Lead: Stock futures were largely unchanged on Friday as investors monitored a fragile two-week ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran that has left the Strait of Hormuz largely restricted. S&P 500 futures hovered near flat, Nasdaq 100 futures were up about 0.1%, and Dow futures were down roughly 26 points (about 0.1%). Oil traders kept a cautious tone: U.S. West Texas Intermediate traded around $98–$99 a barrel while Brent remained near $96. Markets had rallied earlier in the week after the pause in hostilities, but traders flagged that any renewal of disruptions could quickly reverse gains.
Key takeaways
- S&P 500 futures were essentially flat on Friday, while Nasdaq 100 futures rose about 0.1% and Dow futures fell roughly 26 points (≈0.1%).
- U.S. WTI crude for May delivery was trading near $98.46 a barrel (around 7:20 a.m. ET); Brent for June was near $96.36 a barrel.
- Stocks had advanced the prior session: S&P 500 +0.62%, Nasdaq Composite +0.83% and the Dow +275.88 points (0.58%), putting the Dow back in positive territory for 2026.
- The week-to-date moves put the S&P up ~3.7%, the Dow up ~3.6% and the Nasdaq up ~4.3% through Thursday’s close.
- President Donald Trump extended a two-week deadline for Iran to reopen the strait and warned publicly against fees being levied on tankers transiting the waterway.
- Market-sensitive US economic releases this week include March CPI (Dow Jones economists see +0.9% month/month, +3.3% year/year), durable goods, factory orders and the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey.
- Premarket movers included Lumentum (+5% intraday), Coherent (+4%), ServiceNow (-1.5% after a UBS downgrade) and rebounds in cybersecurity names Palo Alto Networks and CrowdStrike (+2%+).
Background
The Middle East conflict has entered its sixth week and prompted the closure—formal or de facto—of traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint that accounts for a significant share of seaborne oil flows. On Tuesday night the U.S. and Iran agreed to a two-week pause in direct hostilities tied to an expectation that vessel traffic could be restored, but the corridor remained largely restricted during Friday trading. The ceasefire is fragile: officials and regional actors have issued conflicting statements on compliance and violations, keeping traders on edge.
Energy markets are especially sensitive because any renewed closure or tariffs on shipping could tighten global supply quickly. The risk has combined with normal macro watchpoints—chiefly U.S. inflation data—to give market participants multiple decision points this week. Equity gains earlier in the week reflected relief that the immediate threat of a broader disruption abated, but analysts caution that a temporary pause does not eliminate medium-term volatility in energy and risk assets.
Main event
On the New York morning session, S&P 500 futures were near the unchanged mark while Nasdaq 100 futures posted a modest gain of about 0.1%; Dow futures were down roughly 26 points, or 0.1%. The flat futures readings came after the prior session’s broad advance where the S&P rose 0.62%, Nasdaq 0.83% and the Dow added 275.88 points—moves investors attributed to the ceasefire and hopes for de-escalation in the region.
President Donald Trump used his Truth Social account on Thursday to warn Iran against charging fees to oil tankers transiting the Strait of Hormuz, saying they “better not be” charging such fees and that any charges should stop. Iranian and regional reactions were mixed: Tehran’s parliamentary speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf said Israel’s continued strikes on Lebanon violated the ceasefire, while Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Israel had agreed to negotiate with Lebanon “as soon as possible,” a comment that briefly eased risk sentiment.
Oil prices reflected the tug-of-war between risk and relief. U.S. WTI for May delivery was trading about $98.46 per barrel around 7:20 a.m. ET, and Brent for June was around $96.36 per barrel. Earlier intraday action saw WTI cross $100 before easing back; traders cited restricted traffic through the Hormuz corridor despite the ceasefire agreement as the key driver of the swings.
On the corporate front, several stocks moved ahead of the open: photonics names Lumentum (reported +5%) and Coherent (+4%) climbed on bookings and AI-related demand commentary; ServiceNow slipped ~1.5% after UBS cut its rating; and cybersecurity names Palo Alto Networks and CrowdStrike recovered after Thursday’s sell-off tied to doubts around an Anthropic partnership, each bouncing more than 2% in early trade.
Analysis & implications
The prevailing market view is one of conditional relief. If the two-week pause holds and shipping resumes, energy price pressure could ease over the coming months—an outcome reflected in some strategists’ base cases. For instance, J.P. Morgan Private Bank strategists see a path where energy prices gradually moderate over three to six months, which would cushion the hit to growth while allowing inflation pressures to subside slowly.
However, the situation remains asymmetric: a limited resumption of traffic would still leave the oil complex vulnerable to renewed shocks. Traders price this asymmetry by giving oil a premium while keeping equities sensitive to geopolitical headlines. Central banks will watch the CPI prints closely; higher-than-expected inflation could complicate the policy backdrop even if growth slows mildly.
For risk assets, the immediate implication is that earnings season could provide the next structural catalyst. If corporate results align with constructive growth expectations, the relief rally may gather momentum. Conversely, any expansion of hostilities or new barriers to Hormuz traffic would likely trigger a fast re-pricing—higher oil, weaker risk assets, and renewed safe-haven flows into Treasuries and the dollar.
Comparison & data
| Instrument | Latest (session) | Week-to-date |
|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 futures | ~flat (0.0%) | +3.7% |
| Dow futures | -26 pts (-0.1%) | +3.6% |
| Nasdaq 100 futures | +0.1% | +4.3% |
| WTI (May) | $98.46 / bbl | + (elevated vs. March) |
| Brent (June) | $96.36 / bbl | + (elevated vs. March) |
Context: the table summarizes session-level futures moves and week-to-date gains through Thursday’s close. Oil prices remain elevated compared with pre-conflict levels, reflecting ongoing shipping constraints and geopolitical risk premia.
Reactions & quotes
“They better not be and, if they are, they better stop now!”
President Donald Trump (Truth Social)
Trump’s message underscored U.S. pressure on Tehran to refrain from taxing or otherwise impeding commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Markets treated the post as part of the broader diplomatic and tactical exchange between capitals rather than a standalone policy shift.
“We have agreed to negotiate with Lebanon as soon as possible.”
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu
Netanyahu’s remark, reported on Thursday, helped dampen some immediate market worries by signaling a move toward talks, though analysts cautioned that negotiation commitments do not guarantee durable de-escalation.
“Energy prices are likely to come down”
Stephen Parker, J.P. Morgan Private Bank
Parker’s view—summarized from his CNBC appearance—reflects a common strategist stance that the current relief could transition into a gradual easing in energy prices, supporting equities if inflation and growth remain manageable.
Unconfirmed
- Whether Iran is systematically charging transit fees to tankers remains unverified beyond isolated reports and public accusations.
- The timeline and concrete steps for Israel-Lebanon negotiations and whether those talks will affect ceasefire durability are not yet confirmed.
- The extent to which traffic through the Strait of Hormuz will return to pre-conflict volumes within the two-week pause is uncertain and dependent on on-the-ground security developments.
Bottom line
The market mood on Friday was cautiously constructive: equities were supported by a fragile ceasefire and hopes of resumed trade through the Strait of Hormuz, while oil prices stayed elevated because the corridor remained largely restricted. Key macro releases—especially March CPI—pose a near-term risk that could either validate the rally (if inflation cools) or complicate the outlook (if inflation surprises to the upside).
Investors should treat the current calm as conditional. If diplomatic and negotiating steps reduce the probability of renewed disruption, oil risk premia may ease and provide a clearer path for equities into earnings season. But the balance remains delicate: a reversal in the ceasefire, renewed attacks, or new restrictions on shipping would likely trigger rapid market repricing across commodities, equities and currencies.