{"id":22053,"date":"2026-03-02T23:07:44","date_gmt":"2026-03-02T23:07:44","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/readtrends.com\/en\/big-east-bubble-small-conference-preview\/"},"modified":"2026-03-02T23:07:44","modified_gmt":"2026-03-02T23:07:44","slug":"big-east-bubble-small-conference-preview","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/readtrends.com\/en\/big-east-bubble-small-conference-preview\/","title":{"rendered":"Forde Minutes: Big East Bubble Burst and Small-Conference Tournament Previews &#8211; Sports Illustrated"},"content":{"rendered":"<article>\n<p>The short form of The Minutes this week: as conference tournaments ramp toward Selection Sunday, the Big East\u2019s much\u2011heralded revenue\u2011sharing edge has not translated into a multi\u2011bid league; instead, Connecticut remains the conference\u2019s lone national title contender while several programs underperformed. Over the next two weeks more than 300 teams remain alive in postseason play, and a string of small\u2011conference tournaments \u2014 from the Ohio Valley to the America East \u2014 will decide many NCAA automatic bids. This dispatch summarizes what went wrong in the Big East, previews the mid\u2011major brackets and highlights breakout players, coaches and a notable Division II streak.<\/p>\n<h2>Key Takeaways<\/h2>\n<ul>\n<li>The Big East appears headed to a three\u2011bid NCAA Tournament in 2026, tying the conference\u2019s fewest bids in its 46\u2011year history unless an unexpected winner emerges at Madison Square Garden next week.<\/li>\n<li>The Rev Share Era assumption that non\u2011football Big East schools would immediately convert $20.5 million shares into basketball dominance proved overstated; some programs spent poorly or remain structurally limited.<\/li>\n<li>Across 16 small conferences previewed, seeding and KenPom ratings range from the Coastal Athletic (15th) and Big Sky (16th) to the America East (30th) and Northeast (29th), underlining the uneven quality of automatic\u2011bid contenders.<\/li>\n<li>Several mid\u2011major players stand out statistically: Tennessee State\u2019s Aaron Nkrumah (17.6 PPG, 6.0 RPG, 2.9 SPG) and Hofstra\u2019s Cruz Davis (20.7 PPG, 4.7 APG) are among the top scorers likely to carry their teams into the Little Dance.<\/li>\n<li>Coaching narratives to watch include Grant McCasland steadying Texas Tech without JT Toppin and Eric Musselman\u2019s USC sliding after a five\u2011game skid and the loss of Chad Baker\u2011Mazara.<\/li>\n<li>Nova Southeastern (Division II) is chasing its 100th consecutive home win \u2014 a streak believed to be second only to Kentucky\u2019s 129\u2011game run (1943\u201355).<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h2>Background<\/h2>\n<p>When the House v. NCAA settlement and the subsequent revenue\u2011sharing framework arrived, pundits predicted a seismic shift favoring conferences with basketball\u2011first membership. The logic was straightforward: conferences with few or no Power Five football programs could allocate most of a $20.5 million share directly to men\u2019s basketball recruiting and NIL, while football\u2011first leagues would split resources. Coaches and athletic directors from football\u2011heavy conferences voiced alarm in 2024 and 2025, warning that a funding imbalance could create a competitive cliff.<\/p>\n<p>That scenario relied on several assumptions that have not held up. First, $20.5 million is not a uniform, hard cap in practice \u2014 some institutions have access to larger budgets \u2014 and football revenue still underwrites far larger overall athletic spending at many schools. Second, adapting institutional philosophy and donor behavior takes time: private, traditionally frugal basketball schools do not always pivot to big NIL spending overnight. Third, competitive recruiting markets, transfer portal dynamics and reduced willingness among major\u2011conference powers to cede ground on NIL have limited the theoretical advantage for basketball\u2011first conferences.<\/p>\n<h2>Main Event<\/h2>\n<p>The Big East\u2019s season ended with Connecticut as the clear headliner: UConn remains the only team in the conference that projects as a national title contender. St. John\u2019s performed respectably but fell short of national expectations, while Villanova has been uneven. Beyond those three, no Big East team looks likely to sniff the at\u2011large bubble: Seton Hall is the only other program that might claim consideration if a selector is feeling generous.<\/p>\n<p>Several Big East programs that invested heavily into the post\u2011settlement marketplace have not seen expected returns. St. John\u2019s donor Mike Repole\u2019s spending has not yet produced commensurate on\u2011court success; Providence\u2019s roster investment produced a middling 14\u201315 record; Creighton\u2019s five incoming transfers did not prevent one of its worst seasons in over a decade. By contrast, UConn and Villanova converted spending into results.<\/p>\n<p>Across the smaller conferences, tournament plays and storylines vary dramatically. The Ohio Valley (March 4\u20137) offers Tennessee State as a 21\u20139 top seed and SEMO as a dark horse; the Big South (March 4\u20138) is anchored by High Point\u2019s 27\u20134 run but clouded by Winthrop\u2019s injury concern. The Missouri Valley (March 5\u20138) sees Belmont as the 26\u20135 top seed but Illinois State (20\u201311) positioned to pull an upset. Each league presents distinct pathologies: one\u2011seeded favorites falling in low\u2011seed traps, hot streaks by secondaries, and coaches riding late momentum into the postseason.<\/p>\n<h2>Analysis &#038; Implications<\/h2>\n<p>The Big East experience in 2026 demonstrates that financial rules alone do not instantly reorder competitive balance. Money helps, but it must be paired with recruitment success, roster cohesion and program culture. Some Big East programs that attempted to ramp spending either misallocated resources or failed to retain talent during the transfer era; others have not scaled their giving to match football\u2011driven budgets elsewhere.<\/p>\n<p>For major conferences that feed large football programs, the apparent doubling of available budgets in some cases means the raw dollar gap is not as favorable to basketball\u2011only conferences as early commentary presumed. If a football school expands its total athletic pie, a modest percentage dedicated to basketball can still fund elite recruiting and NIL packages. That dynamic blunts any single\u2011season wealth shock from the Rev Share Era.<\/p>\n<p>At the mid\u2011major level, automatic bids remain a great equalizer. Conference tournaments reward teams peaking at the right time; history is full of double\u2011digit seeds and low\u2011profile programs making noise in March. The previews here underscore the diversity of pathways: coaches who preserve roster continuity (Illinois State), scorers on hot streaks (Camren Hunter), and teams built for tournament formats (coaching and bracket quirks in the Sun Belt) often outperform preseason expectations.<\/p>\n<h2>Comparison &#038; Data<\/h2>\n<figure>\n<table>\n<thead>\n<tr>\n<th>Conference<\/th>\n<th>KenPom Rank (of 31)<\/th>\n<th>Top Seed<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td>Coastal Athletic<\/td>\n<td>15<\/td>\n<td>UNC Wilmington \/ TBD<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Big Sky<\/td>\n<td>16<\/td>\n<td>Portland State \/ TBD<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Sun Belt<\/td>\n<td>20<\/td>\n<td>Troy<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>West Coast (WCC)<\/td>\n<td>8<\/td>\n<td>Gonzaga<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>America East<\/td>\n<td>30<\/td>\n<td>UMBC<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/figure>\n<p>The table samples KenPom conference rankings alongside top seeds to illustrate that a higher conference rating (lower numeric rank) often correlates with multiple NCAA at\u2011large opportunities. The WCC (8th) and Coastal Athletic (15th) include programs with at\u2011large profiles, while conferences ranked toward the high\u201120s and 30s are typically single\u2011bid leagues where the automatic qualifier is the only realistic March entrant.<\/p>\n<h2>Reactions &#038; Quotes<\/h2>\n<blockquote>\n<p>That\u2019s a problem. As long as it\u2019s equitable across all the high\u2011major schools, you\u2019re fine. But if one\u2019s got $22 million and one\u2019s got $5 million, that\u2019s a problem. We\u2019re not going to be able to compete.<\/p>\n<p><cite>Nate Oats, Alabama coach (to The Athletic)<\/cite><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>Oats\u2019 comment encapsulated an early fear among Power Five coaches that uneven revenue would produce a persistent competitive disadvantage. In practice, budget contours have shifted and other mechanisms \u2014 notably recruitment and NIL competition \u2014 have constrained a simple money\u2011equals\u2011wins narrative.<\/p>\n<blockquote>\n<p>Let\u2019s say that their revenue\u2011share number is double or triple what we have in the Big Ten because we\u2019re feeding football as well, what does that look like from a competitive standpoint?<\/p>\n<p><cite>Ross Bjork, Ohio State athletic director (to Boardroom)<\/cite><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>Bjork framed concerns about scale; club\u2011level resource gaps remain a talking point, even if the 2026 results show that money alone did not flip the national landscape.<\/p>\n<h2>\n<aside>\n<details>\n<summary>Explainer: Rev Share Era &#038; How It Was Supposed to Work<\/summary>\n<p>The Rev Share Era followed settlement changes intended to distribute new media and litigation proceeds across Division I members. The idea: conferences or schools receive additional per\u2011school payouts (commonly referenced as $20.5 million) that could be allocated to sports priorities. Basketball\u2011first conferences were assumed to funnel a larger share to men\u2019s basketball, enhancing recruiting and NIL. In reality, institutional budgets, football revenue, donor behavior and the timing of roster construction mean spending decisions and competitive outcomes unfold over multiple seasons rather than immediately.<\/p>\n<\/details>\n<\/aside>\n<\/h2>\n<h2>Unconfirmed<\/h2>\n<ul>\n<li>Precise per\u2011school revenue\u2011share allocations remain institutionally private; assertions that any single Big East school received two\u2011 or three\u2011times the payout publicized in 2024\u201325 are reported but not uniformly verified.<\/li>\n<li>Reports that certain schools planned to spend a fixed percentage of their share exclusively on men\u2019s basketball are based on donor\/administration statements and may have changed behind closed doors.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h2>Bottom Line<\/h2>\n<p>The 2026 snapshot shows the limits of a one\u2011season narrative: while the Rev Share Era promised a potential structural boost for basketball\u2011focused conferences, execution, institutional behavior and competitive countermeasures from football\u2011first programs have blunted that edge. Connecticut stands alone in the Big East as the national contender, and many Big East programs are still adjusting strategy and spending patterns.<\/p>\n<p>For the bulk of Division I programs, the coming conference tournaments are decisive. Dozens of teams will stake their postseason hopes on short bursts of form and bracket luck; mid\u2011majors and small conferences will once again provide much of March\u2019s unpredictability. Selection Sunday will tell whether any of this season\u2019s financial drama produced lasting competitive shifts or whether the old variables \u2014 coaching, roster continuity and timing \u2014 remain the strongest predictors of March success.<\/p>\n<h2>Sources<\/h2>\n<ul>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.si.com\/college-basketball\/forde-minutes-big-east-bubble-burst-and-small-conference-tournament-previews\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Sports Illustrated \u2014 Forde Minutes (media)<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/theathletic.com\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">The Athletic \u2014 coverage\/quotes referenced (media)<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/boardroom.com\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Boardroom \u2014 interview excerpts\/administration comments (media)<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/sports.yahoo.com\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Yahoo Sports \u2014 athletic director remarks (media)<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/kenpom.com\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">KenPom \u2014 conference efficiency rankings (analytics)<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/article>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The short form of The Minutes this week: as conference tournaments ramp toward Selection Sunday, the Big East\u2019s much\u2011heralded revenue\u2011sharing edge has not translated into a multi\u2011bid league; instead, Connecticut remains the conference\u2019s lone national title contender while several programs underperformed. Over the next two weeks more than 300 teams remain alive in postseason play, &#8230; <a title=\"Forde Minutes: Big East Bubble Burst and Small-Conference Tournament Previews &#8211; Sports Illustrated\" class=\"read-more\" href=\"https:\/\/readtrends.com\/en\/big-east-bubble-small-conference-preview\/\" aria-label=\"Read more about Forde Minutes: Big East Bubble Burst and Small-Conference Tournament Previews &#8211; Sports Illustrated\">Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":22047,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"rank_math_title":"Big East Bubble, Small-Conference Tourney Previews | Sports Illustrated","rank_math_description":"As conference tournaments begin, the Big East\u2019s rev\u2011share edge hasn\u2019t produced multiple NCAA bids; this guide previews small\u2011conference brackets, key players and implications for Selection Sunday.","rank_math_focus_keyword":"Big East,bubble,conference tournaments,mid-majors,Selection Sunday","footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-22053","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-top-stories"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/readtrends.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/22053","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/readtrends.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/readtrends.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/readtrends.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/readtrends.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=22053"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/readtrends.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/22053\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/readtrends.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/22047"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/readtrends.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=22053"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/readtrends.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=22053"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/readtrends.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=22053"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}