U.S. stock futures were little changed on Friday, Dec. 26, 2025, as traders returned after the Christmas holiday and major indexes tracked for weekly gains. S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100 futures traded near unchanged, while Dow futures were about 45 points, or 0.1%, lower. For the week the S&P 500 was up 1.4%, marking its fourth winning week in five; the Dow and Nasdaq were each more than 1% higher week to date. Markets had closed on Thursday for the holiday after the S&P posted new intraday and closing records on Wednesday.
Key Takeaways
- S&P 500 futures were roughly flat on Dec. 26, with the S&P on pace for a 1.4% weekly rise — its fourth advance in five weeks.
- Dow futures slid about 45 points (0.1%) in early action; the Dow and Nasdaq were each up more than 1% for the week.
- Markets were closed Thursday for Christmas after the S&P 500 set fresh intraday and closing highs on Wednesday.
- Premarket movers included Nvidia, which agreed to pay $20 billion for assets from AI startup Groq — its largest purchase to date.
- Memory names Micron and SanDisk jumped after a DigiTimes report that Samsung and SK Hynix plan roughly 20% price increases for HBM3E chips for 2026 deliveries.
- Retailer Ross Stores continued to expand physical footprint in 2025, opening 90 stores and lifting its shares more than 20% year to date, outpacing the S&P’s 17.9% advance.
- The period remains seasonally favorable: the Stock Trader’s Almanac shows the S&P averages a 1.3% gain between the last five trading days of the year and the first two of the new year.
Background
The U.S. market rally that carried the S&P 500 to new records this week comes amid a mix of bullish momentum and lingering macro risks. Throughout 2025 investors have weighed technological advances, notably AI-led demand, against tariff concerns, inflation dynamics and the prospect of episodic U.S. political brinkmanship. Despite those headline risks, broad indices have largely advanced, producing multiple weekly gains late in the year.
Seasonality also matters at this time of year. The so-called Santa Claus rally — historically the last five trading days of the year and the first two of the new year — has favored stocks since mid-20th century data collection. Market participants routinely monitor that window for momentum that can carry into January, though individual sector performance during that stretch can vary markedly.
Main Event
On the first trading day after Christmas, futures action was muted. S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100 futures hovered around unchanged while Dow futures opened slightly lower, reflecting selective profit-taking and position adjustments after a holiday-shortened week. Volume patterns were expected to be lighter than typical non-holiday sessions as institutional desks finish year-end flows.
Corporate headlines shaped premarket moves. Nvidia announced it would pay $20 billion to acquire assets from AI chip designer Groq, a deal reported as the company’s largest acquisition to date and one likely to further consolidate AI chip capabilities. Traders pushed Nvidia shares modestly higher on the report, treating the move as strategic for Nvidia’s AI supply chain.
Memory-sector stocks reacted to trade-press reporting that Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix intend to raise prices for fifth-generation HBM3E chips by nearly 20% for 2026 deliveries. Micron rose roughly 2% and SanDisk climbed about 4% on those industry-sourced reports, reflecting investor focus on margin and pricing dynamics for high-bandwidth memory.
On the retail front, Ross Stores’ persistent opening of physical locations — 90 new stores in 2025 across Ross Dress for Less and dd’s Discount — continued to draw analyst attention. The chain’s shares reached an all-time high earlier in December and its better-than-expected Q3 results plus raised Q4 guidance helped fuel the rally despite broader trade and tariff concerns.
Analysis & Implications
Muting in futures does not necessarily signal weakness; it can reflect end-of-year position management and the thin volumes typical of the post-holiday calendar. The S&P’s 1.4% weekly rise and recent record closes suggest underlying breadth, but the market’s ability to sustain gains will depend on early-2026 economic data, earnings trends and policy signals from the Federal Reserve.
Nvidia’s reported $20 billion deal for Groq assets illustrates continued strategic consolidation in AI hardware. If completed, it could accelerate Nvidia’s roadmap for specialized inference and training accelerators. For competitors and customers, the acquisition may alter negotiating dynamics for chips and software partnerships, and could prompt regulatory and integration scrutiny through 2026.
Price increases for HBM3E, if confirmed and sustained, would support margins for memory suppliers but could feed through to higher component costs for AI hardware makers and cloud providers. Memory pricing is cyclical; a near-term uptrend supports supplier earnings but can pressure OEM margins unless product pricing or productivity offsets emerge.
Retail resilience, exemplified by Ross Stores’ store openings and the share gains that followed, underscores the uneven nature of the 2025 recovery: some discount and off-price retailers benefited from persistent consumer demand while peers retrenched on real estate. That divergence may matter for sector allocations in early 2026 as investors favor companies showing operational leverage amid uncertain macro variables.
Comparison & Data
| Index / Item | Move (Week-to-Date) |
|---|---|
| S&P 500 | +1.4% (week) |
| Dow Jones Industrial Average | More than +1% (week); futures down ~45 pts intraday |
| Nasdaq | More than +1% (week) |
| Santa Claus window (historical) | Avg. +1.3% for S&P (last 5 days of year + first 2 of new year, since 1950) |
The table highlights weekly gains and the historically strong seasonal window. While the S&P’s weekly gain is a clear numeric fact, the Dow and Nasdaq are described as “more than 1%” week to date per the market summary; intraday futures moves reflect short-term positioning and can reverse as full trading volumes return.
Reactions & Quotes
“2025 is coming to an end with a few more positives than negatives this year,” said Mark Newton, noting that markets have largely shrugged off headline risks as the year closed.
Mark Newton, Head of Technical Strategy, Fundstrat (quoted via CNBC)
“Historically the S&P averages about a 1.3% gain during the late-year Santa Claus window,” according to seasonal data widely used by traders and strategists.
Stock Trader’s Almanac (industry data)
Unconfirmed
- The DigiTimes report that Samsung and SK Hynix will raise HBM3E prices by nearly 20% is based on industry sources and awaits direct confirmation from the companies.
- The precise integration plan and regulatory timeline for Nvidia’s reported $20 billion asset purchase of Groq have not been disclosed publicly in full detail.
- Whether this week’s seasonal strength will transition into sustained January momentum depends on early-2026 economic releases and company earnings, which remain to be seen.
Bottom Line
Markets reopened gently after the Christmas break with futures largely flat and major indexes set for a winning week. The week’s headlines — a sizable Nvidia asset deal, memory-price reports and strong retailer results — show how company-level developments can drive sector rotations even when headline macro risks persist.
Investors should watch confirmation of memory price moves, regulatory filings or disclosures around the Nvidia–Groq transaction, and the early-January flow of economic data and earnings. Those items will likely determine whether late-2025 momentum carries into the new year or gives way to fresh volatility.