Lead
The Houston Cougars visit the Kansas Jayhawks in Lawrence, KS, on Monday, February 23, 2026, with tip-off scheduled for 9 p.m. ET on ESPN. Houston enters as a 2-point favorite and is listed at -135 on the moneyline; the game total is 138. My selection for the contest is Houston moneyline (-135), projecting the Cougars to win outright on the road. This preview explains why that pick makes sense, outlines matchups to watch and reviews the odds and context.
Key Takeaways
- Tip-off: Monday, Feb 23, 2026 at 9 p.m. ET on ESPN; total posted at 138 points.
- Houston is favored by 2 points (spread -2, moneyline -135); Kansas moneyline sits around +115.
- Houston seeks a fourth consecutive No. 1 NCAA Tournament seed and an eighth NCAA bid under Kelvin Sampson.
- Kingston Flemings leads Houston at about 17.0 PPG with roughly 5.0 assists and 3+ rebounds per game.
- Kansas is 20–7 on the season; Darryn Peterson averages ~20 PPG and 4 RPG when active.
- Flory Bidunga is shooting roughly 68% from the floor and blocking about 2.8 shots per contest.
- Per KenPom, Houston ranks inside the top-10 in both offensive and defensive efficiency; Kansas ranks ninth defensively.
- My best bet: Houston moneyline (-135) as a short road favorite in a tightly matched Big 12 showdown.
Background
This game pits two of college basketball’s most scrutinized programs into a late-February conference test that carries NCAA seeding implications. Houston is chasing a fourth straight No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament and is trying to bolster an at-large résumé with a road win in a hostile environment. Kelvin Sampson’s program has blended veteran coaching, defensive physicality and a highly touted recruiting class to remain in the national conversation.
Kansas, coached by Bill Self, has compiled a 20–7 record but has been inconsistent at home this season, recently dropping a game to Cincinnati. The Jayhawks’ year has been defined by the availability and dominance of freshman guard Darryn Peterson; when he plays, Kansas becomes a significantly different offensive team. Meanwhile, role players such as Tre White and forward Flory Bidunga have been central to Kansas’ two-way performance.
Main Event
The tip-off sequence should highlight Houston’s emphasis on spacing and off-ball screening versus Kansas’ motion offense and interior-first looks. Houston relies on a combination of Kingston Flemings’ playmaking from the wing and Emanuel Sharp’s perimeter scoring — Sharp is averaging a career-best ~16 PPG this season. Joseph Tugler anchors Houston’s defensive frontcourt and helps the Cougars control the paint in half-court sets.
Kansas will aim to feed Flory Bidunga early — his finishing rate (around 68% FG) and rim protection (about 2.8 BPG) make him a matchup problem. Tre White provides secondary scoring and rebounding (roughly 14 PPG, near 7 RPG), giving the Jayhawks two strong two-way wings to accompany Peterson. The Jayhawks’ defense has held opponents to about 66 PPG, an important stat in a conference loaded with high-efficiency offenses.
Game flow likely hinges on transition opportunities and offensive rebounding. Houston’s philosophy under Sampson emphasizes physicality and second-chance points via offensive glass; if the Cougars win the rebounding battle, they can neutralize Kansas’ interior scoring. Conversely, if Kansas forces turnovers and pushes tempo with Peterson on the floor, the Jayhawks can outpace Houston in quick possessions.
Analysis & Implications
From a matchup standpoint, Houston’s two-way balance and KenPom efficiencies suggest the Cougars can survive a hostile crowd if they execute defensively. The statistical profile — top-10 offense and defense per KenPom — indicates a team built to win close games against quality opponents. Houston’s depth and rebounding are factors that make the moneyline a viable short favorite play.
Kansas’ season has been uneven largely because of availability and consistency issues around Peterson. When he plays, Kansas becomes markedly more efficient offensively; when he does not, the Jayhawks rely on a more distributed scoring load that can be attacked by disciplined defenses. The recent home loss to Cincinnati raises questions about Kansas’ current form and confidence within Allen Fieldhouse.
Market pricing (Houston -2, ML -135) reflects the expectation of a close game where either team can win. Betting the moneyline on Houston is a choice that favors closing the margin of variance — a single-possession upset can swing the spread, but moneyline backing rewards an outright result. For tournament seeding and résumé-building, a Houston road victory would be impactful; a Kansas win preserves home-court credibility and helps its NCAA profile.
Comparison & Data
| Item | Houston | Kansas |
|---|---|---|
| Record | (as reported) pursuit of 8th NCAA berth under Sampson | 20–7 |
| Point Spread (Market) | -2 | +2 |
| Moneyline | -135 | +115 |
| Total | 138 | |
| Key Scorers | Kingston Flemings ~17.0 PPG; Emanuel Sharp ~16.0 PPG | Darryn Peterson ~20.0 PPG; Tre White ~14.0 PPG |
| Key Metrics (KenPom) | Top-10 offense & defense | 9th most efficient defense |
The table condenses odds, key players and efficiency markers to show why bookmakers have this game tightly priced. Houston’s two-way efficiency contrasts with Kansas’ defensive pedigree; the listed total (138) implies a moderately paced contest with emphasis on half-court sets. Bettors should compare live lines across sportsbooks for the best value, particularly if injury news or rotation changes surface before tip-off.
Reactions & Quotes
Tip-off is confirmed for 9 p.m. ET on ESPN for the Houston at Kansas matchup.
Official game schedule
Houston is listed as a 2-point favorite, with the moneyline around -135 in early markets.
Pre-game odds boards (sportsbook)
Kansas enters the game at 20–7 on the season and will try to respond after a recent home loss.
Team reports / media coverage
Unconfirmed
- Whether Darryn Peterson will be fully available or managed for minutes remains subject to final pregame updates; his game-to-game usage has varied this season.
- Any late scratches or lineup adjustments for either team announced within hours of tip could materially change odds and the pick; monitor official injury reports.
- Reports that Kansas’ recent media scrutiny is affecting on-court performance are anecdotal and not independently verified.
Bottom Line
This is a tight Big 12 matchup with significant NCAA seeding implications. Houston’s two-way efficiency, frontcourt toughness and offensive rebounding profile make the Cougars a plausible short-road favorite; Kansas’ interior finishing and defensive chops make the Jayhawks dangerous, especially when Darryn Peterson is active.
For bettors, the moneyline on Houston at roughly -135 represents a value play if you trust Houston’s consistency and rebounding edge; anyone favoring Kansas should seek a better price or consider alternative markets (e.g., player props, small-touch spread). Monitor late news and shop lines — a swing of a few cents on the moneyline or a half-point on the spread can change expected value.