Lead: President Donald Trump on Dec. 16, 2025 vowed a “complete and total blockade” of sanctioned oil tankers moving in and out of Venezuela, a move that comes as U.S. and maritime trackers report dozens of sanctioned vessels in the Caribbean. A new analysis obtained by CNBC from trade intelligence firm Kpler shows at least 34 U.S.-sanctioned tankers are currently at sea and at least 12 appear to be carrying Venezuelan crude. One of those vessels, the Skipper, was seized by U.S. forces and is being taken toward the United States. Markets showed a modest reaction, with oil prices up roughly 2% on the day.
Key Takeaways
- At least 34 U.S.-sanctioned oil tankers with a history of carrying Venezuelan crude are at sea in the Caribbean as of mid-December 2025, per Kpler’s vessel-location analysis.
- Kpler identifies 12 of those vessels as likely loaded with Venezuelan oil; one, the Skipper, was seized by U.S. forces and routed to the United States.
- Venezuela has produced around 900,000 barrels of crude and condensate so far in 2025, representing roughly 1% of global supply; China purchased about 76% of that output, Kpler reports.
- The United States imported roughly 17% of Venezuela’s 2025 output to date, about half the share it imported in 2024, with Chevron the only U.S. firm licensed to move Venezuelan crude to the United States.
- Kpler analysts say a unilateral blockade focused on sanctioned, Venezuela-bound cargoes is unlikely to markedly lift global crude prices because the market remains segmented and crowded in the sanctioned tier.
- Analysts note that some sanctioned vessels have used AIS spoofing and ship-to-ship transfers to mask location and cargo movements, complicating enforcement and tracking efforts.
Background
For years Venezuela’s oil industry has been at the center of U.S. sanctions policy aimed at the Nicolás Maduro government. Sanctions target vessels, shipping intermediaries and state-linked entities to reduce the regime’s crude export revenues. Operators and intermediaries responded with evasive tactics such as turning off AIS transponders, using so-called dark fleets and conducting ship-to-ship transfers at sea to move cargoes out of sight.
The global oil market developed a practical division between openly traded cargoes and a crowded, sanctioned segment where buyers and tankers operate under higher legal and commercial risk. Major buyers shifted over time: China has taken a large share of Venezuelan deliveries, while U.S. flows have fallen. Licenses—most notably the Chevron authorization—permit limited lawful trade to the U.S. amid broader prohibitions.
Main Event
On Dec. 16, 2025 President Trump publicly declared a plan to impose a “complete and total blockade” on sanctioned tankers connected to Venezuelan oil, and characterized the Maduro regime as a foreign terrorist organization. The announcement raised immediate questions about how the U.S. would define and enforce such a blockade in international waters and which vessels would be subject to interdiction.
Kpler provided CNBC with a fresh snapshot of vessel positions showing 34 sanctioned ships in the Caribbean and identified 12 as likely laden with Venezuelan crude. The firm’s data—compiled from satellite feeds, AIS traces and commercial tracking services—flagged vessels including Skipper (seized), Star Twinkle 6, Hyperion, Boceanica, Lydya N and others as part of the monitored group.
The seizure of the tanker Skipper by U.S. forces occurred last week in Caribbean waters and the vessel is en route to U.S. custody, according to reporting and maritime tracking. Kpler analysts warn that tactics such as AIS spoofing and discrete ship-to-ship transfers have been used by some of the sanctioned fleet to evade detection, creating enforcement challenges.
U.S. authorities have signaled they intend to focus action on sanctioned tankers carrying Venezuelan cargoes rather than broadly targeting all tankers in the region. That approach would allow licensed shipments—principally those under Chevron’s authorization—to continue to reach the United States while pressuring routes and buyers tied to China, Cuba and other destinations.
Analysis & Implications
Immediate market impact appears limited: Kpler and other analysts argue a blockade aimed solely at the sanctioned Venezuelan segment will not by itself overhaul global supply fundamentals. The sanctioned tier remains technically large and crowded, but much of global crude trading operates through separate channels not directly affected by Venezuela-specific measures.
Supply disruption risk is concentrated on buyers who rely on Venezuela—China, Cuba and some European refiners—who would face either shortages or higher compliance costs. Kpler suggests China could substitute cargoes with oil from Russia and Iran; such realignments would shift geopolitical leverage but may limit global price spikes.
Legally and diplomatically, interdiction of vessels on the high seas raises complex questions. A U.S.-led seizure of sanctioned tankers navigates between domestic sanction law, international maritime law and the risk of confrontation with third-party states whose nationals or flags are involved. Each seizure or enforcement action could prompt diplomatic protests or reciprocal measures.
Operationally, enforcement will be resource-intensive: naval or coast guard assets, intelligence coordination, and legal case-building will be required to move from declaration to sustained interdiction. Firms and insurers may respond by rerouting, delaying sailings, or increasing premiums for voyages linked to Venezuelan crude.
Comparison & Data
| Metric | Figure / Note |
|---|---|
| Sanctioned tankers at sea | 34 (Kpler, mid‑Dec 2025) |
| Sanctioned tankers likely carrying Venezuelan crude | 12 (Kpler) |
| Venezuela production (so far in 2025) | ~900,000 barrels crude & condensate (~1% global supply) |
| Share of Venezuela sales to China (2025) | ~76% (Kpler) |
| Share of Venezuela sales to U.S. (2025) | ~17% (about half of 2024 share) |
These figures show where disruption would concentrate: relatively few vessels and specific trade links, rather than the broader global crude throughput. That explains Kpler’s view that an immediate price shock is unlikely, though regional supply relationships could be materially altered.
Reactions & Quotes
“In light of President Trump’s recent announcement, these tankers may be exposed to heightened scrutiny and potential enforcement actions by U.S. authorities.”
Dimitris Ampatzidis, Senior Risk & Compliance Analyst, Kpler (to CNBC)
The Kpler analyst framed the announcement as an escalation that raises operational and legal exposure for vessels on the sanctioned list.
“Some vessels engaged in AIS spoofing to obscure their locations; with AIS switched off, there were multiple ship-to-ship transfers while dark.”
Matt Smith, Head U.S. Analyst, Kpler
Smith’s note underscores the tracking and verification challenges enforcement agencies face when vessels deliberately obscure movements.
“Cargoes bound for the US under Chevron’s license could continue to flow, while China- and Cuba-bound cargoes would bear the brunt of the impact.”
Kpler client note (Dec. 2025)
Kpler’s client advisory summarized the likely trade diversion effects if the U.S. targets only sanctioned Venezuela-bound shipments.
Unconfirmed
- Whether all 12 Kpler‑identified tankers currently marked as carrying Venezuelan crude have full cargoes remains subject to confirmation through physical inspections or manifest records.
- Precise legal rules and operational thresholds the U.S. would use to execute a sustained “blockade”—including geographic limits and rules of engagement—have not been published.
- Attribution of recent AIS irregularities to deliberate spoofing versus technical outages or operator error has not been independently verified for each vessel.
Bottom Line
The Trump administration’s vow to block sanctioned tankers tied to Venezuelan oil elevates political pressure on Caracas and complicates maritime commerce for a defined segment of the market. Kpler’s data show the potential targets are relatively concentrated—dozens of vessels in a crowded sanctioned tier—so impacts should be focused rather than economy‑wide at first.
Practical enforcement will be complicated by maritime concealment tactics, the need for international legal grounding, and likely efforts by affected buyers to substitute supplies from other producers. Observers should watch for follow-up guidance from U.S. authorities on the scope of interdiction, any additional seizures, and market responses from China, Russia and regional buyers.