Emerald Fennell’s Wuthering Heights, starring Margot Robbie and Jacob Elordi and distributed by Warner Bros/MRC, is tracking for a strong holiday run as Valentine’s Day falls on a Saturday and Presidents Day creates a four-day frame. Early estimates put Friday at roughly $11 million to $12 million, including about $3 million from Thursday previews, with a four-day North American total of near $40 million still possible across 3,682 theaters. Industry observers point to heavy bookings in premium formats, strong presales near $14 million, and unusually large social reach as factors that could drive a pronounced Saturday peak. The film’s opening dynamics mirror patterns seen with other female-skewing romantic dramas, where significant frontloading is common.
Key Takeaways
- Wuthering Heights estimated Friday box office is $11M to $12M, including $3M in Thursday previews; four-day lofted target is about $40M across 3,682 locations.
- The picture has approximately $14M in reported presales, and bookings favor premium formats like IMAX and Dolby Cinema, which raise average ticket prices.
- Social media universe for Wuthering Heights is 381.2M across TikTok, YouTube, Instagram, Facebook and X, about 2.5 times the romantic-drama norm.
- Sony Pictures Animation’s GOAT is playing in 3,863 sites with a Friday near $6M (including $1M previews) and a four-day estimate around $24M; its SMU is 386.3M.
- Amazon MGM’s Crime 101 opened previews totaling about $1M and is tracking to roughly $4M Friday, with an expected four-day around $14M at 3,161 locations; RT critics score is reported at 85%.
- Send Help and Solo Mio continue to hold mid-tier weekend placements, with Send Help aiming near $10M over four days and Solo Mio at about $7.3M for the frame.
- Historic comps include Fifty Shades of Grey, which opened to $93M over a four-day Valentine frame 11 years ago when Valentine’s also fell on a Saturday.
Background
Wuthering Heights is an adaptation of Emily Bronte’s novel directed by Oscar winner Emerald Fennell. Warner Bros acquired North American rights for about $80 million, prevailing over a Netflix offer reported at $150 million; production and distribution strategies emphasize a theatrical-first approach for awards season visibility. The film opened with $3 million in Thursday previews at roughly 3,000 locations ahead of the long holiday weekend, a stat distributors use to model daily and cumulative weekend trends.
The calendar alignment of Valentine’s Day on a Saturday and Presidents Day on Monday creates a rare four-day frame that can skew patterns of attendance. Traditionally holidays that fall on peak moviegoing days can reduce box office, but Valentine’s on a Saturday is considered a boon for romantic titles because couples often seek a weekend night out. Theater bookings show an emphasis on premium formats and experiential venues, which can boost per-screen averages despite similar or slightly lower attendance.
Main Event
Friday projections for Wuthering Heights range from $11 million to $12 million, reflecting a bell-shaped weekend expectation in which Saturday is the dominant day. The film is reported to be playing at 3,682 theaters in current counts, with a push into IMAX, Dolby Cinema, dine-in, and drive-in locations that carry ticket price premiums. Marketing has leaned on the film’s soundtrack and music partnerships, most notably with Charli XCX, who is actively promoting the film to her combined social following.
Sony’s GOAT opened wide and is aiming to capture family audiences underserved by recent releases; it reported $1 million in Thursday previews from 3,030 locations and is estimated to do about $6 million Friday, translating to an early four-day projection near $24 million. RelishMix data cited in industry tracking shows GOAT’s social footprint at 386.3 million, which is 22 percent ahead of first-installment family animation norms.
Crime 101, from Amazon MGM and directed by Bart Layton and starring Chris Hemsworth, Halle Berry, Mark Ruffalo and Barry Keoghan, logged around $1 million in previews and is looking at a modest start, with a four-day projection near $14 million at 3,161 locations. The studio’s internal economics reportedly require theatrical releases to be on track to recoup marketing costs, which informs how much Amazon leans into box office runs for tentpole or prestige titles.
Analysis & Implications
The power of Saturday Valentine’s night should not be understated for a romantic drama fronted by high-profile leads. If Wuthering Heights captures a disproportionate share of Saturday attendance, it could push a $40M to $50M four-day result, especially with elevated premium format revenue and the reported $14M presale base. Frontloading remains a credible risk: female-skewing titles often concentrate gross in the opening day or two, producing strong weekend numbers but steeper percentage drops in subsequent weeks.
Premium format bookings will inflate the film’s gross relative to attendance, which affects studio revenue per patron and downstream performance in ancillary windows. For exhibitors, a title that drives strong premium spend and weekday hold through word of mouth is preferable to one that only spikes on opening weekend. The social media universe metric functions as an engagement proxy but is not a guarantee of conversion; Wuthering Heights’ 381.2M reach exceeds several recent romantic and arthouse titles, yet conversion will depend on audience sentiment and word of mouth during the weekend.
GOAT’s early momentum illustrates a marketplace gap for family animation not supplied by Disney or other legacy players this frame; with strong kid reviews in PostTrak and a high SMU, it could overindex on Saturday and Sunday family playtimes. Crime 101’s noir pedigree and certified fresh reviews position it as a counter-programming option for adult audiences, but its theatrical economics will be watched closely by Amazon MGM given the studio’s threshold approach to theatrical spend.
Comparison & Data
| Title | Theaters | Thu Previews | Fri Estimate | 4-Day Est. | Social Reach |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wuthering Heights | 3,682 | $3M | $11M-$12M | $40M (possible) | 381.2M |
| GOAT | 3,863 | $1M | $6M | $24M | 386.3M |
| Crime 101 | 3,161 | $1M | $4M | $14M | — |
| It Ends With Us (comp) | 3,000 | $7M (previews) | — | $50M (3-day) | 337.4M |
The table highlights how preview grosses, theater counts and social reach intersect to form weekend projections. Wuthering Heights’ combination of presales, premium format bookings and a large SMU makes a four-day $40M target realistic, but conversion rates from social reach to ticket sales will determine whether the film hits the upper end of its range. Comparisons to prior releases such as It Ends With Us illustrate differences in release timing and seasonality; summer openings can produce different legs than awards-season play.
Reactions & Quotes
ComScore’s head of marketplace trends framed the calendar alignment as unusually favorable for a romantic release, noting that holiday timing can either dampen or amplify attendance depending on the day of the week. Exhibitor and industry responses have emphasized premium format bookings as a key lever.
Ordinarily a holiday on peak moviegoing day is a negative, but with Valentine’s Day on a Saturday this year it could be the perfect romantic night out.
Paul Dergarabedian, ComScore (industry analyst)
Social analytics firms and audience trackers have been positive about GOAT and vocal about its meme-ready energy and animation style, which appears to be resonating with families and influencers. The combination of music, character design and what reviewers call kinetic direction has generated enthusiastic online chatter.
Convo runs positive for GOAT, with fans leaning into the animation swagger, music drops and character personality; the vibe is hype-forward and meme-ready.
RelishMix (social analytics)
Distribution notes indicate Warner’s theatrical play is backed by a substantial acquisition investment, which becomes relevant if attendance softens and the studio must evaluate downstream windows and P&A recoupment paths.
Unconfirmed
- Reported $14M in presales for Wuthering Heights has been cited by distribution sources but lacks a studio press confirmation at the time of publication.
- Exact breakdown of premium format revenue for the weekend is an estimate based on exhibitor bookings and reported upcharges, not finalized box office reports.
- Longer-term legs and week-to-week retention for all three openings remain projections until Monday and subsequent daily grosses are reported.
Bottom Line
Wuthering Heights is well positioned to capitalize on a rare calendar alignment that favors romantic weekend outings, with premium format bookings and strong presales supporting a credible four-day estimate near $40 million. However, the film faces a meaningful frontloading risk that could produce a steep second-week drop if word of mouth is uneven. Exhibitors will be monitoring daily grosses closely; a dominant Valentine’s Saturday could push the title into the upper end of its forecast, while a softer showing would expose the fragility of high-premium revenue strategies.
Meanwhile, GOAT could pleasantly surprise family box office projections given the scarcity of competing new family fare, and Crime 101 will be watched for adult counter-programming performance. By Monday, with Presidents Day included, the market will have clearer signals about conversion from social reach to tickets and about which titles generated sustainable audience interest beyond opening-day curiosity.