{"id":904,"date":"2025-09-04T12:05:02","date_gmt":"2025-09-04T12:05:02","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/readtrends.com\/en\/gold-5000-trump-fed-undermine\/"},"modified":"2025-09-04T12:05:02","modified_gmt":"2025-09-04T12:05:02","slug":"gold-5000-trump-fed-undermine","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/readtrends.com\/en\/gold-5000-trump-fed-undermine\/","title":{"rendered":"Gold could approach $5,000 an ounce if Trump undermines Fed, Goldman Sachs warns"},"content":{"rendered":"<article>\n<p><time datetime=\"2025-09-04\">September 4, 2025<\/time> \u2014 Goldman Sachs analysts warned that gold prices could climb toward almost $5,000 an ounce if actions by President Donald Trump weaken the Federal Reserve\u2019s independence, a development that would push investors away from dollars and long-term Treasuries and extend the metal\u2019s 2025 rally.<\/p>\n<h2>Key Takeaways<\/h2>\n<ul>\n<li>Gold has risen about 35% in 2025 to above $3,500 per troy ounce as investors seek safe havens.<\/li>\n<li>Goldman Sachs\u2019 baseline forecast is $4,000 per ounce by mid-2026, with upside if dollar assets are sold off.<\/li>\n<li>If 1% of privately held US Treasuries shifted into gold, Goldman estimates the price could near $5,000 per ounce.<\/li>\n<li>Concerns about a politicised Fed \u2014 including Mr Trump\u2019s move to remove Fed governor Lisa Cook \u2014 have increased demand for gold as an institutional hedge.<\/li>\n<li>Asset managers such as Pictet remain overweight gold after reassessing positions amid recent political risk.<\/li>\n<li>Central banks and private investors have both boosted gold holdings, while some traditional diversifiers like long-dated Treasuries are seen as less reliable.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h2>Verified Facts<\/h2>\n<p>Gold has surged roughly 35% so far in 2025, trading above $3,500 per troy ounce at the time of this report. Goldman Sachs says its central scenario expects gold to reach $4,000 an ounce by mid-2026, reflecting continued demand as a hedge against political and inflation risks.<\/p>\n<p>The bank\u2019s analysts, led by Daan Struyven, model a shock scenario in which a significant reallocation out of US dollar assets \u2014 notably privately held US Treasuries \u2014 pushes the metal substantially higher. Goldman\u2019s sensitivity analysis suggests that if 1% of the privately owned Treasury market moved to gold, the price could rise near $5,000 per ounce.<\/p>\n<p>The immediate driver cited by market participants is concern that pressure from the White House on the Federal Reserve could reduce central-bank independence, increasing expectations for future rate cuts and higher long-term inflation. Mr Trump\u2019s recent attempt to dismiss Fed governor Lisa Cook is being litigated in court this week, keeping the political risk front and center.<\/p>\n<h2>Context &#038; Impact<\/h2>\n<p>Investors and central banks have added to gold holdings over recent years. Central-bank activity and private investor inflows have together supported the metal\u2019s advance, as some traditional defensive assets \u2014 notably long-dated US Treasuries \u2014 no longer offer the same portfolio protection during equity sell-offs, according to institutional research groups.<\/p>\n<p>For portfolios, a persistent erosion of Fed independence would change the risk profile of dollar assets and could encourage a broader shift into tangible stores of value. Asset managers are already reassessing allocations: Arun Sai of Pictet Asset Management said his team remains double overweight gold after recent events, reversing a prior inclination to scale back exposure.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Market volatility: A move toward gold can amplify price swings in both bond and currency markets as capital reallocates.<\/li>\n<li>Inflation expectations: A politicised central bank could raise long-term inflation bets, lifting real assets such as gold.<\/li>\n<li>Reserve dynamics: Sustained outflows from dollar assets can test the dollar\u2019s reserve role and prompt policy debates among global central banks.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h2>Official Statements<\/h2>\n<blockquote>\n<p>&#8220;A scenario where Fed independence is damaged would likely lead to higher inflation, lower stock and long-dated bond prices and an erosion of the dollar\u2019s reserve currency status,&#8221; said Daan Struyven, co-head of global commodities research at Goldman Sachs, summarising the bank&#8217;s risk framework.<\/p>\n<p>  <cite>Goldman Sachs \/ Daan Struyven<\/cite>\n<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<aside>\n<details>\n<summary>Explainer: Why would Fed independence lift gold?<\/summary>\n<p>Gold is often seen as a store of value that does not rely on institutional trust in policy makers. If investors expect the Fed to cut rates for political reasons, real yields on long-term bonds can fall or become more volatile, reducing the appeal of Treasuries and increasing demand for non-yielding assets like gold.<\/p>\n<\/details>\n<\/aside>\n<h2>Unconfirmed<\/h2>\n<ul>\n<li>Whether the courts will allow the White House to remove Fed governor Lisa Cook remains under adjudication this week.<\/li>\n<li>The exact scale and timing of private investor reallocation from US Treasuries to gold are hypothetical and depend on market sentiment and liquidity conditions.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h2>Bottom Line<\/h2>\n<p>Gold\u2019s recent gains reflect a broader search for diversification amid political risk. Goldman Sachs places $4,000 as its base-case target by mid-2026, while a substantial, sustained shift out of dollar assets could push prices much higher \u2014 potentially toward the $5,000-per-ounce stress scenario modelled by the bank. Investors should weigh liquidity, portfolio objectives and the conditional nature of these scenarios when adjusting exposures.<\/p>\n<h2>Sources<\/h2>\n<ul>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.ft.com\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Financial Times<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.goldmansachs.com\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Goldman Sachs<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.pictet.com\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Pictet Asset Management<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.blackrock.com\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">BlackRock Investment Institute<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/article>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>September 4, 2025 \u2014 Goldman Sachs analysts warned that gold prices could climb toward almost $5,000 an ounce if actions by President Donald Trump weaken the Federal Reserve\u2019s independence, a development that would push investors away from dollars and long-term Treasuries and extend the metal\u2019s 2025 rally. Key Takeaways Gold has risen about 35% in &#8230; <a title=\"Gold could approach $5,000 an ounce if Trump undermines Fed, Goldman Sachs warns\" class=\"read-more\" href=\"https:\/\/readtrends.com\/en\/gold-5000-trump-fed-undermine\/\" aria-label=\"Read more about Gold could approach $5,000 an ounce if Trump undermines Fed, Goldman Sachs warns\">Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":897,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"rank_math_title":"Gold near $5,000 if Trump weakens Fed | Markets","rank_math_description":"Gold could climb toward $5,000 an ounce if moves that weaken Federal Reserve independence push investors from dollars and Treasuries into bullion.","rank_math_focus_keyword":"gold,Trump,Federal Reserve,Goldman Sachs,Treasuries","footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-904","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-top-stories"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/readtrends.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/904","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/readtrends.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/readtrends.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/readtrends.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/readtrends.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=904"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/readtrends.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/904\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/readtrends.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/897"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/readtrends.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=904"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/readtrends.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=904"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/readtrends.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=904"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}