Stocks futures traded near flat Sunday night as U.S. markets built on a second consecutive winning week, with investors shifting focus to the Federal Reserve’s final policy meeting of the year. Dow futures rose about 35 points (0.2%) while S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures each gained roughly 0.1%, according to evening trade. Last week the Dow and Nasdaq Composite climbed 0.5% and 0.9%, respectively, and the S&P 500 advanced about 0.3%, leaving the broad index roughly 0.7% below its intraday record. Market sentiment was buoyed late in the week after the delayed September core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index came in softer than economists had expected.
Key takeaways
- Dow futures were up roughly 35 points, or 0.2%, shortly after 6 p.m. ET Sunday; S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures rose about 0.1% each.
- For the week, the Dow gained 0.5%, the Nasdaq Composite added 0.9% and the S&P 500 rose about 0.3%.
- The S&P 500 sat about 0.7% below its all-time intraday high at week’s end.
- Core PCE for September was softer than anticipated, a key data point ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting this week.
- CME Group’s FedWatch tool priced roughly an 88% probability of an interest-rate cut at the upcoming meeting, up from under 67% a month earlier.
- S&P Global announced CRH, Carvana and Comfort Systems will join the S&P 500 on Dec. 22, replacing LKQ, Solstice Advanced Materials and Mohawk Industries.
- Investors will watch a slate of third-quarter and holiday-season earnings this week, including Lululemon, Costco, Broadcom, Oracle and Adobe.
Background
U.S. equity markets have drifted higher over recent weeks as investors have recalibrated expectations for Federal Reserve policy after a run of inflation data that, in some moments, hinted at cooling price pressures. The core PCE price index — the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge — is closely watched because it factors heavily into committee deliberations. A softer-than-expected reading in that series can lower near-term odds of further rate hikes and increase the perceived likelihood of easing.
Market pricing of Fed policy has shifted materially: futures markets now assign elevated odds to a rate cut at the FOMC meeting that concludes this year. That change partly reflects incoming data, but also investor assessments of the economic outlook, labor-market resilience and the balance-sheet stance of policymakers. Index rebalances and corporate earnings season add another layer of influence on index-level moves this week.
Main event
Sunday-night futures trading showed little net movement after equities posted back-to-back weekly gains. The modest futures uptick followed a string of positive sessions for major averages — the S&P 500 and Nasdaq put together four-day winning streaks by Friday, while the Dow finished positive in three of the last four sessions. Market participants cited the delayed release of September’s core PCE as a late-week catalyst.
The core PCE figure was released ahead of the FOMC gathering and was read as cooler than many economists expected, supporting a narrative that upside inflation risks have eased. That reception translated into higher probabilities priced into Fed funds futures for a policy easing at the December meeting. Traders and portfolio managers said their near-term positioning is now oriented around the Fed’s read of incoming data and the committee’s forward guidance.
Corporate news added micro-level volatility: S&P Global said CRH, Carvana and Comfort Systems will be added to the S&P 500 on Dec. 22, prompting strong after-hours moves — CRH rose more than 6%, Carvana jumped about 9% and Comfort Systems climbed roughly 1% in extended trading. Those index changes alter passive flows into the affected securities ahead of the reconstitution date.
Analysis & implications
The immediate market implication of a softer core PCE reading is increased confidence that the Fed may either hold rates steady or move toward easing at the December meeting. If the committee signals an openness to cut, risk assets typically respond positively as discount rates fall and earnings valuations get re-priced. However, the magnitude and timing of any cut remain key uncertainties, and markets can quickly reverse if committee language emphasizes caution.
An elevated probability of a December cut — roughly 88% per CME’s FedWatch — is already factored into asset prices to some extent, which means the actual FOMC statement and press conference could be more important than the event itself. Investors will scrutinize voting-member outlooks and any commentary on future leadership or the trajectory of policy, which may reshape expectations for 2026 monetary policy and economic growth.
On the corporate side, index rebalances such as the S&P 500 additions can produce concentrated flows into the new constituents and out of those being removed. For mid- and small-cap names, that can translate into outsized moves around the reconstitution date. Meanwhile, earnings from large bellwethers including Lululemon, Costco, Broadcom, Oracle and Adobe will provide fresh inputs on consumer spending, enterprise demand and technology budgets — all factors that interact with monetary policy outcomes.
Comparison & data
| Index | Weekly change | Notable level |
|---|---|---|
| Dow Jones Industrial Average | +0.5% | Futures +35 pts (~0.2%) |
| S&P 500 | +0.3% | ~0.7% below intraday high |
| Nasdaq Composite | +0.9% | Four-day win streak |
The table highlights recent weekly moves and the futures reaction Sunday evening. These short-term percentage changes are small relative to typical daily volatility in single stocks but meaningful for broad indices when combined with shifting Fed expectations and upcoming earnings results.
Reactions & quotes
“Markets are appropriately focused on an interest rate cut or hold coming out of the FOMC meeting,”
Northern Trust, Eric Freedman (CIO, Wealth Management)
Freedman added that investors are closely watching voting-member outlooks and signals about the Fed’s future leadership — factors that could shape policy expectations beyond the December meeting. Market strategists echoed that the committee’s tone, particularly on inflation risks and growth forecasts, will be the decisive element for risk assets.
“CRH, Carvana and Comfort Systems will join the S&P 500 beginning Dec. 22,”
S&P Global (index committee announcement)
S&P Global’s index change notice triggered notable after-hours moves in the newly announced constituents, reflecting anticipated flows tied to passive index-tracking funds ahead of the reconstitution date.
Unconfirmed
- The exact division of votes among FOMC members for a December cut is not public and remains speculative until the committee meets.
- Market pricing assumes a December cut is likely, but the scale and follow-through of cuts in 2026 are still uncertain and depend on incoming data.
Bottom line
U.S. equity futures were essentially flat Sunday night after another week of modest gains for major averages, with markets increasingly priced for a possible Fed easing in December after a softer core PCE print. The immediate market drivers are now a mix of central-bank guidance and company-specific news as earnings season ramps up.
Investors should expect heightened sensitivity to the FOMC statement and any language about member outlooks or leadership transitions; with probabilities already elevated for a cut, the market may focus more on nuance than headline outcomes. Earnings from large-cap names and the S&P 500 reconstitution on Dec. 22 add additional event risk and potential trading flows to watch this week.