{"id":5967,"date":"2025-11-23T10:01:43","date_gmt":"2025-11-23T10:01:43","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/readtrends.com\/en\/nfl-week-12-picks-predictions\/"},"modified":"2025-11-23T10:01:43","modified_gmt":"2025-11-23T10:01:43","slug":"nfl-week-12-picks-predictions","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/readtrends.com\/en\/nfl-week-12-picks-predictions\/","title":{"rendered":"NFL predictions and picks for Week 12 slate"},"content":{"rendered":"<article>\n<h2>Lead<\/h2>\n<p>Erich Richter of the New York Post previews and makes his selections for the NFL Week 12 slate published on Nov. 22, 2025, covering the Sunday and Monday matchups. His piece combines a statistical model with subjective calls, yielding specific point spreads and projected scores for each contest. Richter reports a 7-6-1 result last week and a season ledger of 73-77-1 entering Week 12. The write-up flags key injuries, quarterback changes and line movement that could alter outcomes before kickoff.<\/p>\n<h2>Key Takeaways<\/h2>\n<ul>\n<li>Lions -10.5 vs. Giants: Richter expects Detroit to dominate a rush-poor New York defense (Giants ranked No. 32 vs. the run by DVOA) and projects a lopsided result.<\/li>\n<li>Ravens vs. Jets: Jets listed as +13.5; Richter\u2019s model favors New York\u2019s chances with Tyrod Taylor over Justin Fields, projecting Ravens 27.86, Jets 18.98.<\/li>\n<li>Packers -6.5 vs. Vikings: Green Bay remains a high-DVOA unit (No. 6) and the model projects 24.92\u201315.28 in favor of the Packers despite possible personnel questions.<\/li>\n<li>Patriots -6 vs. Bengals: Cincinnati\u2019s defense is cited among the league\u2019s worst; editor\u2019s note says Joe Burrow will not be activated for the game.<\/li>\n<li>Chiefs -3.5 vs. Colts: Richter admits second-guessing his model but ultimately backs Kansas City; he lists a projected score of 25.15 to 25.72 and favors the Chiefs.<\/li>\n<li>Other notable calls: Raiders -4 over Browns, Cardinals +3 over Jaguars, Cowboys +3 over Eagles, Falcons +2 over Saints, Rams -6.5 over Buccaneers, Panthers +7 over 49ers (Monday).<\/li>\n<li>Betting track record: Richter reports a 30.15% ROI on his long-shot betting approach since 2022 and emphasizes model-human blended reasoning for Week 12.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h2>Background<\/h2>\n<p>Week 12 falls deep into the NFL regular season when rosters and identities are clearer and betting lines often reflect seasonal form. Richter draws on model outputs and situational trends \u2014 for example, he notes that favorites of more than 10 points in Weeks 11\u201315 since 2015 have gone 45\u201336 against the spread (ATS). That historical slice is used to temper large early-season spreads and to target teams that appear to be deteriorating rather than improving.<\/p>\n<p>The piece repeatedly references DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average) rankings to support defensive and offensive assessments: Green Bay is listed in the top 6 by DVOA, New York\u2019s run defense sits at No. 32, and New England\u2019s pass defense is cited near the bottom of the league at No. 27. Those analytics are combined with recent form, home\/away splits and injury status to construct both model projections and subjective overlays.<\/p>\n<h2>Main Event<\/h2>\n<p>Lions vs. Giants: Richter views Detroit as a blowout candidate against a Giants rush defense ranked last by DVOA. With a double-digit spread (Lions -10.5), he leans on Detroit\u2019s ability to run and finish drives against teams that struggle to stop the ground game, forecasting a decisive Lions performance and speculating the Giants\u2019 coaching staff may have trouble adjusting early.<\/p>\n<p>Ravens vs. Jets and Chiefs vs. Colts: The Jets are listed as large underdogs (+13.5) but Richter\u2019s model favors New York if Tyrod Taylor replaces Justin Fields, citing Taylor\u2019s mobility and game-management upside against Baltimore. In Kansas City\u2019s game, Richter admits he is overriding model caution after a recent pick that went wrong; he expects an aggressive Chiefs attack versus the Colts and backs Kansas City despite model outputs.<\/p>\n<p>Packers vs. Vikings and Bears vs. Steelers: Green Bay is presented as a buy-low opportunity at home (-6.5) given its top-6 DVOA standing and pass rush; Richter\u2019s model gap favors the Packers by roughly 10 points. Chicago (-2.5) is viewed as competent enough offensively to handle Pittsburgh even if their 7\u20133 record is labeled \u201cfraudulent\u201d in tone \u2014 the pick still rests on Chicago\u2019s ability to outscore a limited Steelers offense.<\/p>\n<p>Patriots vs. Bengals and Titans vs. Seahawks: New England (-6) gets a vote because Cincinnati\u2019s defense is described among the league\u2019s weakest, so a shootout or a New England edge is plausible whether Joe Burrow plays or not (editor\u2019s note later clarifies Burrow will not be activated). Tennessee (+13) is a contrarian cover pick against Seattle in a game with a low total (39.5), where covering a large spread with a modest projected scoring range is Richter\u2019s angle.<\/p>\n<p>Remainder of Sunday and Monday: Richter lists Raiders -4 over Browns, Cardinals +3 over Jaguars, Cowboys +3 over Eagles, Falcons +2 over Saints and Rams -6.5 over Buccaneers as his other Sunday choices. He closes the slate by endorsing the Panthers +7 on Monday against the 49ers, with a model projection around 24.09\u201326.98 favoring San Francisco but a subjective lean to Carolina getting the number.<\/p>\n<h2>Analysis &#038; Implications<\/h2>\n<p>Richter\u2019s approach mixes model outputs with situational judgment; where his model and intuition diverge, he discloses which side he takes. That transparency is relevant for bettors weighing mechanical model plays against human overlays. His admission of last week\u2019s error (backing the Chiefs over the model) and current contrarian calls (e.g., Titans covering a big spread) illustrate an active risk-management posture rather than a purely algorithmic strategy.<\/p>\n<p>Line movement, injuries and late quarterback decisions are central to Week 12 outcomes. The piece highlights quarterback uncertainty in New York (Jets), Cincinnati (Burrow listed inactive per the editor), and other places where veteran backups or matchup-specific quarterbacks may change the value proposition on posted spreads. For market participants, those late changes can flip a recommended play into a pass or a new opportunity.<\/p>\n<p>From a standings and playoff-seeding perspective, several picks carry more than betting value: divisional games like Cowboys\u2013Eagles and Packers\u2013Vikings can have ripple effects for home-field considerations. Richter frames some underdog choices as buy-low opportunities for teams still within reach of playoff slots and uses DVOA and recent-game context to justify confidence in those sides.<\/p>\n<h2>Comparison &#038; Data<\/h2>\n<figure>\n<table>\n<thead>\n<tr>\n<th>Game<\/th>\n<th>Spread<\/th>\n<th>Richter projection<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td>Lions vs. Giants<\/td>\n<td>Lions -10.5<\/td>\n<td>Not numerically projected (blowout expected)<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Ravens vs. Jets<\/td>\n<td>Jets +13.5<\/td>\n<td>Ravens 27.86 \u2013 Jets 18.98<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Packers vs. Vikings<\/td>\n<td>Packers -6.5<\/td>\n<td>Packers 24.92 \u2013 Vikings 15.28<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Bears vs. Steelers<\/td>\n<td>Bears -2.5<\/td>\n<td>Bears 28.67 \u2013 Steelers 23.09<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Chiefs vs. Colts<\/td>\n<td>Chiefs -3.5<\/td>\n<td>25.15 \u2013 25.72 (Richter favors Chiefs)<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Panthers vs. 49ers (Mon)<\/td>\n<td>Panthers +7<\/td>\n<td>49ers 26.98 \u2013 Panthers 24.09<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/figure>\n<p>The table above selects representative matchups and reproduces Richter\u2019s posted projected scores and main spreads. These numbers should be understood as model outputs blended with subjective overlays; small differences in injury reports or late scratches can swing expected value. Bettors should cross-check kickoff-day roster reports and official injury lists before placing stakes.<\/p>\n<h2>Reactions &#038; Quotes<\/h2>\n<blockquote>\n<p>&#8220;My model likes Gang Green here,&#8221;<\/p>\n<p><cite>Erich Richter \/ New York Post<\/cite><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n<p>&#8220;Burrow will not be activated for the game.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p><cite>Editor\u2019s note \/ New York Post<\/cite><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>Those short excerpts underline the piece\u2019s mix of model-driven projections and last-minute personnel information. Richter\u2019s own commentary is presented as opinion and model output; the editor\u2019s note conveys a factual roster update that materially affects the Patriots\u2013Bengals line and related prop markets.<\/p>\n<aside>\n<details>\n<summary>Explainer: DVOA, spreads and ATS<\/summary>\n<p>DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average) is an efficiency metric from Football Outsiders that adjusts each play for opponent and situation, giving a per-play value for offense and defense. The spread is the bookmaker\u2019s handicap designed to split money on both sides; bettors use it to determine cover outcomes. ATS (against the spread) records whether a team covers the spread rather than simply winning outright. Richer context (injuries, matchup specifics, rest) often matters more than raw win-loss records when judging spread value.<\/p>\n<\/details>\n<\/aside>\n<h2>Unconfirmed<\/h2>\n<ul>\n<li>Potential early chopping of Giants defensive coordinator Shane Bowen is presented as a risk but not confirmed by team statements.<\/li>\n<li>Quarterback snaps and final activations (other than the editor\u2019s note on Burrow) can change up to game time and were not all officially confirmed at publication.<\/li>\n<li>Some injury statuses cited (e.g., absence of Brian Thomas Jr. or Travis Hunter for the Jaguars) should be verified against the official NFL gameday report before wagering.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h2>Bottom Line<\/h2>\n<p>Richter offers a week of blended model picks and human judgment for Week 12, highlighting several lopsided favorites and a handful of contrarian covers. His transparency about model disagreements and last week\u2019s result (7\u20136\u20131) is useful for readers assessing the credibility of each selection.<\/p>\n<p>Prudent bettors should treat these calls as one input among many: verify final injury reports, monitor line movement and consider bankroll management when reacting to late-breaking quarterback or roster news. The Week 12 slate presents clear opportunities and clear risks \u2014 this piece frames both and flags where the author is betting against his own model or relying on situational reads.<\/p>\n<h2>Sources<\/h2>\n<ul>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/nypost.com\/2025\/11\/22\/betting\/nfl-predictions-picks-for-week-12-slate\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">New York Post \u2014 Article by Erich Richter (media)<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.footballoutsiders.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Football Outsiders \u2014 DVOA and efficiency metrics (analytics)<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nfl.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">NFL \u2014 Official injury reports and game-day statuses (official)<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/article>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Lead Erich Richter of the New York Post previews and makes his selections for the NFL Week 12 slate published on Nov. 22, 2025, covering the Sunday and Monday matchups. His piece combines a statistical model with subjective calls, yielding specific point spreads and projected scores for each contest. Richter reports a 7-6-1 result last &#8230; <a title=\"NFL predictions and picks for Week 12 slate\" class=\"read-more\" href=\"https:\/\/readtrends.com\/en\/nfl-week-12-picks-predictions\/\" aria-label=\"Read more about NFL predictions and picks for Week 12 slate\">Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":5966,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"rank_math_title":"NFL Week 12 predictions and picks \u2014 New York Post","rank_math_description":"Erich Richter\u2019s Week 12 NFL picks combine model projections and judgment \u2014 key spreads, projected scores and roster notes (Burrow inactive). Read expert analysis.","rank_math_focus_keyword":"NFL Week 12,picks,predictions,spreads,Erich Richter","footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-5967","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-top-stories"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/readtrends.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5967","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/readtrends.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/readtrends.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/readtrends.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/readtrends.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=5967"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/readtrends.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5967\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/readtrends.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/5966"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/readtrends.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=5967"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/readtrends.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=5967"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/readtrends.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=5967"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}