— As Americans head into Christmas, the strongest chances for measurable snow on the ground on Dec. 25 sit across the northern halves of Wisconsin, Minnesota, North Dakota and the northern Great Lakes. The Weather Prediction Center meteorologist Scott Kleebauer told CBS News that areas from the Adirondacks into northern Maine also look promising for a white Christmas. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration defines a white Christmas as at least 1 inch of snow on the ground on the morning of Dec. 25. Nationwide snow cover and an expanding southern ridge will keep odds low across much of the central and southern U.S.
Key takeaways
- The highest near-term odds for a white Christmas are over northern Wisconsin, Minnesota, North Dakota and the northern Great Lakes, according to the Weather Prediction Center.
- NOAA’s standard definition of a white Christmas is 1 inch or more of snow on the ground on Dec. 25.
- Only about 22% of the Lower 48 states were covered by snow as of Friday, per NOAA satellite and station analyses.
- Historical normals (1991–2020) show Minneapolis–St. Paul with roughly a 74% chance of a white Christmas; New York City’s historical chance is about 13%.
- A strong ridge of high pressure over the southern central Plains is expected to raise temperatures well above normal across much of the central U.S., reducing snow chances there.
- Even where temperatures rise, existing snowpack in parts of the upper Midwest may be hard to melt before Dec. 25.
- Odds fall sharply once you move south of Interstate 80, except at higher Appalachian elevations.
Background
Seasonal probabilities for a white Christmas are derived from 30-year climate normals. NOAA’s 1991–2020 U.S. Climate Normals synthesize observations from nearly 15,000 stations to estimate long-term likelihoods for temperature, precipitation and snow. Those historical probabilities remain a primary baseline for expecting snow on Dec. 25, but they do not predict short‑term weather systems that can change outcomes in the final days before the holiday.
Atmospheric patterns this week are dominated by a large ridge of high pressure forecast to build across the southern central Plains. That ridge tends to deflect cold, stormy systems and elevate temperatures across a broad swath of the country, lowering the chance that fresh snow will fall or persist in the central and southern states. At the same time, regions with existing snowpack in the upper Midwest and portions of New England retain a better chance of meeting the 1‑inch criterion despite mild air moving in.
Main event
Meteorologist Scott Kleebauer of the Weather Prediction Center summarized the pattern: the northern Great Lakes, northern Minnesota and much of northern New England show the best odds for measurable snow on Dec. 25. He emphasized that the ridge over the southern Plains will be a controlling feature of the weather through the holiday period, keeping southern and central areas unusually mild.
Temperatures are forecast to run well above normal across the southern Plains into parts of the Midwest, but existing snow depth in parts of Minnesota and the Dakotas may be deep enough to survive a warm spell. Forecasters caution that above‑average surface temperatures do not automatically erase deep, compacted snowpacks that have accumulated over previous weeks.
Wider spatial analysis shows that the probability of a white Christmas decreases moving west from Minnesota and drops sharply across South Dakota and Iowa. The Northeast has pockets of relatively higher odds because some of the region remains near climatological normals rather than being pulled into the ridge’s warm sector.
Analysis & implications
From a societal perspective, expectations of a “white Christmas” reflect both culture and infrastructure preparedness. Regions with high historical probability have longstanding plans for snow removal and travel advisories around the holidays; lower‑probability regions are less practiced and can experience outsized disruption if a rare snow event occurs. Emergency managers track both climatological odds and short‑term model runs to set staffing and equipment readiness.
Economically, a white Christmas can boost sectors such as winter tourism, ski resorts and local retail in mountain and northern communities, while warmer conditions can reduce heating demand and affect energy markets. Conversely, transportation and supply chains can be strained in places unaccustomed to snow, raising local economic risks if an unexpected storm arrives.
Climatologically, the 1991–2020 normals are the most recent 30‑year baseline and help show longer‑term shifts in seasonal probabilities. While one season does not indicate a trend, repeated seasons with reduced snow cover in historically snowy regions would be consistent with broader warming signals seen in other climate indicators.
Comparison & data
| Location | Historical probability of ≥1 in on Dec. 25 (%) |
|---|---|
| Minneapolis–St. Paul | 74 |
| Cleveland | 39 |
| Chicago | 34 |
| Detroit | 35 |
| Indianapolis | 26 |
| New York City | 13 |
The table highlights how probabilities vary among major cities using the same 30‑year baseline. Regions near Canada and the northern Great Lakes show substantially higher historical odds than coastal and southern metropolitan areas. Those historical percentages represent climatological likelihoods, not deterministic short‑term forecasts for this year.
Reactions & quotes
Forecasters and local officials reacted to the mixed odds depending on geography.
“Around the Adirondacks and into northern Maine, conditions look favorable for a white Christmas,”
Scott Kleebauer, Weather Prediction Center (meteorologist)
Kleebauer framed that optimism alongside the larger pattern: the southern ridge will warm many regions and reduce new snowfall chances across the central U.S.
“South of I‑80 is where you really start seeing a precipitous drop off of the chances,”
Scott Kleebauer, Weather Prediction Center (meteorologist)
Local emergency managers in higher‑probability areas said they remain ready to manage holiday travel and snow removal if conditions materialize.
Unconfirmed
- Last‑minute storm tracks that could bring coastal or interior snow close to Dec. 25 remain model‑dependent and were not resolved at the time of this report.
- Localized high‑elevation snow in the Appalachians could produce isolated white Christmases not reflected in regional averages; those occurrences require finer‑scale forecasts to confirm.
Bottom line
The best chances for a white Christmas this season are concentrated in the northern tier of the continental U.S., especially across the upper Midwest and parts of northern New England. Historical climate normals and current model guidance both point to diminished odds for most of the central and southern states because of a dominant ridge of high pressure and warmer-than-normal temperatures.
Residents in higher‑probability areas should monitor local forecasts in the days leading to Dec. 25 for any adjustments, while those farther south should not rely on historical chance alone—rare events do occur and short‑range forecasts can change outcomes. For the most reliable, location‑specific guidance, consult local National Weather Service offices and NOAA forecast products.
Sources
- CBS News — national news report summarizing forecasts and NOAA data
- Weather Prediction Center — official U.S. government forecast center (operational meteorology)
- NOAA NCEI 1991–2020 U.S. Climate Normals — official 30‑year climate baseline (climatology)