{"id":444,"date":"2025-09-01T19:02:23","date_gmt":"2025-09-01T19:02:23","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/readtrends.com\/en\/1-2m-fewer-immigrant-workers-under-trump\/"},"modified":"2025-09-01T19:02:23","modified_gmt":"2025-09-01T19:02:23","slug":"1-2m-fewer-immigrant-workers-under-trump","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/readtrends.com\/en\/1-2m-fewer-immigrant-workers-under-trump\/","title":{"rendered":"1.2M fewer immigrant workers in the U.S. labor force under Trump, preliminary data show"},"content":{"rendered":"<article>\n<p><time datetime=\"2025-09-01\">Sept. 1, 2025<\/time> \u2014 The U.S. labor force counted more than 1.2 million fewer immigrant workers from January through July, according to a Pew Research Center analysis of preliminary Census Bureau data, a shift coinciding with President Donald Trump\u2019s intensified immigration enforcement and a sharp drop in illegal border crossings. The decline is rippling through agriculture, construction and caregiving, sectors that rely heavily on immigrant labor.<\/p>\n<h2>Key takeaways<\/h2>\n<ul>\n<li>More than 1.2 million immigrants exited the U.S. labor force between January and July 2025, based on preliminary Census data analyzed by Pew.<\/li>\n<li>Immigrants account for nearly 20% of U.S. workers; they are 45% of farming\/fishing\/forestry, about 30% of construction, and 24% of service workers, per Pew.<\/li>\n<li>Immigrants make up roughly 43% of home health aides, raising concerns for long-term care staffing.<\/li>\n<li>The overall U.S. immigrant population is declining after the unauthorized population reached an estimated 14 million in 2023.<\/li>\n<li>Trump pledged mass removals and says deportations target \u201cdangerous criminals,\u201d yet most people detained by ICE have no criminal convictions, according to reporting.<\/li>\n<li>Construction payrolls have fallen in multiple metros; Riverside\u2013San Bernardino\u2013Ontario lost 7,200 jobs and Los Angeles\u2013Long Beach\u2013Glendale lost 6,200, industry data show.<\/li>\n<li>A Dallas Fed economist says immigrants typically contribute at least half of U.S. job growth; the recent collapse in inflows is constraining hiring.<\/li>\n<li>Farm groups and advocates report disrupted harvests and smaller crews amid stepped-up enforcement actions.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h2>Verified facts<\/h2>\n<p>Pew Research Center says preliminary Current Population Survey (CPS) data indicate a net decline of more than 1.2 million immigrant participants in the labor force from January through the end of July 2025. The figures cover both lawfully present and unauthorized immigrants. Pew senior researcher Stephanie Kramer notes the trend is large enough that, while preliminary, it appears real.<\/p>\n<p>Pew data show immigrants comprise close to one-fifth of all U.S. workers. Their presence is especially concentrated in certain fields: about 45% in farming, fishing and forestry; roughly 30% in construction; and about 24% in service occupations. Immigrants are also estimated to be around 43% of home health aides, a critical part of the long-term care workforce.<\/p>\n<p>The overall immigrant population has begun to edge down following an earlier run-up; the number of people in the U.S. without authorization was estimated at a record 14 million in 2023. The Trump administration has tightened enforcement and campaigned on deporting millions. While officials emphasize a focus on violent offenders, reporting indicates that a majority of those detained by ICE lack criminal convictions. Illegal border crossings have fallen markedly under the administration\u2019s policies.<\/p>\n<p>Pia Orrenius, a labor economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, says immigrants typically account for at least half of U.S. job growth. With border inflows \u201cessentially stopped,\u201d she argues, employers\u2019 capacity to expand payrolls has been hit.<\/p>\n<h2>On-the-ground effects<\/h2>\n<p>Farmworker advocates in Texas\u2019 Rio Grande Valley report enforcement actions at fields, packing facilities and nearby businesses that temporarily halted operations at points during the harvest. In California\u2019s Ventura County, growers relying on contractor crews described days with notably smaller teams amid fears of workplace checks and roadside stops.<\/p>\n<p>Construction firms are also feeling the pinch. An Associated General Contractors of America review of government employment data found losses across many metros, including declines of 7,200 construction jobs in Riverside\u2013San Bernardino\u2013Ontario, California, and 6,200 in Los Angeles\u2013Long Beach\u2013Glendale. The association\u2019s chief economist, Ken Simonson, says many contractors would hire if they could find qualified, willing workers and if intensified enforcement weren\u2019t disrupting labor supply.<\/p>\n<p>Health care unions warn that shortages could deepen in home- and facility-based care. SEIU leaders in California note that immigrants make up a large share of long-term care workers, and staffing gaps could limit access for millions of patients and families.<\/p>\n<h2>Context and impact<\/h2>\n<p>Preliminary data require caution: some of the observed decline could reflect departures to other countries, internal migration, removals, or survey undercounts. Still, multiple indicators point to a genuine contraction in immigrant labor force participation. If sustained, employers may face longer hiring times, rising wage pressure in labor-intensive roles, and production delays\u2014especially at peak agricultural seasons, on construction sites and in home health.<\/p>\n<p>Demographically, fewer working-age immigrants compound existing headwinds from an aging native-born population. In caregiving, where demand is rising, any prolonged shortfall in workers could translate into waitlists, reduced hours of service, or higher costs to consumers and public programs.<\/p>\n<h3>By the numbers: immigrant share of key sectors<\/h3>\n<table>\n<thead>\n<tr>\n<th>Sector<\/th>\n<th>Immigrant share<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td>Farming, fishing, forestry<\/td>\n<td>~45%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Construction<\/td>\n<td>~30%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Service occupations (overall)<\/td>\n<td>~24%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Home health aides<\/td>\n<td>~43%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<h2>Official statements and expert views<\/h2>\n<blockquote>\n<p>\u201cThe net-negative migration showing up since January looks real, even with preliminary data caveats and potential undercount,\u201d<\/p>\n<p><cite>Stephanie Kramer, Pew Research Center<\/cite><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n<p>\u201cWith the border inflow essentially stopped, it\u2019s having a large effect on the ability to create jobs,\u201d<\/p>\n<p><cite>Pia Orrenius, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas<\/cite><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n<p>\u201cContractors would hire more if they could find qualified workers\u2014and if tougher enforcement weren\u2019t disrupting labor supply,\u201d<\/p>\n<p><cite>Ken Simonson, Associated General Contractors of America<\/cite><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n<p>\u201cIf immigrant caregivers aren\u2019t there, families will struggle to find home care providers,\u201d<\/p>\n<p><cite>Arnulfo De La Cruz, SEIU 2015<\/cite><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<aside>\n<details>\n<summary>Explainer: What does \u201clabor force\u201d mean and why is the data preliminary?<\/summary>\n<p>The labor force includes people who are working or actively looking for work. Pew\u2019s findings come from the monthly CPS, a household survey subject to sampling error and revisions. \u201cPreliminary\u201d means results may change as additional months are collected and seasonal adjustments are refined.<\/p>\n<\/details>\n<\/aside>\n<h2>Unconfirmed or still developing<\/h2>\n<ul>\n<li>The precise mix of causes behind the 1.2 million decline\u2014voluntary departures, removals, or survey undercount\u2014has not been quantified.<\/li>\n<li>A detailed breakdown of how many affected workers are unauthorized vs. legally present has not been published.<\/li>\n<li>National scope and frequency of reported farm and worksite arrests beyond cited local incidents remain unclear.<\/li>\n<li>The durability of the downturn in immigrant labor force participation will depend on policy, enforcement intensity and future migration flows.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h2>Bottom line<\/h2>\n<p>Early 2025 brought a rare contraction in immigrant participation in the U.S. labor force, aligning with tighter enforcement and weaker inflows. The short-term result is labor strain where immigrants are most concentrated\u2014fields, job sites and home care. Whether that pressure eases will hinge on policy choices and the path of migration in the months ahead.<\/p>\n<h2>Sources<\/h2>\n<ul>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.pewresearch.org\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Pew Research Center<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.census.gov\/topics\/employment\/cps.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">U.S. Census Bureau \u2013 Current Population Survey<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.dallasfed.org\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.agc.org\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Associated General Contractors of America<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.seiu2015.org\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">SEIU Local 2015<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.ice.gov\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/ufw.org\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">United Farm Workers<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/apnews.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">AP News<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/article>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Sept. 1, 2025 \u2014 The U.S. labor force counted more than 1.2 million fewer immigrant workers from January through July, according to a Pew Research Center analysis of preliminary Census Bureau data, a shift coinciding with President Donald Trump\u2019s intensified immigration enforcement and a sharp drop in illegal border crossings. The decline is rippling through &#8230; <a title=\"1.2M fewer immigrant workers in the U.S. labor force under Trump, preliminary data show\" class=\"read-more\" href=\"https:\/\/readtrends.com\/en\/1-2m-fewer-immigrant-workers-under-trump\/\" aria-label=\"Read more about 1.2M fewer immigrant workers in the U.S. labor force under Trump, preliminary data show\">Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":443,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"rank_math_title":"U.S. labor force loses 1.2M immigrant workers | Policy Watch","rank_math_description":"Preliminary Census data analyzed by Pew show 1.2M fewer immigrant workers since January, straining farms, construction sites and home care as enforcement tightens.","rank_math_focus_keyword":"immigrant labor force,Pew Research Center,ICE enforcement,construction,agriculture,home health aides","footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-444","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-top-stories"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/readtrends.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/444","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/readtrends.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/readtrends.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/readtrends.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/readtrends.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=444"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/readtrends.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/444\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/readtrends.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/443"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/readtrends.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=444"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/readtrends.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=444"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/readtrends.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=444"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}