New research by Jason Iuliano of the University of Utah shows that borrowers who seek to discharge student loans in bankruptcy are now winning at much higher rates. Using a final dataset of 652 adversary proceedings between October 2022 and November 2023, the study reports an 87% success rate — up from 61% in 2017 and 40% in 2007. The rise follows November 2022 guidance from the U.S. Departments of Education and Justice that made an attestation-based path to discharge more accessible. The study and interviews suggest the change has practical consequences for many indebted Americans, even as enforcement actions and defaults continue to pressure borrowers.
Key Takeaways
- The measured success rate for student loan discharge in bankruptcy rose to 87% in a sample of 652 cases from Oct. 2022–Nov. 2023, per Jason Iuliano’s analysis.
- Historical comparisons show success rates of 61% in 2017 and 40% in 2007, indicating a sustained upward trend over 16 years.
- The November 2022 interagency guidance introduced a 15‑page attestation form that streamlines the discharge route; the Trump administration did not rescind it.
- In Iuliano’s sample, filers averaged $115,000 in student debt; 10% owed more than $240,000, and ages ranged from 24 to 76.
- Women comprised 73% of the student‑loan filers in the analyzed adversary proceedings.
- More than 42 million Americans hold student loans and outstanding federal student debt exceeds $1.6 trillion; over 5 million borrowers are in default now.
- Between 2011 and 2024, roughly 3 million people filed bankruptcy; only 7,293 initiated an adversary proceeding seeking student loan discharge, showing underuse of the pathway.
Background
U.S. law has treated student loans as difficult to discharge in bankruptcy for decades. From the mid‑1970s onward, policy shifts and case law raised the evidentiary burden for debtors, often requiring proof of “undue hardship” or even a showing of near‑certainty that repayment was impossible. Government attorneys traditionally opposed discharge requests vigorously, and plaintiffs frequently needed protracted litigation to pursue relief.
The Biden‑era change in November 2022, jointly announced by the Department of Education and the Department of Justice, established an attestation‑based route that allows borrowers to present a 15‑page sworn statement summarizing their financial circumstances rather than relying exclusively on the older, adversarial standards. That guidance did not get revoked by the subsequent administration, meaning courts have been applying the streamlined process in recent filings.
At the same time, macroeconomic and administrative developments have strained borrowers: programmatic shifts in forgiveness and repayment, a weakening labor market for some cohorts, and operational barriers to relief have left many with escalating balances and growing default rates. These pressures have increased interest among debtors and attorneys in testing bankruptcy as a relief vehicle.
Main Event
Jason Iuliano, a professor at the University of Utah’s S.J. Quinney College of Law, published an analysis in the American Bankruptcy Law Journal using a curated dataset of 652 adversary proceedings that included student loans filed between October 2022 and November 2023. He found that 87% of those who sought discharge prevailed. That figure contrasts with earlier periods, when success rates were substantially lower.
Iuliano told reporters, succinctly, that “people who file for discharge are winning at very high rates.” His study documents both the numerical shift and procedural themes that may explain it, especially the uptake of the attestation form and judges’ evolving receptivity to those pleadings. The dataset included a wide range of debtor ages (24–76) and balances — average debt among filers was $115,000, with the top 10% owing more than $240,000.
Practicing attorneys say the change is consequential. Malissa Giles, a bankruptcy lawyer in Virginia who represents consumer debtors, described the streamlined process as “life‑changing” for many clients and said it often relieves prolonged financial distress. Attorneys also report that many debtors and some counsel remain unaware the adversary path is viable, contributing to the small number of formal discharge requests relative to total bankruptcies.
Analysis & Implications
The near‑tripling of success rates since 2007 implies both procedural and substantive shifts. Procedurally, the attestation process reduces discovery battles and simplifies the factual record judges must weigh. Substantively, judges appear more willing to treat student loans comparably to other unsecured debts when clear evidence of inability to repay exists. Together, these changes shrink the cost and friction for obtaining relief.
For individual borrowers, higher success rates mean bankruptcy can be a realistic route out of debt for some households — particularly those with large balances, limited earnings prospects, or compounding fees and interest. The average $115,000 balance and concentration of higher balances among a subset of filers underline how acute the problem can be for certain professionals and older borrowers who remain indebted.
At a systems level, wider access to discharge could shift population‑level dynamics: successful discharges reduce outstanding balances for discharged borrowers but could increase short‑term fiscal costs tied to loan principal and interest that federal programs may never recover. Conversely, allowing relief for otherwise hopeless cases can reduce long‑run reliance on default remedies such as wage garnishment, which the Education Department signaled would resume in early January.
Policy debates will likely center on tradeoffs: expanding relief through bankruptcy offers individual relief and potential reductions in administrative default costs, but critics worry about moral hazard and fairness to borrowers who remain current on their obligations. How courts, federal agencies, and Congress respond in the months ahead will shape whether the observed 87% outcome persists or narrows under new precedent or policy tweaks.
Comparison & Data
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Success rate (Oct 2022–Nov 2023 sample) | 87% (n=652 adversary proceedings) |
| Success rate (2017) | 61% |
| Success rate (2007) | 40% |
| Average debt among filers in sample | $115,000 |
| Top 10% balance in sample | >$240,000 |
| Gender share (sample) | 73% women |
| Total U.S. student loan borrowers | 42 million+ |
| Outstanding federal student debt | $1.6 trillion+ |
| Borrowers in default (current) | 5 million+ (potentially rising toward ~10 million) |
| Bankruptcies filed (2011–2024) | ~3 million; discharge requests: 7,293 |
The table above compiles the primary quantitative points from the study and related federal data. The 652‑case sample is substantial for adversary proceeding research but represents only a slice of nationwide bankruptcy activity; broader administrative data on every court’s application of the November 2022 guidance are not yet available.
Reactions & Quotes
Legal scholars, practitioners and affected borrowers offered immediate responses to the study’s findings.
“People who file for discharge are winning at very high rates.”
Jason Iuliano, University of Utah (researcher)
Context: Iuliano summarized the study’s core empirical finding in media interviews and argued that the attestation pathway materially changed case outcomes in 2022–23 filings.
“It has been life‑changing for clients … it allows them to sleep at night.”
Malissa Giles, bankruptcy attorney (practitioner)
Context: As a practitioner, Giles described the practical effects for individual clients who obtained relief after years of carrying education debt and related financial stress.
“The Department of Education did not respond to a request for comment.”
CNBC (news outlet)
Context: Reporters sought comment from the Education Department about implementation and enforcement; the department did not provide an on‑the‑record response for that story.
Unconfirmed
- Whether the 87% rate will hold beyond the Oct. 2022–Nov. 2023 window as more courts and circuits address attestation filings remains uncertain.
- The dataset covers 652 adversary proceedings; it is unclear how representative those cases are of all bankruptcy courts and judge rulings nationwide.
- Projections that defaults could expand from 5 million to roughly 10 million are based on Department of Education estimates and contingent on economic and policy developments; timing and magnitude are subject to revision.
Bottom Line
The study’s core finding — an 87% success rate for student loan discharge in a 652‑case sample from Oct. 2022–Nov. 2023 — signals a meaningful procedural shift that has already changed outcomes for many borrowers. The November 2022 attestation guidance materially lowered barriers for some debtors and appears to have produced substantially higher court success rates compared with prior decades.
For borrowers and their counsel, the research underscores a frequently overlooked option: the adversary proceeding using the attestation route can be an effective tool for those with constrained finances and large balances. For policymakers, the findings frame a policy tradeoff between expanding relief for distressed borrowers and questions about fiscal and fairness implications; upcoming enforcement actions and any future administrative or legislative changes will be decisive for the next phase of outcomes.
Sources
- CNBC (news media) — reporting on Jason Iuliano’s study and interviews with practitioners.