On January 10, 2026, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) assessed that Russian forces continued multi-axis offensive operations across eastern and southern Ukraine — notably in northern Kharkiv, Kupyansk, Luhansk/Donetsk directions, and the Zaporizhia and Kherson axes — but made no confirmed, broad territorial gains that day. ISW reported recurring Russian infiltration attempts, persistent drone and glide-bomb strikes on Ukrainian rear-area infrastructure, and localized fighting in urban and settlement nodes; Ukrainian forces continued targeted mid-range strikes against Russian military and energy targets in occupied areas.
Key Takeaways
- On January 9–10 Russian forces pressed offensives in northern Kharkiv Oblast (near Vovchansk and Prylipka) but achieved no confirmed advances on January 10.
- Kupyansk sector saw continued Russian attacks around Kupyansk and adjacent villages without confirmed frontline changes; ISW geolocated infiltration-related engagements on January 9–10.
- In the Lyman/Slovyansk/Kramatorsk area Russian assaults continued with no confirmed gains; a FAB-250 glide bomb strike on Slovyansk on January 10 injured seven civilians.
- Ukrainian mid-range strikes on the night of January 9–10 struck multiple Russian concentrations and electrical substations in occupied Donetsk and Zaporizhia oblasts, including sites in Kurakhivka, Hirnyk, Zorya, and Volnovakha.
- In the Pokrovsk and Kostyantynivka directions Russian forces intensified drone and glide-bomb use (KABs), with Ukrainian officials reporting 20–30 KAB strikes per day in some brigade areas.
- Russian units and drone detachments named by ISW (for example elements of the 47th Tank Division, 68th Motorized Rifle Division, 3rd CAA formations, and assorted VDV and spetsnaz drone units) continued to operate across multiple axes.
- Weather and darkness continue to shape operations: Ukrainian commanders report Russian exploitation of poor conditions to conduct small-group infiltrations and mechanized probes at dusk and night.
Background
Since large-scale hostilities resumed in 2022, Russia has prioritized simultaneous pressure across several frontlines in eastern and southern Ukraine to seize or hold territory and degrade Ukrainian operational freedom. By early 2026 Moscow’s campaign retained a multi-pronged character: main efforts pushing from the northeast toward Kharkiv and Kupyansk, a second objective aimed at seizing Luhansk and pushing into eastern Kharkiv Oblast, and a large effort to capture Donetsk Oblast and press toward Dnipropetrovsk. A supporting southern axis seeks to secure occupied Zaporizhia and threaten Zaporizhzhia City and Kherson oblast objectives.
Both sides have adapted to protracted attritional warfare. Russian forces increasingly employ glide bombs (KABs), FPV and loitering drones, and small infiltration teams to probe Ukrainian lines and strike rear-area infrastructure. Ukrainian forces have prioritized counterbattery fire, UAV strikes at range, and selective local counterattacks to blunt Russian probes and disrupt logistics and command nodes in occupied areas.
Main Event
On January 9–10 Russian forces continued offensive operations across the Kharkiv, Kupyansk, Borova, and Lyman/Slovyansk areas but ISW found no evidence of confirmed, durable frontline advances on January 10. Geolocated footage from January 9–10 showed Ukrainian strikes against Russian-occupied buildings in southern and southeastern Vovchansk and engagements near Prylipka, Starytsya, Zelene, Vilcha, and Hrafske.
In the Kupyansk direction Russian attacks were reported in and around Kupyansk and nearby settlements (Tyshchenkivka, Kindrashivka, Kurylivka, Stepova Novoselivka, Pishchane and others). ISW also geolocated footage of a strike against a Russian servicemember on the P-79 Kupyansk–Chuhuiv highway on January 9, which it assessed as tied to an infiltration mission that did not alter the FEBA (forward edge of the battle area).
Russian advances in the Donetsk/Kramatorsk axis were contested. ISW reported attacks in and around Lyman, Slovyansk, Kostyantynivka, and Druzhkivka, with geolocated evidence showing Russian strikes on Ukrainian positions and, separately, Ukrainian advances in the Kostyantynivka–Druzhkivka tactical area. Milblogger claims of localized Russian gains in multiple villages in this sector remained unconfirmed or contradicted by subsequent imagery.
On the southern axis, Russian units continued limited ground assaults in western Zaporizhia Oblast (near Orikhiv, Lukyanivske) and heavy pressure around Hulyaipole, where Ukrainian spokespeople reported intense urban fighting and extensive use of drones, aviation, and glide bombs. In Kherson-direction fighting continued with attacks reported near Kherson City and the Antonivskyi Bridge.
Analysis & Implications
Operational tempo: ISW’s daily snapshot for January 10 shows steady Russian operational pressure across many sectors but limited operational breakthroughs. That pattern is consistent with a campaign of attrition and gradual attempts to erode Ukrainian defensive depth rather than rapid sequential encirclements. Absent significant operational reinforcements or improved Russian combined-arms coordination, broad frontline shifts appear unlikely in the immediate term.
Weapon employment and tactical adaptation: Russian reliance on KAB glide bombs, FPV drones, and small-night infiltration teams reflects adaptation to constrained maneuver space and Ukrainian counter-battery and UAV capabilities. The reported daily KAB volumes (20–30 per brigade sector in Pokrovsk) and large drone salvos (Ukrainian brigade reports of up to 100 drones against Hulyaipole) highlight how long-range precision and unmanned systems now shape both firepower and reconnaissance competition.
Logistics and personnel: ISW-cited local reporting that elements of the Russian 6th Combined Arms Army may be rotating wounded or poorly disciplined personnel into frontline units, if accurate, would indicate personnel shortages and strain on Russian formations. Such practices can degrade unit cohesion and combat effectiveness even while temporarily sustaining manpower levels for continued pressure.
Strategic effects: Ukrainian mid-range strikes on energy and logistics nodes in occupied Donetsk and Zaporizhia (electrical substations and railway traction stations) increase pressure on Russian sustainment and rear-area command-and-control. If Ukraine sustains these strikes, Russia will face recurrent dilemmas: divert air defenses and repair assets to rear areas, or accept cumulative degradation of occupied-area administration and military sustainment.
Comparison & Data
| Front | Russian Objective | Jan 10 Status |
|---|---|---|
| Kharkiv (northeast) | Push from Belgorod toward Kharkiv | Continued attacks, no confirmed advance |
| Kupyansk | Advance westward, pressure on Kupyansk | Persistent attacks, no confirmed advance |
| Lyman / Slovyansk | Capture Donetsk axis, encircle north Donetsk | Attacks ongoing, no confirmed territorial gains |
| Zaporizhia / Hulyaipole | Threaten Zaporizhzhia City, hold occupied areas | Heavy strikes and urban fighting; no confirmed new gains |
| Kherson | Limited assaults | Attacks reported, no confirmed advance |
Context: The table synthesizes ISW’s January 10 assessments. Geolocated footage and unit reporting underpin the “no confirmed advance” determinations; unverified milblogger claims are excluded from the confirmed-status column and summarized below.
Reactions & Quotes
“A FAB-250 glide bomb struck Slovyansk on January 10, injuring seven and damaging residences,”
Ukraine National Police (official report)
“Ukrainian forces struck multiple occupied substations and a railway traction station overnight, part of a continued mid-range strike campaign,”
Ukrainian General Staff (official report)
“Russian forces exploit poor weather and darkness to infiltrate in small groups and to camouflage artillery positions,”
Spokesperson, Ukrainian brigade operating in Kramatorsk direction (unit statement)
Unconfirmed
- Multiple Russian milbloggers claimed advances in villages around Kostyantynivka, Virolyubivka, Novodmytrivka, Berestok, and Illinivka; ISW and geolocation evidence did not confirm sustained Russian control of these settlements as of January 10.
- Milblogger assertions of consolidated Russian gains in eastern Svyatohirsk, central Ozerne, and north of Pazeno (northwest of Lyman/Slovyansk) remain unverified by independent imagery.
- Claims that 6th CAA command elements have routinely returned wounded personnel directly into frontline assault formations are locally reported but lack independent corroboration at the unit-readiness level.
Bottom Line
ISW’s January 10 assessment shows Russian forces sustaining multi-axis pressure across eastern and southern Ukraine but failing to register broad or clearly confirmed territorial gains on that day. The fighting pattern — frequent small-group infiltrations, heavy drone and glide-bomb usage, and localized probes — points to incremental attrition rather than decisive operational breakthroughs.
Implication for the coming period: Expect continued localized clashes, contested villages, and persistent strikes on rear-area infrastructure. Ukrainian mid-range strikes are already imposing costs on Russian sustainment in occupied areas; absent a marked change in force posture, the most likely near-term outcome is continued grinding combat with episodic, localized shifts in control rather than large-scale front collapses.