Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. reported slower monthly revenue growth on November 10, 2025, signaling growing uncertainty about the durability of the recent AI-driven demand surge. October sales rose 16.9% year‑on‑year — the weakest monthly increase since February 2024 — even as major customers such as Nvidia continue to seek additional chip capacity. Analysts, on average, are forecasting a roughly 16% rise in sales for the current quarter, while TSMC shares have climbed about 37% year‑to‑date. The report highlights a transition from rapid inventory build to a more measured ordering pattern among leading cloud and accelerator customers.
Key Takeaways
- TSMC reported October 2025 sales up 16.9% year‑on‑year, the slowest monthly growth since February 2024.
- Analysts’ consensus expects full‑quarter sales growth near 16% for the current quarter.
- Despite slower monthly momentum, TSMC shares have advanced roughly 37% year‑to‑date through November 10, 2025.
- Nvidia and other major AI customers continue to pursue chip allocations, but order pacing appears to be moderating.
- The result underscores an industry shift from aggressive inventory accumulation toward demand normalization.
- Near‑term risks include customer inventory adjustments, fab capacity constraints, and broader macro volatility.
Background
TSMC is the world’s largest dedicated semiconductor foundry, manufacturing advanced logic chips for customers including Nvidia, Apple and other cloud and AI infrastructure firms. The company’s capacity plans and revenue outlook are closely watched because TSMC’s production cadence sets the tone for the global chip supply chain. The AI hardware cycle — driven by demand for high‑performance GPUs and accelerators — produced a sharp rise in wafer starts and capital expenditure across the industry in 2024–2025.
That surge led many customers to expand inventories and secure multi‑quarter allocations, boosting TSMC’s revenue growth in recent periods. By early 2025 some customers began moderating orders as delivery schedules tightened and near‑term demand signals grew more variable. TSMC’s monthly sales releases are used by investors and analysts as a proxy for end‑market health in servers, cloud computing and AI appliances.
Main Event
On November 10, 2025 TSMC disclosed that October revenue growth slowed to 16.9% year‑on‑year, representing the slowest monthly advance since February 2024. The company did not revise its longer‑term capital plan in the announcement, but the monthly data intensified scrutiny over whether AI‑led demand can sustain previous expansion rates. Analysts note that a single month’s reading can reflect timing of shipments and customer build patterns, so the figure is meaningful but not determinative.
Industry customers such as Nvidia remain significant demand drivers as they expand data‑center GPU deployments, but reports and market signals suggest order timing has become uneven across vendor stacks. Some hyperscalers appear to be pacing purchases more cautiously, aiming to align inventory with usage rather than pursuing aggressive backlogs. That shift can compress short‑term revenue growth even while longer‑term secular demand for AI compute persists.
Investors reacted with a measured tone: TSMC shares have nevertheless rallied about 37% year‑to‑date through the November report, reflecting confidence in the company’s long‑run competitive position and the broader structural need for advanced node capacity. Market commentary following the release emphasized the distinction between temporary moderation in monthly metrics and long‑term capacity constraints that sustain foundry pricing power.
Analysis & Implications
TSMC’s October slowdown is consistent with a market moving from excess near‑term acceleration to a steadier growth phase. If customers are shifting from inventory accumulation to demand‑driven replenishment, wafer starts and shipment timing will show more variability month to month. That pattern can produce headline softness even as total annual demand remains elevated for leading process nodes used in AI accelerators.
For TSMC, the key operational metrics to watch are capacity utilization at 3nm/4nm and above, backlog by customer, and the cadence of new fabrications coming online. High utilization on advanced nodes supports pricing and margins even if billings grow more slowly. Conversely, extended customer pullbacks would pressure near‑term revenue and could prompt adjustments in guidance or capital allocation.
Competition and geopolitical factors also matter. Competitors such as Samsung and Intel Foundry are investing to win share at advanced nodes, while U.S.-China tensions and export controls can reshape where customers place orders. TSMC’s neutral stance with respect to customers and its large installed capacity remain advantages, but they do not eliminate market cyclicality tied to AI product cycles.
Comparison & Data
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| October 2025 YoY sales change | +16.9% |
| Analysts’ expected quarterly sales growth | ~+16% |
| TSMC share performance YTD (through Nov 10, 2025) | +~37% |
The table highlights the main numeric takeaways from the monthly release. Comparing a single‑month growth rate to quarterly projections helps separate timing effects from trend growth; a month with softer shipments can coexist with a healthy quarterly outcome if other months or product lines offset the decline.
Reactions & Quotes
Company and market responses were restrained and focused on context rather than alarm.
“October’s monthly result was the slowest since early 2024, reflecting a moderation in order pacing among some major customers.”
Company monthly release / Bloomberg summary
This framing—drawn from the company’s data release and market coverage—was echoed by sell‑side analysts who stressed timing effects.
“We see the figure as a timing issue linked to inventory normalization rather than a collapse in structural AI demand.”
Industry analyst commentary (summarized)
“Long‑term demand for advanced logic remains intact, but investors should expect more month‑to‑month variability.”
Market commentator (summarized)
Unconfirmed
- Whether the October slowdown marks the start of a lasting deceleration in AI chip orders remains unconfirmed and depends on forthcoming customer booking patterns.
- Reports that specific customers will materially cut multi‑quarter commitments have not been publicly corroborated by named corporate filings.
- Any near‑term change to TSMC’s announced capital expenditure plan was not included in the monthly data and remains unreported.
Bottom Line
TSMC’s October sales growth of 16.9% — the slowest monthly rate since February 2024 — flags a moderation in order pacing even as core structural demand for AI compute persists. The result is a reminder that monthly metrics can be noisy: shipment timing and inventory strategies influence headlines without necessarily changing the multi‑year outlook for advanced logic capacity.
Investors and customers should monitor advanced‑node utilization, backlog disclosures and quarterly guidance to judge whether the moderation is transitory. For now, a balanced reading is warranted: the AI market remains an important growth vector for TSMC, but the industry appears to be moving from a phase of rapid inventory accumulation toward more disciplined purchasing patterns that will produce greater month‑to‑month variability.
Sources
- Bloomberg — Media report (daily coverage of TSMC monthly sales)
- TSMC Investor Relations — Official company filings and monthly sales disclosures