Lead: U.S. nonfarm payrolls increased by a seasonally adjusted 64,000 in November after an abbreviated October count showed a 105,000 decline, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said on Tuesday in figures delayed by the recent government shutdown. The unemployment rate climbed to 4.6%, the highest since September 2021, while a broader measure including discouraged and involuntary part-time workers reached 8.7%. The report reflects both data disruptions tied to the shutdown and large sectoral swings, with health care accounting for the bulk of November’s gains.
Key Takeaways
- Nonfarm payrolls rose by 64,000 in November, above the Dow Jones estimate of 45,000.
- October payrolls were revised to a 105,000 decline in an abbreviated release; government employment fell 162,000 in October and a further 6,000 in November.
- The headline unemployment rate rose to 4.6% in November, while the broader U-6 rate reached 8.7%.
- Sector winners in November: health care (+46,000), construction (+28,000), social assistance (+18,000); losers: transportation & warehousing (-18,000), leisure & hospitality (-12,000).
- Average hourly earnings rose 0.1% for the month and were up 3.5% year-over-year, the smallest annual gain since May 2021.
- Household employment rose 407,000 over two months, while the labor force climbed 323,000, lifting the participation rate to 62.5%.
- Data collection issues from the government shutdown affected the household survey and prompted cancellation of the October CPI release.
- Markets assign roughly a 24% probability to a Fed rate cut in January, per CME Group FedWatch, after the Fed cut the funds rate by 25 basis points most recently to a 3.50%–3.75% target range.
Background
The Bureau of Labor Statistics typically publishes monthly employment data from two primary sources: the establishment survey (payrolls) and the household survey (unemployment and labor force measures). This month’s release was delayed and modified after a federal shutdown disrupted Bureau operations, forcing the BLS to issue an abbreviated October count and caution that household survey results will be affected for several months. Economists and market participants expected some disruption but had varied forecasts for the direction and magnitude of revisions.
The U.S. labor market has shown a pattern of modest hiring and low separation rates in recent quarters, shaped by demographic trends and policy changes. Employers in health care have consistently added workers amid an aging population, while sectors tied to trade and travel have exhibited more volatility. Fiscal and administrative shifts—most notably deferred layoffs in government payrolls earlier in the year—have contributed to abrupt month-to-month swings in the official counts.
Main Event
The BLS reported November payroll growth of 64,000, outpacing the Dow Jones consensus of 45,000. Nearly three-quarters of the net increase came from health care, which added 46,000 jobs. Construction contributed 28,000 positions and social assistance added 18,000. Those gains were offset by losses in transportation and warehousing (-18,000) and leisure and hospitality (-12,000).
October’s abbreviated release showed payrolls down 105,000, driven largely by a 162,000 decline in government employment as previously deferred layoffs were recorded. Government payrolls declined an additional 6,000 in November. The BLS also revised August payrolls down by 22,000 (to a loss of 26,000) and trimmed September’s initial gain by 11,000, reducing a previously reported surprise increase of 108,000.
On the household side, employment rose by 407,000 over the two-month window, while the labor force expanded by 323,000, nudging the participation rate up to 62.5%. The unemployment rate increased by 0.1 percentage point to 4.6%, and the broader U-6 unemployment measure — which includes discouraged workers and those working part time for economic reasons — rose to 8.7%.
Analysis & Implications
The headline numbers paint a mixed picture: modest payroll growth in November but notable weakness in October and elevated unemployment measures. The heavy concentration of November gains in health care suggests persistent structural hiring in that sector rather than broad-based cyclical strength. Analysts caution that when a large share of net job creation is concentrated in a single industry, it signals less resilience elsewhere in the economy.
Government payroll volatility underscores how administrative timing and policy decisions can distort monthly readings. Deferred public-sector layoffs being recorded in October produced a sharp, but largely mechanical, decline — complicating the interpretation of private-sector momentum. For policymakers and markets, disentangling these timing effects from underlying economic trends is essential before adjusting monetary policy expectations.
Wage growth softened: average hourly earnings rose only 0.1% for the month and 3.5% year-over-year, the slowest annual increase since May 2021. That moderation reduces near-term inflationary pressure from labor costs and gives the Federal Reserve room to balance concerns about labor-market softness against the risk of rekindling inflation.
Comparison & Data
| Month | Payroll change (seasonally adjusted) | Unemployment rate |
|---|---|---|
| August | -26,000 (revised) | — |
| September | 108,000 (initial) → revised down 11,000 | — |
| October | -105,000 (abbreviated) | — |
| November | +64,000 | 4.6% |
The table highlights recent volatility: three negative monthly payroll outcomes in the past six months and downward revisions that reduce the appearance of sustained hiring momentum. Sector-level detail shows health care as the primary engine of recent gains, while transportation and leisure sectors remain soft. Readers should note that abbreviated and revised counts increase uncertainty around short-run trends.
Reactions & Quotes
Market and policy commentators framed the report as informative but limited by data issues.
“The report on December’s employment data, released in early January ahead of the next meeting, will likely be a much more meaningful indicator for the Fed when it comes to deciding the near-term policy trajectory.”
Kay Haigh, Goldman Sachs Asset Management (market strategist)
Independent economists highlighted the slow pace of net job creation when summed across months.
“The U.S. economy is in a jobs recession. The nation has added a mere 100,000 in the past six months. The bulk of those jobs were in healthcare,”
Heather Long, Chief Economist, Navy Federal Credit Union
Fed policy watchers noted that softer wage growth likely tempers immediate inflation concerns and that the Fed is monitoring incoming data before committing to further rate moves.
Unconfirmed
- The precise share of the government payroll decline directly attributable to a single deferred layoff program versus broader staffing adjustments remains unclear and is not fully documented in the BLS brief.
- The extent to which stricter border enforcement materially reduced labor supply flows in November is suggested by analysts but not directly measured in these BLS releases.
Bottom Line
November’s employment report, issued after shutdown-related delays, shows modest payroll gains concentrated in health care alongside a pickup in unemployment measures. Data disruptions and large government payroll moves make it difficult to infer a clear trajectory for private-sector hiring from these two months alone.
For policymakers, the report eases immediate wage-driven inflation concerns but underscores uncertainty. Markets and the Fed will likely focus on December’s jobs data and early-2026 readings to assess whether the labor market is weakening broadly or if recent weakness reflects timing and sector-specific shifts.