Prediction markets have surged in activity this winter, and analysts say an unexpected demographic may be helping drive that growth. During the week ended Jan. 4, data from Kalshi showed college football trades reached 32% of that platform’s total handle, outpacing the NFL and NBA, and Truist analysts suggested 18- to 20-year-olds could be a key contributor. The trend is concentrated in states where regulated online sports betting is restricted, and has prompted an appeal from NCAA President Charlie Baker to the CFTC to suspend trading on college sports until further protections are set.
Key Takeaways
- Kalshi reported that in the week ending Jan. 4, college football accounted for 32% of its handle, compared with 24% for the NFL and 22% for the NBA.
- Prediction platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket accept users 18 and older for many markets, creating access where state-licensed sportsbooks generally require 21+.
- HoldCrunch data — analyzed as an OSB-equivalent handle metric — shows college-football trading has risen on Kalshi since October 2025.
- Juice Reel reports that 9% of its California customers and 6.8% of its New York customers have connected prediction-market accounts; Texas is just over 6%.
- Among Juice Reel customers, alternate platforms beyond licensed sportsbooks take roughly 40% of the overall handle, reflecting substantial activity off regulated books in high-tax states like New York.
- Roughly 70% of bets tracked by Juice Reel occur on regulated sportsbooks but they represent only 38% of the total handle; prediction markets make up 1% of bets but 13% of handle, signaling larger average stakes per prediction trade.
- Truist’s analysis warns that prediction markets magnify both upside for deep-pocketed traders and downside risk for low-wallet users.
Background
Prediction markets let users buy and sell contracts tied to future events — from political outcomes to sports results — with payouts linked to the probability of an outcome. Platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket have expanded options in recent years, offering many contracts that are unavailable or restricted within traditional U.S. sportsbooks. A key regulatory distinction is age: most regulated sportsbooks enforce 21+ limits in many states, while several prediction platforms permit 18+ registration depending on state rules.
The uneven legal landscape for online sports betting has created gaps that prediction platforms can fill, particularly in large states without fully regulated markets. In addition, the structure of prediction contracts — often lower per-trade limits but broader market choices — appeals to users familiar with trading financial derivatives. That combination of access and structure has drawn scrutiny from stakeholders such as the NCAA, which this month asked the Commodity Futures Trading Commission to delist college-sports contracts pending stronger safeguards.
Main Event
Data from HoldCrunch, a data provider founded by a former FanDuel executive, indicates a shift in Kalshi’s activity mix: college football handled its largest share during the week ended Jan. 4 at 32% of total handle. Kalshi told market observers that the platform has trended toward college-football prominence since October 2025. Truist analyst Barry Jonas flagged the pattern in research this week and suggested younger bettors — specifically 18- to 20-year-olds — may be materially present on these platforms because they are below the sportsbook age limit in many states.
State-level usage patterns from Juice Reel, an app for tracking sports wagers and trading activity, add geographic color. Juice Reel reports the highest connection rates to prediction accounts among its California users (9%), with New York second at 6.8% and Texas just above 6%. Neither California nor Texas have licensed, statewide online sports betting, a reality that may steer bettors toward alternative options.
New York is notable: although it offers legal online sportsbooks, its tax structure and market segmentation leave room for alternative products. New York imposes a 51% tax on sportsbooks but not on several nonregulated options, and Juice Reel estimates 40% of its customers’ overall handle flows to those alternate platforms. Market participants say professional or sophisticated bettors who face small-bet limits at major sportsbooks can turn to prediction markets to deploy larger or more complex strategies.
The rise of college-football trading has prompted a regulatory pushback. NCAA President Charlie Baker formally asked the CFTC to remove college sports from tradeable options until additional consumer protections are enforced. That appeal underscores how quickly market innovations can collide with concerns about integrity, youth participation and consumer risk in unregulated corners of wagering.
Analysis & Implications
If 18- to 20-year-olds are participating at scale, the demographic shift has several implications. First, platforms accepting 18+ users may be attracting younger, digitally native traders who are comfortable with simple interfaces and fast outcomes. That cohort often overlaps with college enrollment, which could explain elevated college-football interest on prediction platforms. Regulators and policymakers will likely scrutinize age-gating and verification practices if evidence mounts that under-21 users are active in markets tied to sporting events.
Second, the economics of prediction markets amplify differences in bettor profiles. Data showing predictions are 1% of bets but 13% of handle suggests larger average stakes on prediction trades. That concentration can magnify wins for skilled, well-capitalized traders while exposing small-wallet users to outsized volatility. Consumer-protection advocates may press for deposit limits, clearer risk warnings and better age verification to mitigate potential harm to younger users.
Third, the tax and regulatory environment matters. In states with high sportsbook taxes or no regulated market at all, alternative products can capture significant share. That raises revenue and fairness questions for states, and may prompt lawmakers to consider either bringing prediction platforms into existing regulatory frameworks or clarifying which contracts are permitted. The NCAA’s request to the CFTC places college sports at the center of that policy debate.
Comparison & Data
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Kalshi handle share (week ended Jan. 4) | College football 32%, NFL 24%, NBA 22% |
| Juice Reel connected prediction accounts | California 9%, New York 6.8%, Texas ~6% |
| Bets vs Handle (Juice Reel users) | 70% of bets on regulated sportsbooks = 38% of handle; Predictions = 1% of bets but 13% of handle |
These figures illustrate three dynamics: a recent tilt toward college-football activity on at least one prediction platform; higher connection rates in large states without comprehensive regulated sportsbooks; and a handle distribution that gives prediction markets outsized financial weight relative to the number of trades. That mix helps explain why market behavior and regulatory attention have accelerated concurrently.
Reactions & Quotes
Truist analysts publicly framed the trend as important for both market behavior and consumer risk, highlighting how prediction markets may reward skill but increase downside exposure for small accounts. The firm cited the Kalshi data and flagged demographic possibilities as a driver of the shift.
“Prediction markets amplify bettor skill and variance, with substantially larger downside for low-wallet users and higher upside for deep-pocket traders,”
Truist analyst Barry Jonas
Market operators and data providers emphasize that limits at regulated sportsbooks can push certain bettors toward alternative venues where different bet sizing is possible. Juice Reel’s founder described where experienced bettors are choosing to place larger, concentrated stakes.
“Some of the most capable bettors are migrating to prediction markets because sportsbooks often limit their maximum wagers,”
Ricky Gold, Juice Reel founder
The NCAA framed its appeal to the CFTC in protectionist terms focused on student-athlete welfare and integrity, asking for college events to be excluded from tradeable contracts until further safeguards are adopted.
“We request removal of college-sports options from trading until clear consumer and integrity protections are in place,”
Charlie Baker, NCAA President
Unconfirmed
- The precise share of prediction-market activity attributable to 18- to 20-year-olds is not publicly verified by demographic data from platforms and remains an informed hypothesis.
- Whether the higher connection rates in New York are primarily driven by finance professionals rather than younger bettors is not confirmed and requires direct platform demographic reporting.
- Any causal link between sportsbook bet limits and the migration of high-stakes bettors to prediction markets is suggested by industry sources but lacks comprehensive empirical validation across platforms.
Bottom Line
Rising college-football activity on Kalshi and similar platforms has drawn attention because it coincides with accessibility for younger users and concentrated usage in states with limited regulated options. That combination has shifted market composition and attracted scrutiny from regulators and the NCAA, creating pressure for clearer rules and stronger consumer protections.
For policymakers, the immediate questions are practical: should prediction markets be folded into existing wagering regimes, should certain categories (like college sports) be temporarily restricted, and how can age and risk protections be standardized across platforms? For market participants, the evolving landscape offers both trading opportunity and regulatory uncertainty; the balance of those forces will shape the sector through 2026 and beyond.
Sources
- CNBC (news report summarizing industry data and regulatory responses)
- Kalshi (prediction-market platform; company data quoted in industry reports)
- Juice Reel (wager-tracking app and data provider cited for state-level connection rates)
- CFTC (regulatory body; recipient of NCAA correspondence)
Disclosure: CNBC and Kalshi have a commercial relationship.