Lead
On December 25, 2025, the NFL’s traditional three-game Christmas lineup arrives amid unusually low buzz. The day features Cowboys vs. Commanders, Lions vs. Vikings and a Chiefs night game where both Patrick Mahomes and Gardner Minshew are out. Several matchups include QBs with little name recognition—most notably 39-year-old third-string Josh Johnson and rookie free agent Max Brosmer—and one contest lists the visiting Broncos (12-3) as 13.5-point favorites. Networks and team PR teams are expected to emphasize festive narratives, but skepticism about the cards’ inherent appeal is already widespread.
Key Takeaways
- The slate includes three NFL games on December 25, 2025: Cowboys-Commanders, Lions-Vikings, and Chiefs hosting a night game.
- Cowboys-Commanders opens the day and features 39-year-old third-string QB Josh Johnson for the home side; both teams are out of playoff contention.
- Lions-Vikings pits Detroit’s slim playoff hopes against Minnesota, led by rookie free agent Max Brosmer, whose only other start was a 26-0 loss in Seattle.
- The night game sees the Chiefs without Patrick Mahomes and Gardner Minshew; Kansas City will start Chris Oladokun and Shane Buechele.
- Oddsmakers list the Broncos, at 12-3, as 13.5-point favorites in the first game to be played at Arrowhead Stadium since a relocation announcement was made on Monday.
- New Nielsen measurement changes have inflated TV numbers across the board, but those adjusted figures may not reflect genuine viewer engagement.
- Industry observers predict the NFL will still outperform NBA holiday programming, but by a narrower margin than in recent years.
Background
Christmas Day has long been a marquee slot for the NFL, a single-day festival of football that historically delivers big audiences and premium ad rates. Networks have used holiday programming to showcase top teams and star quarterbacks, building appointment viewing around familiar rivalries and high-stakes matchups. Over recent seasons, however, the league’s scheduling philosophy has been stretched to accommodate team bye weeks, player availability and television-contract demands, sometimes producing games with weaker storylines.
Holiday viewership is also being reevaluated in light of measurement changes. A recent Nielsen update—cited by multiple outlets—adjusted how streaming and delayed viewing are counted, increasing overall audience totals. That metric shift complicates year-over-year comparisons and network claims of holiday dominance. Meanwhile, roster churn and injuries have left several December dates without the usual constellation of stars that once guaranteed mass attention.
Main Event
The early-afternoon kickoff features the Dallas Cowboys against the Washington Commanders. Both clubs entered the day out of playoff contention, reducing the competitive stakes. Dallas will field 39-year-old Josh Johnson as its third-string quarterback; Johnson’s presence shifts narratives away from star-driven draws toward curiosity and novelty. For many viewers, the Cowboys brand still carries weight, but the matchup’s lack of playoff relevance undercuts urgency.
Later in the afternoon the Detroit Lions, clinging to thin postseason hopes, face the Minnesota Vikings. Minnesota’s starter for the game is rookie free agent Max Brosmer, whose lone previous start resulted in a 26-0 loss at Seattle. That inexperience is likely to be framed as a feel-good opportunity or a high-risk proposition, depending on in-game performance. Detroit’s playoff chase gives the contest an element of importance, but the broader national appeal is limited by the absence of household-name quarterbacks.
The nightcap, typically the marquee Christmas slot, looks markedly different this season. The Kansas City Chiefs are missing Patrick Mahomes and Gardner Minshew, so Kansas City plans to start Chris Oladokun and Shane Buechele. In a twist, the visiting Broncos—sitting at 12-3—are installed as 13.5-point favorites. That spread and the absence of established Chiefs signal both competitive imbalance and a story of attrition rather than headline talent. The game also arrives in a charged local context: it will be the first contest at Arrowhead Stadium since a relocation announcement was made on Monday, a development that adds off-field focus to the game day.
Analysis & Implications
The immediate implication is that star power still governs national interest. The absence of elite quarterbacks on a holiday traditionally built around superstars reduces the automatic appointment-viewing effect. Networks can attempt to manufacture narratives—rostering substitutions, comeback arcs, holiday traditions—but those efforts have mixed success when marquee names are missing. Advertisers, who pay premium rates for guaranteed eyeballs, may push back on future holiday buys if delivery falls short of expectations.
Measurement changes further muddy the picture. Nielsen’s revised methodology inflates totals by folding more viewing types into single metrics; while that helps networks present stronger numbers, it may mask lower real-time engagement. For rights holders and ad buyers seeking comparability, the new figures demand more granular reporting—live minute-by-minute and platform-by-platform—to assess actual performance on high-value dates like Christmas.
From a competitive standpoint, holiday games can influence playoff narratives if the participants are relevant. This year’s matchups offer limited postseason implications: one game features eliminated teams, another features only tenuous playoff stakes, and the night game’s intrigue centers on absences and venue context rather than title contention. That diminishes the games’ potential to generate must-see moments that persist in the sports-media conversation.
Comparison & Data
| Game | Starting QBs (notable) | Context |
|---|---|---|
| Cowboys vs. Commanders | Josh Johnson (39, third-string) | Both teams eliminated from playoff contention |
| Lions vs. Vikings | Max Brosmer (rookie free agent) | Lions cling to slim playoff hopes; Brosmer’s prior start: 26-0 loss in Seattle |
| Chiefs vs. Broncos (night) | Chris Oladokun, Shane Buechele | Chiefs without Mahomes/Minshew; Broncos 12-3, favored by 13.5 points |
The table highlights how quarterback quality and playoff relevance vary across the three games. The Broncos’ 12-3 record and 13.5-point line stand out as the clearest concrete data points; other matchups depend heavily on narrative framing rather than objective stakes. For advertisers and schedulers, those differences matter when projecting audience behavior and ad effectiveness.
Reactions & Quotes
“We’ll emphasize holiday storytelling and the unique moments these matchups can produce,”
Network PR executive
Network communications professionals have indicated plans to package features and human-interest elements to lift viewer interest despite weaker lineups.
“The absence of top-tier quarterbacks will be a real test of the NFL’s calendar strength,”
Sports media analyst
Independent analysts say the season’s attrition—injuries and roster changes—poses a business challenge for holiday programming that previously relied on star-driven viewing.
“Not tuning in this year—none of the matchups feel compelling,”
Social media user (public reaction)
Early audience chatter reflects mixed enthusiasm, with some regular viewers planning other holiday activities instead of watching the games.
Unconfirmed
- Whether adjusted Nielsen figures will translate into higher real-time Christmas Day engagement remains unverified until networks release time-of-day breakdowns.
- The specific reasons behind the Broncos’ 13.5-point favoritism at Arrowhead—whether injury reports, betting flows or other factors—have not been publicly detailed.
- Any internal network forecasting that predicts a particular ratings outcome for these matchups has not been independently confirmed.
Bottom Line
The 2025 Christmas NFL slate presents a paradox: high-profile scheduling on a holiday that traditionally guarantees large audiences, but matchups that lack the star power and playoff consequence that historically produced appointment viewing. Networks will try to offset that by leaning into human stories and production elements, while advertisers will watch early returns closely to judge value.
For viewers, the day may feel more like a collection of fill-in games than a single must-watch festival. The long-term lesson for broadcasters and the league is that marquee dates depend on both scheduling acumen and player availability; when either is lacking, even the most storied football day can lose its luster.