At the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) on March 28, 2026, Vice President JD Vance won the event’s straw poll, capturing 53 percent of votes from roughly 1,600 attendees. Secretary of State Marco Rubio placed second with 35 percent, marking a notable rise from his standing at last year’s CPAC. The result underlines intraparty tensions over foreign policy and the succession question as the Republican Party heads toward the 2026 midterms and the open 2028 presidency. Observers say the poll is a symbolic barometer rather than a definitive forecast of the GOP nomination.
Key Takeaways
- JD Vance received 53% of the CPAC 2026 straw poll, based on nearly 1,600 attendees who voted on March 28, 2026.
- Marco Rubio finished with 35%, up sharply from a 3% showing in last year’s CPAC straw poll.
- Last year’s CPAC poll (taken weeks after President Trump began his second term) had Vance at 61%, Steve Bannon at 12%, and Ron DeSantis at 7%.
- CPAC attendance and voting skew strongly to the right of the broader Republican electorate; results reflect activist sentiment more than national polling.
- Less than eight months remain before the November 2026 midterms, a near-term test for Republican messaging and turnout.
- President Trump’s approval rating fell to 36% in a Reuters/Ipsos survey cited at CPAC, increasing speculation about future GOP leadership.
Background
CPAC, founded as an annual gathering for conservative activists, has long served both as a showcase for ideology and a thermometer for the party’s activist base. Attendance typically tilts to the party’s right wing; straw polls there are watched closely by operatives and journalists even though their predictive value is limited. The straw poll tradition predates Trump’s rise; in the 2010s, figures such as Mitt Romney and Rand Paul often topped CPAC rankings. Since 2016, a noticeable realignment has emerged as Trump-aligned politics consolidated influence over mainstream Republican institutions and activist events.
JD Vance, a veteran and former one-term senator from Ohio, has been closely associated with the MAGA-aligned, more isolationist wing of the party. In 2025 he entered the White House as vice president, aligning with a foreign-policy posture skeptical of extended U.S. military engagements abroad. Marco Rubio, confirmed unanimously as secretary of state in 2025 after serving as senator for Florida from 2011, represents a longer national-security résumé and a more interventionist strand on certain issues, notably toward Cuba and regime-change rhetoric. Both men had criticized Donald Trump at earlier points in their careers before joining his administration.
Main Event
The CPAC straw poll took place during a four-day conference featuring speeches, panels and a vote among attendees on who they preferred to lead the Republican ticket in 2028. Organizers reported nearly 1,600 participants cast ballots; results were announced on stage on Saturday, March 28. Vance’s 53 percent majority on that ballot contrasted with Rubio’s 35 percent and left other potential figures well behind in the CPAC activist sample. Organizers cautioned that participation is self-selected and that CPAC’s activist makeup differs from the broader primary electorate.
Rubio’s climb to second place represented a sharp turnaround from the previous year’s CPAC poll, where he and Representative Elise Stefanik each earned 3 percent. Last year’s results—taken shortly after Trump began his second term—showed Vance at 61 percent, Steve Bannon at 12 percent and Florida Governor Ron DeSantis at 7 percent. Conference programming this year included notable right-wing and international conservative voices such as Senator Ted Cruz, Iranian opposition leader Reza Pahlavi, and Eduardo and Flavio Bolsonaro, sons of Brazil’s former president.
Speakers and panels underscored key divisions within the conservative movement: isolationist skepticism toward foreign entanglements on one hand and hawkish national-security arguments on the other. Several sessions addressed the ongoing war in Iran and its economic fallout, including rising gasoline prices linked to the conflict—issues cited by attendees when weighing hypothetical 2028 choices. With President Trump legally barred from serving more than two terms under current law, CPAC voters engaged in early jockeying over successors even as the president’s political standing showed signs of erosion.
Analysis & Implications
The straw poll result reflects activist priorities and may shape early fundraising and media narratives, but its direct translation into primary outcomes is uncertain. Vance’s plurality at CPAC signals continued strength for the isolationist, populist wing that supported Trump’s earlier campaigns; it also suggests activists remain attracted to candidates emphasizing cultural and domestic themes over interventionist foreign policy. Rubio’s leap to 35 percent indicates a simultaneous appetite among some activists for experienced, establishment-oriented figures who can argue for a more assertive international line.
In the immediate political calendar, Republicans face the November 2026 midterms, where control of Congress is at stake. The CPAC result can energize primary coalitions and influence donor attention, yet midterm voters and the broader primary electorate differ demographically and geographically from CPAC attendees. If the party’s activists coalesce behind a nominee early, it could shorten the competitive field; if divisions persist—especially over foreign policy and Trump’s legacy—the nomination could remain contested into 2028.
Internationally, the contrast between Vance’s relative isolationism and Rubio’s hawkishness matters for allies and adversaries alike. A potential Vance-led ticket would likely prioritize restraint and narrower security commitments, whereas a Rubio-led campaign could signal a return to more assertive U.S. diplomacy in specific theaters. Markets and foreign governments often react not only to who leads a party but to intra-party consensus about trade, sanctions and defense commitments.
Comparison & Data
| Candidate | CPAC Straw Poll 2025 | CPAC Straw Poll 2026 |
|---|---|---|
| JD Vance | 61% | 53% |
| Marco Rubio | 3% | 35% |
| Steve Bannon | 12% | — |
| Ron DeSantis | 7% | — |
The table highlights the shift between CPAC ballots: Vance’s share fell from 61% to 53% year-on-year, while Rubio’s support rose dramatically. Dashes indicate candidates who were not prominent in the 2026 CPAC straw poll reporting or whose 2026 figures were not released publicly. Analysts caution that CPAC outcomes have at times diverged from primary results—most notably in 2016 when straw poll favorites did not clinch the nomination.
Reactions & Quotes
Party figures and commentators offered divergent readings of the vote. Supporters framed the result as an affirmation of activist priorities; critics warned against overinterpreting an attendee poll. Below are representative remarks reported at the conference and in immediate reaction.
“This shows activists are rallying around a candidate who speaks to their priorities on economy and national sovereignty.”
GOP strategist (at CPAC)
The strategist offered that activist consolidation can help early momentum in fundraising and media attention, but added that translating CPAC enthusiasm into primary wins requires broader appeal across state-by-state electorates.
“Rubio’s climb reflects voters who favor experience and a tougher stance abroad.”
Foreign policy commentator
The commentator noted that Rubio’s record on Cuba and national-security credentials likely informed his stronger showing among attendees concerned with international threats, and that his role as secretary of state increased his visibility.
“Straw polls are a snapshot of activists, not a prediction of primary outcomes.”
Nonpartisan election analyst
Election analysts reiterated that CPAC’s activist sample skews ideologically and demographically, and that national primary electorates can behave differently, especially in open-field nomination contests.
Unconfirmed
- Whether JD Vance will formally enter a 2028 presidential primary contest remains unannounced; the straw poll reflects attendee preference, not declared candidacy.
- Claims that the CPAC result directly predicts primary-state outcomes lack conclusive evidence; historical divergences have occurred.
- Attribution of the drop in Trump’s approval solely to the Iran war and gas prices is an interpretation; approval ratings reflect multiple factors and voter cohorts.
Bottom Line
JD Vance’s victory in the CPAC 2026 straw poll underscores the continuing influence of the MAGA-aligned activist base within Republican activist circles, while Marco Rubio’s advance signals that establishment or experienced figures can still regain traction among conservatives. The poll is meaningful for messaging, donor signals and early momentum, but it should not be mistaken for a definitive primary forecast. With the November 2026 midterms approaching and the 2028 presidency technically open once Trump’s second term ends, intra-party debates over foreign policy, electability and ideological direction are likely to intensify.
For voters and observers, the key question is how CPAC activists’ preferences interact with broader primary electorates across diverse states. Campaigns that convert activist enthusiasm into wider voter coalitions will be best positioned for 2028; for now, the straw poll offers a snapshot of where energized conservative activists stand, not an ultimate outcome.