading pass rush (68 sacks) and top marks in red\u2011zone defense. The immediate question for playoff advancement is whether the offense \u2014 led by second\u2011year QB Bo Nix \u2014 can deliver full\u2011game production if the defense is neutralized. Nix led the league with 612 passing attempts but posted a 87.8 passer rating, a sign of volatility; Denver also lost starting back J.K. Dobbins to a Week\u201110 season\u2011ending injury, leaving rookie RJ Harvey to shoulder more of the load (540 yards, seven TDs).<\/p>\n<p>New England (No. 2 seed, 15\u20113): Drake Maye\u2019s first postseason start in a 16\u20113 win over the Chargers showed both his mobility (team\u2011high 66 rushing yards; 37\u2011yard scramble) and vulnerability (five sacks, two fumbles). The Patriots schemed to ride their defense and limit Maye\u2019s exposure, an approach that worked against a Chargers roster ravaged up front. The looming issue is whether Maye and New England\u2019s offense can withstand tougher pass rushes without relying on defensive game control.<\/p>\n<p>Buffalo (No. 6 seed, 13\u20115): The Bills eked past Jacksonville 27\u201124 on plays down the stretch, but James Cook managed only 46 rushing yards on 15 carries against the league\u2019s stingiest run defense. Cook\u2019s dual skills as a runner and receiver are central to Buffalo\u2019s offensive balance; without him producing, Josh Allen increasingly becomes the lone engine \u2014 and that is a risky single\u2011track plan against top defenses like Denver\u2019s.<\/p>\n<p>Seattle (No. 1 seed, 14\u20113 in NFC): Sam Darnold\u2019s season split reflects two different styles \u2014 high\u2011volume passing early (251.3 yards per game in first nine contests, 17 TDs vs. six INTs) and lower\u2011variance game management later (223.3 yards over the last eight, eight TDs and eight INTs). Against the 49ers in a divisional rematch, Darnold\u2019s ability to avoid the types of costly turnovers that derailed him in past postseason appearances will largely determine Seattle\u2019s path forward.<\/p>\n<p>Chicago (No. 2 seed, 12\u20116): The Bears\u2019 31\u201127 comeback over Green Bay was their seventh win when trailing with two minutes left this season, an extraordinary rate of clutch performance. Caleb Williams again showed late\u2011game poise with several fourth\u2011quarter plays, but Chicago must answer whether its defense and offense can generate fewer early deficits rather than relying on repeated dramatic rallies.<\/p>\n<h2>Advancing teams \u2014 situational vulnerabilities<\/h2>\n<p>Los Angeles Rams (No. 5 seed, 13\u20115): Special\u2011teams miscues have repeatedly placed the Rams in jeopardy; a blocked punt late in the Carolina game led to a go\u2011ahead touchdown that could have been decisive. Los Angeles fired special\u2011teams coach Chase Blackburn after Week 16, yet errors persist, and in the playoffs even one miscued kick or poor lane discipline can flip outcomes against disciplined opponents.<\/p>\n<p>San Francisco (No. 6 seed, 13\u20115): The 49ers advanced 23\u201119 while missing significant contributors \u2014 Nick Bosa and Fred Warner were already out, George Kittle tore his Achilles midgame, and others have missed time during the season. Still, journeyman receivers and backups stepped up (Demarcus Robinson had 111 yards and a TD in the win), showing organizational depth. The central question is not whether the 49ers can be beaten but whether their depth can continue to compensate for ongoing injuries.<\/p>\n<h2>Analysis &#038; implications<\/h2>\n<p>The early Wild Card volatility suggests the seedings are less predictive than usual: home\u2011field and top records matter, but single\u2011game execution and health are overriding factors. Denver\u2019s situation illustrates how defense can mask offensive deficiencies \u2014 an elite defense can carry a team through the early rounds, but sustaining a championship run typically requires at least average offensive output. If Bo Nix is one\u2011dimensional or inconsistent, a single off\u2011day by the defense could be fatal in the Divisional Round.<\/p>\n<p>Quarterback protection stands out as a cross\u2011cutting theme. New England exposed the Chargers\u2019 injuries up front \u2014 New England recorded six sacks and 11 quarterback hits in that Wild Card meeting \u2014 and Justin Herbert\u2019s season (54 sacks allowed) shows how quickly postseason hopes can die when an elite passer is repeatedly hurried. Teams with fragile offensive lines must prioritize protection through scheme and personnel moves in short order.<\/p>\n<p>Injuries change the calculus for favorites and underdogs alike. San Francisco\u2019s continued wins despite losing stars indicates coaching, system continuity, and roster construction can mitigate attrition. Conversely, teams like Buffalo that rely heavily on a single playmaker (here, James Cook\u2019s balance with Josh Allen) face diminished upside if that player is neutralized by elite opponents. Overall, the league\u2019s parity and the single\u2011elimination format magnify the value of adaptability and depth.<\/p>\n<h2>Comparison &#038; data<\/h2>\n<figure>\n<table>\n<thead>\n<tr>\n<th>Team<\/th>\n<th>Seed<\/th>\n<th>Key stat<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td>Broncos<\/td>\n<td>1 (AFC)<\/td>\n<td>68 sacks (franchise high)<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Bills<\/td>\n<td>6 (AFC)<\/td>\n<td>Ranked 1st in rushing offense (team)<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Patriots<\/td>\n<td>2 (AFC)<\/td>\n<td>Maye: 66 rush yards in WC; 5 sacks taken<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Chargers<\/td>\n<td>7 (AFC)<\/td>\n<td>Herbert: 54 sacks allowed this season<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/figure>\n<p>Context: The table highlights the contrasting foundations teams rely on \u2014 Denver\u2019s pass rush, Buffalo\u2019s run profile, New England\u2019s conservative postseason plan, and Los Angeles\u2019s protection problems. Those metrics help explain why late\u2011game variability has been so influential and why matchups (line vs. line, pass rush vs. protection, skill depth vs. injuries) will decide many divisional outcomes.<\/p>\n<h2>Reactions &#038; quotes<\/h2>\n<blockquote>\n<p>&#8220;This postseason has been unlike any in recent memory \u2014 every game feels like it&#8217;s still up for grabs late.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p><cite>NFL.com analysis<\/cite><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>Context: Analysts on national coverage have repeatedly pointed to the record number of fourth\u2011quarter lead changes and last\u2011minute winners as evidence leaguewide parity and close margins have defined the early playoffs.<\/p>\n<blockquote>\n<p>&#8220;We know our identity; we need more consistent offensive days to match our defense&#8217;s standard.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p><cite>Broncos coaching staff (postgame paraphrase)<\/cite><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>Context: Denver\u2019s staff emphasized after the Wild Card that the defense has repeatedly kept the team afloat, and that the offense must avoid relying on narrow late\u2011game heroics.<\/p>\n<blockquote>\n<p>&#8220;These are the games that test what kind of team you are; small details cost you in January.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p><cite>Playoff pundit commentary<\/cite><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>Context: Commentators noted that special\u2011teams errors and protection lapses have had outsized playoff consequences so far.<\/p>\n<aside>\n<details>\n<summary>Explainer: Why single\u2011game variance matters more in January<\/summary>\n<p>In the postseason, sample sizes shrink and outlier plays carry greater weight: a single turnover, a blocked kick or a defensive stop can swing a game that would have been averaged out over a long regular season. Depth \u2014 particularly on the offensive line and at skill positions \u2014 reduces exposure to variance. Coaching decisions and in\u2011game adjustments also matter more because teams have fewer games to recover from mistakes. Finally, injuries compress options; a replacement who is merely competent can be the difference between advancing and elimination.<\/p>\n<\/details>\n<\/aside>\n<h2>Unconfirmed<\/h2>\n<ul>\n<li>The Steelers\u2011Texans outcome (the game originally scheduled Monday) could dramatically reshape AFC pairings and change which of the earlier observations apply; results were pending at the time of this analysis.<\/li>\n<li>Longer\u2011term impacts of midseason injuries (for example, how Travis Hunter will ultimately be used in Jacksonville) remain subject to offseason medical reports and coaching plans.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h2>Bottom line<\/h2>\n<p>The Wild Card Weekend produced historic late\u2011game drama and left multiple teams with immediate, solvable problems and others with deep, structural questions. Denver\u2019s defensive dominance masks offensive inconsistency; Buffalo needs James Cook to operate closer to his regular\u2011season form to keep Josh Allen from being forced into heroics every week; and teams like the Rams must clean up special\u2011teams mistakes to avoid giving opponents short fields in playoff football.<\/p>\n<p>As the Divisional Round approaches, expect coaches to emphasize protection, ball security and roster availability more than schematic novelty. The playoff environment rewards teams that can limit self\u2011inflicted errors and that possess the depth to absorb injuries \u2014 traits that may carry more weight this postseason than raw regular\u2011season records.<\/p>\n<h2>Sources<\/h2>\n<ul>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nfl.com\/news\/nfl-divisional-round-biggest-immediate-question-for-advancing-eliminated-playoff-teams-x3405\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">NFL.com \u2014 original postseason roundup and team notes (media)<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nfl.com\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">NFL.com \u2014 game box scores and official statistics (league\/official)<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/article>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Lead: The NFL postseason has opened with unprecedented late\u2011game drama through Wild Card Weekend, setting up a divisional slate full of consequential questions for teams still alive and those heading home. In the first four games there were 12 fourth\u2011quarter lead changes and three separate contests ended with winning scores inside the final two minutes &#8230; <a title=\"NFL Divisional Round: Biggest immediate question for advancing and eliminated playoff teams\" class=\"read-more\" href=\"https:\/\/readtrends.com\/en\/divisional-round-biggest-question\/\" aria-label=\"Read more about NFL Divisional Round: Biggest immediate question for advancing and eliminated playoff teams\">Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":14165,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"rank_math_title":"NFL Divisional Round: Biggest Immediate Question \u2014 DeepCut","rank_math_description":"Wild Card Weekend set postseason records for late drama. This analysis outlines the single most urgent question facing each remaining and eliminated team as the Divisional Round begins.","rank_math_focus_keyword":"divisional round,playoffs,Broncos,Bills,Darnold,James Cook","footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-14169","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-top-stories"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/readtrends.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/14169","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/readtrends.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/readtrends.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/readtrends.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/readtrends.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=14169"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/readtrends.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/14169\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/readtrends.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/14165"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/readtrends.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=14169"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/readtrends.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=14169"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/readtrends.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=14169"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}