Lead
On Tuesday, November 5, 2025, Democratic nominees won decisive gubernatorial victories in Virginia and New Jersey. Mikie Sherrill carried New Jersey by about 13 points and Abigail Spanberger won Virginia by about 15 points. Analysts say the margins reflect both stronger Democratic turnout and a measurable shift of some 2024 Trump supporters to the Democratic side. Exit polls and early county voter-file data indicate that the combination of turnout gains and voter switching — not turnout alone — produced the lopsided results.
Key Takeaways
- Abigail Spanberger won Virginia by roughly 15 points; Mikie Sherrill won New Jersey by roughly 13 points.
- Exit polls show each Democrat captured about 7% of voters who said they supported Donald Trump in 2024.
- Republican Jack Ciattarelli flipped about 3% of voters who had backed Kamala Harris; Winsome Earle-Sears flipped about 1% of Harris’s voters.
- In New Jersey exit polling, Sherrill captured 18% of Trump’s Hispanic backers and won Hispanic voters overall by about 37 points.
- In nine New Jersey counties with early voter-file data, Democrats had a roughly 19-point turnout edge by registration, up from about a 16-point edge among 2024 voters — a net 2.5-point shift.
- Modeling using Times/Siena polling suggests turnout alone accounted for about a 3.5-point net gain for Sherrill in those counties, still short of her total margin.
- Combined, turnout improvements and modest defections among Trump’s 2024 supporters explain the elections’ decisive Democratic margins.
Background
Off-year and special elections in the Trump era often favored Democrats because highly engaged, educated, and reliably Democratic voters turned out while less predictable voters stayed home. That pattern made low-turnout contests more favorable to Democrats but left them vulnerable in higher-turnout presidential years when different, less consistent blocs participate.
The 2025 gubernatorial contests in Virginia and New Jersey were widely viewed as referenda on the post-2024 political alignment. Both states had voted for the Democratic presidential ticket in 2024, but margins and turnout dynamics varied across regions and demographic groups. Campaigns and analysts paid close attention to whether Democrats could hold the coalition that elected the party’s presidential ticket the year before.
Hispanic voters and voters who backed Donald Trump in 2024 emerged as focal points. In 2024, parts of the 2025 electorate had shown new movement toward Trump; the question for November 2025 was whether that movement represented durable realignment or a transient shift tied to the presidential contest.
Main Event
On Election Day, both Democratic candidates won by comfortable margins. Mikie Sherrill’s roughly 13-point victory in New Jersey and Abigail Spanberger’s approximately 15-point margin in Virginia exceeded what turnout shifts alone would predict, according to exit polls and early voter-file analyses.
Exit-poll data indicate that each Democrat secured about 7% of voters who identified as Trump supporters in 2024, a small share that has outsized impact because every flipped voter both adds to one column and subtracts from the other. Those defections, combined with better Democratic turnout, multiplied the electoral effect.
In New Jersey, the picture included a strong recovery among Hispanic voters for Democrats. Exit polls showed Sherrill won 18% of Trump’s Hispanic backers and outperformed 2024 Democratic performance among Hispanics in reported ballots, producing an exit-poll Hispanic margin near 37 points.
Local voter-file records from nine New Jersey counties — representing almost half the state electorate — showed Democrats widened their registration-based turnout advantage to about 19 points, up from roughly 16 among 2024 voters. Analysts used that early data, together with Siena/Times modeling, to estimate the separate contributions of turnout and switching to the results.
Analysis & Implications
The data suggest two distinct forces at work. First, Democrats improved their turnout among registered supporters relative to 2024 in critical counties, producing a modest net benefit worth roughly 2.5 to 3.5 points in modeled estimates. That alone could not account for the full margins seen on Election Night.
Second, a modest but consequential slice of voters who backed Trump in 2024 defected to the Democratic gubernatorial candidates. Capturing about 7% of a prior opponent’s base is significant: a flipped voter effectively shifts the margin by two votes compared with a straight-party trend, amplifying small percentages into decisive swings in close electorates.
For Democrats, the implication is that electoral resilience in 2025 rested not only on turning out the base but on persuading a narrow band of swing voters who may be responsive to candidate quality, local issues, or campaign messaging. For Republicans, the results underscore vulnerability where turnout advantages are insufficient to offset defections.
Looking ahead, if Democrats can replicate both stronger turnout and targeted persuasion in other off-year contests, they could defend governing majorities; conversely, Republicans will need to shore up retention among 2024 supporters and limit defections among key demographic groups such as Hispanic voters.
Comparison & Data
| Measure | 2024 (baseline) | 2025 (observed) | Net change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic registration turnout edge (NJ counties) | ~16 points | ~19 points | ~+2.5 points |
| Share of 2024 Trump supporters won by Democrats (exit polls) | — | ~7% | — |
| Republican share of 2024 Harris supporters flipped | — | Ciattarelli ~3%, Earle-Sears ~1% | — |
| Sherrill’s share of Trump’s Hispanic support (NJ exit poll) | — | ~18% | — |
These figures come from exit-poll estimates and early county voter-file releases. The county-level registration numbers are rounded and limited to nine New Jersey counties that made both early and Election Day records available promptly; statewide official data will provide a fuller picture in the weeks ahead.
Reactions & Quotes
Exit-poll aggregates indicate both Democrats won about 7 percent of 2024 Trump supporters, a shift that materially increased their margins.
Exit polls / National news aggregation
Early county voter-file data in New Jersey show a roughly 19-point Democratic turnout edge by registration, up from about 16 points among 2024 voters in the same counties.
County voter records (official)
Modeling that combines Times and Siena polling with voter-file inputs estimates turnout explained about 3.5 points of Sherrill’s net gain in the observed counties, leaving the rest attributable to voter switching.
Times/Siena analysis (polling research)
Unconfirmed
- Whether the 18% share of Trump’s Hispanic support for Sherrill in New Jersey precisely reflects the full electorate; exit-poll estimates are subject to sampling error and weighting choices.
- County-level voter-file coverage is limited to nine New Jersey counties at this stage; a complete statewide voter-file analysis has not yet been released.
- Exit-poll figures for Hispanic support in Virginia were not reported in the same detail, so comparisons between states are incomplete.
Bottom Line
The November 5, 2025 gubernatorial outcomes in Virginia and New Jersey show that Democrats won not only by energizing their base but also by persuading a modest share of 2024 Trump supporters. Combined turnout gains and voter switching converted relatively small percentages into large margins.
Practically, these results suggest that future contests will turn on both mobilization and targeted persuasion in competitive suburbs and among Hispanic and other swing blocs. Parties and campaigns that attend to both levers — turnout mechanics and messages that sway persuadable voters — will have a strategic advantage in similar off-year and midterm settings.
Sources
- The New York Times — UpShot analysis (news analysis)
- New Jersey Division of Elections (official state election records)
- Virginia Department of Elections (official state election records)
- Siena College Research Institute (polling research)