Lead
On 24 May 2026 Pakistan’s prime minister said Islamabad hopes to host another round of US–Iran negotiations “very soon” after US president Donald Trump declared a memorandum of understanding with Tehran had been “largely negotiated.” US secretary of state Marco Rubio, speaking in New Delhi, described “significant” progress in talks but cautioned the outline was not final. Reports indicate the draft would reopen the Strait of Hormuz during a 60‑day ceasefire extension, allow Iran to sell oil and defer detailed nuclear negotiations. Officials and regional leaders warned the draft remains provisional and could yet collapse.
Key takeaways
- The draft memorandum reportedly includes a 60‑day ceasefire extension and a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz to toll‑free navigation during that period.
- Iran would be allowed to resume oil sales and some frozen Iranian funds would be released in the first phase; US blockade of Iranian ports has been in place since 13 April 2026 according to reporting.
- US secretary of state Marco Rubio said “significant” progress was made over the previous 48 hours but stressed the terms are not final; Trump said the deal was “largely negotiated.”
- Reports say Iran would clear mines in the strait and not impose passage tolls; Iranian outlets maintained Tehran would retain control of the waterway.
- A senior Iranian source told Reuters Tehran has not agreed to hand over its highly enriched uranium (HEU) stockpile; the NYT reported Tehran may have signalled limited willingness in separate reporting.
- Regional actors including Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, Egypt, Jordan, Bahrain, Pakistan and Turkey participated in high‑level calls with Trump about the proposed outline.
- Senior US critics including former secretary of state Mike Pompeo and Senator Ted Cruz publicly condemned the emerging draft as overly favourable to Iran.
Background
The talks come after months of escalating conflict in the Middle East that followed US‑led and Israeli airstrikes on Iranian military facilities. US and Israeli operations since last year have, according to open reporting, significantly degraded portions of Iran’s military infrastructure, but many strategic goals tied to Iran’s nuclear and missile capabilities remain contested.
Diplomatic mediators, led most visibly by Pakistan, began a series of shuttle talks weeks ago; a first round in Islamabad six weeks earlier, led by US vice‑president JD Vance, ended without an agreement. The draft memorandum now reported would temporarily stabilise shipping through the Strait of Hormuz — a chokepoint that handles a substantial share of global oil traffic — while deferring the technical negotiation of nuclear constraints to a later phase.
Domestic politics in the US and across the region shape the window for any deal: Republican hawks have framed earlier strikes as decisive victories and warned against concessions, while many Gulf and European leaders have pushed early for de‑escalation to protect markets and infrastructure.
Main event
On 24 May President Trump posted that a proposal between the US and Iran was “largely negotiated,” while cautioning that final aspects were still being discussed. The announcement followed a weekend of calls involving Trump, regional leaders and mediators; Pakistan’s prime minister Shehbaz Sharif said Islamabad hoped to host a further round “very soon.”
Marco Rubio, speaking to reporters in New Delhi, said negotiators had made “significant” progress in the preceding 48 hours but emphasised that the progress was not final. He reiterated US policy that Iran must never obtain a nuclear weapon and that the Strait of Hormuz should remain open to global shipping without tolls.
According to Axios, the draft memorandum would lift the US blockade of Iranian ports imposed on 13 April, require Iran to remove mines and allow unrestricted passage in the strait during a 60‑day truce, and unfreeze some Iranian assets. Iranian state and semi‑official outlets such as Tasnim described aspects differently, stressing Tehran would retain control over the strait and noting Iran had not agreed to concrete steps on its nuclear program.
Iranian statements cited by Reuters said the draft would be sent to Iran’s supreme national security council and, if approved, forwarded to Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei for final sign‑off. International reporting has noted no verified public appearances of Khamenei since his appointment in early March, and separate accounts have alleged he suffered serious injury in the 28 February strike that killed his predecessor, claims that remain disputed.
The draft also reportedly would include halting hostilities on all fronts, including the Israel–Lebanon theatre; that provision alarmed Israeli officials who sought assurances on their security, and Israeli leaders stressed they would retain the right to act if Hezbollah rearmed or attacked.
Analysis & implications
If implemented, a 60‑day truce and reopening of the Strait of Hormuz would immediately reduce pressure on global oil markets by allowing Iranian exports to resume; market relief could be swift but temporary if broader political and verification questions remain unresolved. Oil traders and global insurers are likely to respond within hours of confirmation, but the size and timing of any fund releases will determine longer‑term market effects.
Deferring detailed nuclear constraints to a later phase shifts the negotiation burden into a technically complex period that will require intrusive verification, timelines for reducing enrichment capability and irreversible steps for HEU disposition. That work typically takes months and depends on inspectors’ access and agreed benchmarks — conditions that many US critics argue must be spelled out before sanctions relief.
Regionally, an agreement that halts active hostilities could cool the Israel–Hezbollah front and reduce Houthi attacks on Red Sea shipping, but the durability of peace will depend on whether proxy networks and missile inventories are addressed. Tehran’s continued political and material ties with groups such as Hezbollah are central to Israeli security concerns; any perceived allowance of that support will generate domestic backlash in Israel and among US hawks.
Politically within the US, the draft sits at the centre of a partisan debate: proponents stress diplomacy can secure rapid de‑escalation without further military cost, while opponents portray the draft as rewarding Iran without adequate guarantees. The incoming phase of technical nuclear talks will likely become the next battleground in both diplomatic and domestic political arenas.
Comparison & data
| Item | Reported draft MOU | 2015 JCPOA (benchmark) |
|---|---|---|
| Ceasefire / timeline | 60‑day ceasefire extension; 30‑day procedural window for Hormuz measures | Longer phased limits and verification over years |
| Strait of Hormuz | Reopen, mines cleared, no tolls during truce | No specific maritime clauses |
| Nuclear stockpiles | Negotiations on nuclear limits deferred to second phase; Iran has not agreed to surrender HEU | Extensive limits and stockpile monitoring agreed and implemented |
| Sanctions / assets | Some frozen funds to be released in phase one; US blockade to be lifted | Sanctions relief phased with verified implementation |
The table outlines where the reported MOU diverges from the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). The draft prioritises immediate de‑escalation and maritime freedom, while postponing nuclear verification to a later, more technical stage — a reversal of the JCPOA’s simultaneous sequencing of limits and sanctions relief.
Reactions & quotes
US secretary of state Marco Rubio framed the developments as fragile progress while reiterating non‑proliferation red lines and navigational freedom for the strait.
“We have made some progress over the last 48 hours…that could ultimately — if it succeeds — leave us not just with a completely open strait,”
Marco Rubio, US secretary of state
Rubio spoke in New Delhi and emphasised that technical nuclear questions would require further work and compliance before being finalised.
President Trump publicly signalled near‑completion of an outline via his social platform but warned finalisation was pending; his post prompted immediate scrutiny and comment from regional and domestic actors.
“Final aspects and details of the Deal are currently being discussed, and will be announced shortly,”
Donald Trump, US president (posting on Truth Social)
European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen welcomed the signs of progress while demanding a deal that de‑escalates the conflict and prevents nuclear proliferation.
“We need a deal that truly de‑escalates the conflict, reopens the strait of Hormuz and guarantees toll‑free full freedom of navigation,”
Ursula von der Leyen, European Commission president
Unconfirmed
- No verified public sighting or recording of Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei has been independently confirmed; reports about his injury and the 28 February killing of his predecessor remain unverified in open sources.
- Reports that Iran has agreed to surrender or significantly reduce its HEU stockpile are inconsistent across outlets and lack a clear mechanism for disposition.
- The exact size, timing and conditions of any frozen Iranian asset releases have not been made public and remain subject to negotiation.
- Whether the Lebanon‑Israel front will be fully and independently settled as part of the US–Iran outline is disputed; Israeli officials have expressed reservations.
Bottom line
The reported draft MOU reflects a pragmatic diplomatic pivot: prioritise an immediate halt to large‑scale hostilities, reopen a critical maritime route and buy time to address nuclear and proxy issues. That sequencing can deliver fast de‑escalation and relief for global markets but shifts the hardest verification tasks into a later phase where technical, political and inspection disputes will intensify.
The deal’s survival will depend on clear, enforceable verification steps, transparency about asset transfers and credible mechanisms to prevent re‑armament by proxies. Domestic politics in the US and Israel, plus Tehran’s red lines on sovereignty and control of regional allies, create real risks the outline could unravel unless mediators secure binding follow‑through.
Sources
- The Guardian (live coverage) — international press coverage (source provided)
- Reuters — international news agency (reporting cited on Iranian approvals and internal sources)
- Axios — US news site (reporting on the draft MOU terms)
- Tasnim News Agency — Iranian semi‑official news agency (statements attributed to Tehran)
- The New York Times — US news organisation (reporting on nuclear stockpile discussions)
- Turkish Presidency — official statement source for comments by President Erdoğan
- European Commission — official (statements by Ursula von der Leyen)