Mike Florio and Chris Simms publish their straight-up and against-the-spread Week 1 2025 NFL picks on September 4, 2025, previewing tonight’s season opener in Philadelphia and projecting winners and scores across every matchup.
Key Takeaways
- Florio and Simms provide both straight-up and spread-aware picks for every Week 1 game (published Sept. 4, 2025).
- They disagree on seven matchups; Simms selects seven underdogs to win straight up.
- Opening night: Eagles vs. Cowboys at Lincoln Financial Field, with both analysts favoring Philadelphia.
- Several emotionally charged matchups highlighted, including Colts’ first regular-season game after owner Jim Irsay’s passing.
- Notable consensus picks include Patriots over Raiders and Broncos over Titans.
- Picks include exact final-score forecasts for each game, useful for early betting markets and fan debate.
Verified Facts
The picks were posted on September 4, 2025. Both analysts made a full slate of straight-up score projections; the published list includes the following matchups and predicted final scores from Florio and Simms.
| Game | Florio | Simms |
|---|---|---|
| Cowboys at Eagles | Eagles 30, Cowboys 17 | Eagles 27, Cowboys 20 |
| Chiefs at Chargers | Chiefs 21, Chargers 17 | Chiefs 28, Chargers 24 |
| Buccaneers at Falcons | Buccaneers 30, Falcons 24 | Falcons 23, Buccaneers 20 |
| Bengals at Browns | Bengals 31, Browns 17 | Bengals 27, Browns 24 |
| Dolphins at Colts | Colts 23, Dolphins 20 | Dolphins 24, Colts 21 |
| Panthers at Jaguars | Jaguars 24, Panthers 20 | Jaguars 28, Panthers 20 |
| Raiders at Patriots | Patriots 23, Raiders 17 | Patriots 23, Raiders 17 |
| Cardinals at Saints | Cardinals 21, Saints 17 | Cardinals 24, Saints 20 |
| Steelers at Jets | Steelers 24, Jets 10 | Steelers 20, Jets 16 |
| Giants at Commanders | Commanders 27, Giants 17 | Giants 21, Commanders 17 |
| Titans at Broncos | Broncos 28, Titans 20 | Broncos 28, Titans 17 |
| 49ers at Seahawks | 49ers 27, Seahawks 20 | Seahawks 23, 49ers 20 |
| Lions at Packers | Packers 24, Lions 20 | Lions 28, Packers 27 |
| Texans at Rams | Rams 24, Texans 20 | Texans 24, Rams 20 |
| Ravens at Bills | Ravens 30, Bills 27 | Ravens 30, Bills 21 |
| Vikings at Bears | Vikings 24, Bears 20 | Bears 23, Vikings 20 |
The article notes that Simms favors seven underdogs to win outright; Florio and Simms still reach identical outcomes on numerous games, including Patriots over Raiders and Broncos over Titans.
Context & Impact
Early-week picks like these shape conversation for bettors, fantasy players and fans ahead of kickoff. Exact-score projections are often used to compare market lines and can influence casual betting decisions even if they are not formal lines.
The opening-night game in Philadelphia carries extra spectacle: the Eagles will raise a banner while hosting the Cowboys, and both analysts give Philly the edge. Separately, the Colts’ Week 1 subplot — their first regular-season game after owner Jim Irsay’s passing — was flagged as a potential emotional influence on performance.
Agreeing and diverging picks highlight where analysts see volatility: Simms’ underdog choices suggest he expects more early-season upsets, while Florio leans toward a few cleaner favorites with larger margins in his scorelines.
Official Statements
“We’re back, baby.”
PFT / Mike Florio (opening line)
Unconfirmed
- Any injuries, late roster changes or weather conditions that emerge before kickoff could alter likely outcomes; those specifics were not part of the published picks.
- Future trades or last-minute coaching decisions are not reflected in these projections.
Bottom Line
Florio and Simms offer a full Week 1 roadmap with clear areas of agreement and seven meaningful disagreements that will be watched closely as games unfold. Their exact-score forecasts provide a quick reference for bettors and fans, but real-world factors (injuries, weather, in-game momentum) can upend any preseason or early-week prediction.