{"id":5267,"date":"2025-11-19T04:04:16","date_gmt":"2025-11-19T04:04:16","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/readtrends.com\/en\/cfp-bubble-texas-bama-border\/"},"modified":"2025-11-19T04:04:16","modified_gmt":"2025-11-19T04:04:16","slug":"cfp-bubble-texas-bama-border","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/readtrends.com\/en\/cfp-bubble-texas-bama-border\/","title":{"rendered":"CFP Bubble Watch: Texas is toast, Bama’s on the border – ESPN"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Lead:<\/strong> The College Football Playoff selection committee’s third ranking (of six) on Tuesday reshuffled the bubble: Texas tumbled to No. 17, casting serious doubt on its CFP chances even if it wins out and beats No. 3 Texas A&M. Notre Dame climbed to No. 9, sitting ahead of No. 10 Alabama, as the committee rewarded current form over marquee r\u00e9sum\u00e9s. Tulane emerged as the Group of 5 frontrunner at No. 24 after Navy\u2019s result altered that race. With three Saturdays left before Selection Day, several bubble teams still have paths \u2014 narrow or wide \u2014 to the field.<\/p>\n

Key Takeaways<\/h2>\n
    \n
  • Texas dropped to No. 17 in the committee’s third ranking, placing the Longhorns on the outside looking in despite potential wins, including a season-ending game against No. 3 Texas A&M.<\/li>\n
  • Notre Dame sits at No. 9, ahead of No. 10 Alabama, with the committee valuing recent performance; the Irish have one CFP-ranked win (No. 15 USC).<\/li>\n
  • Alabama remains No. 10 with four wins versus CFP top-25 teams (No. 4 Georgia, No. 14 Vanderbilt, No. 20 Tennessee, No. 22 Mizzou) but is in must-win mode after losing to Oklahoma.<\/li>\n
  • Tulane is the Group of 5 leader at No. 24; its schedule strength is No. 71, stronger than James Madison (No. 119) and North Texas (No. 127).<\/li>\n
  • ESPN Analytics projects Alabama with a 71.6% chance to reach the SEC title game and Texas Tech a 69.5% chance to secure a first-round bye in the CFP bracket.<\/li>\n
  • The bracket based on this ranking would seed No. 1 Ohio State, No. 2 Indiana, No. 3 Texas A&M, and No. 4 Georgia, with first-round byes for those four teams.<\/li>\n
  • Several conference races remain unsettled: the ACC still has six contenders, the Big Ten race could flip if Oregon or USC lose, and the Big 12 picture centers on Texas Tech and BYU.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

    Background<\/h2>\n

    The CFP selection committee issues six rankings across the closing weeks of the regular season; Tuesday\u2019s release was the third. Those periodic rankings have become the roadmap teams and fans use to gauge playoff chances and to prioritize end-of-season objectives: win the conference or assemble an at-large r\u00e9sum\u00e9 compelling enough to crack the top 12. Historically, the committee blends record, strength of schedule, head-to-head results and recent performance when positioning teams \u2014 a balance that makes late-season form especially influential.<\/p>\n

    This season the committee signal is clear: form and body of work matter alongside quality wins. Notre Dame\u2019s elevation to No. 9 \u2014 ahead of a two-loss Alabama \u2014 underscores that dynamic. Meanwhile, Power Four conferences jockey to finish with multiple bids; the committee\u2019s current placements imply different bid counts per conference, and those distributions will shift as conference championship scenarios play out over the final Saturdays.<\/p>\n

    Main Event<\/h2>\n

    In the SEC picture, Alabama\u2019s loss to Oklahoma kept the Tide in the top 12 but dropped them to No. 10, putting pressure on Alabama to win out. The committee lists Alabama as the SEC\u2019s last team in this week\u2019s bracket, while Vanderbilt \u2014 despite its head-to-head loss to Texas \u2014 sits the closest to the edge as the league\u2019s first team out. ESPN Analytics gives Alabama a 71.6% probability of reaching the conference title game, the highest in the conference.<\/p>\n

    The Big Ten composition is fragile: Ohio State and Indiana occupy the top two seeds in the committee\u2019s bracket, while Oregon currently registers as the conference\u2019s last team in. Questions about Oregon\u2019s schedule strength (No. 31) and its losses, including a double-digit home defeat to Indiana, leave the Ducks vulnerable if they stumble at home against USC. USC, for its part, is listed as the first team out but can reverse that status with a win at Oregon and by avoiding further slips.<\/p>\n

    Texas\u2019s slide to No. 17 is the clearest single movement of note. If the Longhorns win out and topple No. 3 Texas A&M, they could still face exclusion based on the committee\u2019s treatment of r\u00e9sum\u00e9 and recent form. In the Big 12, Texas Tech (No. 5) looks solid: ESPN Analytics gives the Red Raiders a 69.5% chance of a first-round bye and a 97.5% shot at the Big 12 title game. BYU remains a contender to win the league, and a conference title would lock a Cougars’ playoff berth.<\/p>\n

    Analysis & Implications<\/h2>\n

    The committee\u2019s current pattern favors teams that are trending upward; Notre Dame\u2019s ranking illustrates that a two-loss team can be elevated if recent play and perceived trajectory impress the panel. That approach complicates things for teams with better r\u00e9sum\u00e9s but less convincing late-season form \u2014 which helps explain Alabama\u2019s precarious spot despite four wins over ranked opponents.<\/p>\n

    For Power Four conferences, the number of bids will hinge on both conference-championship results and how the committee weighs schedule strength versus head-to-head wins. The Big Ten could send multiple entrants if Ohio State, Indiana and a second contender finish strong; conversely, a slip by Oregon or USC could restrict the league\u2019s representation. The SEC\u2019s depth means multiple at-large bids remain plausible, but upsets in the Iron Bowl or late-season chaos would reshuffle the pecking order.<\/p>\n

    At-large hopes for teams like Miami depend on a narrow combination of wins and losses elsewhere. Miami (No. 13) is currently the highest-ranked ACC team and still has a path \u2014 though ESPN Analytics gives it only a 7.1% chance to make the ACC title game. That puts the Hurricanes in an at-large chase scenario where they must run the table and rely on losses above to climb into the top 10 by Selection Day.<\/p>\n

    Comparison & Data<\/h2>\n
    \n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
    Seed<\/th>\nTeam<\/th>\nConference<\/th>\nNotes<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n
    No. 1<\/td>\nOhio State<\/td>\nBig Ten<\/td>\nProjected top seed (Big Ten champ)<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
    No. 2<\/td>\nIndiana<\/td>\nBig Ten<\/td>\nHigh seed, bye candidate<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
    No. 3<\/td>\nTexas A&M<\/td>\nSEC<\/td>\nProjected SEC champ<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
    No. 4<\/td>\nGeorgia<\/td>\nSEC<\/td>\nTop-4 bye<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/figure>\n

    This table shows the committee\u2019s current top-four seeding and the practical implications for first-round byes. The bracket constructed from the third ranking places Notre Dame at No. 9 and Alabama at No. 10, which yields specific first-round matchups with potential path implications: Tennessee-style upset scenarios or top-seed vulnerabilities could reshape the quarterfinal slate at the New Year bowls.<\/p>\n

    Reactions & Quotes<\/h2>\n

    Committee behavior has prompted both praise and criticism. Analysts highlight the emphasis on recent form; fan bases of teams like Texas are vocal about perceived injustices. Below are succinct perspectives drawn from reporting and analysis.<\/p>\n

    \n

    The committee appears to be rewarding teams that are peaking, not just teams with the flashiest r\u00e9sum\u00e9s.<\/p>\n

    ESPN analysis<\/cite><\/p><\/blockquote>\n

    ESPN Analytics provided probability metrics that clarify which teams control their own fate and which need external help. Those percentages are playing a major role in how media and public expect the last Saturdays to unfold.<\/p>\n

    \n

    Alabama still has the best path in the SEC to reach the conference title game, even after the loss to Oklahoma.<\/p>\n

    ESPN Analytics<\/cite><\/p><\/blockquote>\n

    Coaches and conference officials have largely declined to dramatize the rankings and instead emphasize preparation for upcoming opponents. Public reaction on social channels has trended between resigned acceptance and calls for late-season heroics from bubble teams.<\/p>\n

    \n

    There\u2019s still time \u2014 three Saturdays \u2014 and a lot can change. The bracket today is a snapshot, not a verdict.<\/p>\n

    Independent analyst commentary<\/cite><\/p><\/blockquote>\n