— A Global Carbon Project analysis projects that global fossil carbon dioxide emissions will hit about 38.1 billion tonnes in 2025, roughly 1.1 percent higher than 2024. The increase, driven by rises in the United States and other regions, comes even as researchers detect a possible recent flattening of emissions in China. The report underscores that despite growth in wind, solar and electric vehicles, the world remains far from the deep cuts needed to meet Paris Agreement goals.
Key takeaways
- Global fossil-fuel and cement CO2 emissions are projected at ~38.1 billion tonnes in 2025, about 1.1% above 2024.
- China accounts for roughly 32% of global emissions; the report estimates only about a 0.4% rise in China for 2025, with signs of a plateau.
- The United States is estimated to see emissions rise about 1.9% in 2025, partly due to colder winter heating demand and increased coal use by power utilities.
- India contributes about 8% and the European Union about 6% of global emissions; Europe’s 2025 emissions were near-flat, up ~0.4% in part from weather-driven factors.
- Outside the major emitters, emissions rose ~1.1% in 2025, with international aviation rebounding to pre-pandemic levels.
- Thirty-five countries recorded consistent emissions declines over the past decade, up from 21 in the prior decade — a sign of localized progress amid a rising global total.
Background
The Global Carbon Project report arrives a decade after the 2015 Paris Agreement, which set long-term goals to hold global warming well below 2°C. Achieving those goals requires emissions to peak and then fall toward net-zero; continued annual increases make that pathway steeper and more urgent. Over the 2000s and 2010s many economies expanded coal-fired capacity to fuel rapid industrial growth, most prominently China, which built hundreds of plants to meet surging demand.
More recently the energy mix has shifted: large-scale installations of wind and solar and faster uptake of electric vehicles have cut the emissions intensity of new energy and transport in many markets. Nonetheless, coal and other fossil fuels still supply the majority of primary energy in several major economies, and short-term factors such as weather, electricity supply disruptions and fuel switching can drive year-to-year variability in national totals.
Main event
The Global Carbon Project’s compilation — drawing on national data, energy statistics and modeling — finds global fossil CO2 on a trajectory to set a new high in 2025, at about 38.1 billion tonnes. That total represents a 1.1% increase over 2024, driven by sizeable increases in the United States and in many countries outside the largest emitters. China’s emissions appear to have flattened after decades of steep growth, but analysts flag data lags and uncertainty around policy shifts.
In the United States the report attributes a near-term emissions uptick — roughly 1.9% — to a colder-than-average winter that increased heating demand and to utilities burning more coal this year, even as the country’s long-term emissions trend remains down from earlier peaks. Europe’s emissions were broadly flat, with a modest rise (about 0.4%) linked to a cold February and reduced hydropower availability that pushed up fossil generation.
Elsewhere, emissions in the rest of the world climbed by about 1.1% in 2025. International air travel rebounded strongly to pre-2020 levels, contributing to higher fuel use. The report also notes that while 35 countries have sustained declines in emissions over the past decade, those national improvements are currently outweighed by growth in other regions and sectors.
Analysis & implications
The projected 2025 record deepens the challenge of meeting the Paris goals because each additional year of rising emissions reduces available carbon budgets and narrows policy options. Even modest annual increases — a few percent globally — imply substantially higher cumulative emissions over the coming decade unless rapid, systemic changes are enacted. Policymakers face trade-offs between short-term energy security, economic growth and the longer-term need to decarbonize infrastructure.
China’s reported slowdown is consequential: at ~32% of global emissions, a genuine peak or decline there would materially lower global trajectories. Yet analysts caution that a plateau in reported emissions could reflect data timing, temporary demand patterns, or shifts that increase coal use in specific industries, such as chemical feedstocks. Domestic policy choices — including incentives for renewables versus fossil-based industry support — will determine whether the flattening becomes an enduring peak.
For the United States and Europe, the near-term variability tied to weather and fuel-switching highlights vulnerability in grids that still rely on thermal generation. Sustained emissions reductions will depend on faster deployment of low-carbon firming resources (storage, grid upgrades, low-emissions hydrogen and dispatchable renewables) alongside efficiency and electrification of heating and transport.
Comparison & data
| Indicator | 2024 (actual) | 2025 (projected) |
|---|---|---|
| Global fossil CO2 (billion tonnes) | ~37.7 | ~38.1 |
| China share of global CO2 | 32% | 32% |
| United States change | — | +1.9% |
| Europe change | — | ~+0.4% |
The table summarizes headline figures from the report: a rise from ~37.7 billion tonnes in 2024 to ~38.1 billion tonnes in 2025, and regional shifts driven by weather, fuel choices and demand. These annual movements are small relative to the cumulative emissions that influence long-term warming, which explains why analysts emphasize sustained year-on-year declines rather than short-term flatness.
Reactions & quotes
Researchers and officials at the U.N. summit in Belém acknowledged the report while noting incremental progress in some countries but stressing the gap to required reductions.
“It is 10 years since the Paris Agreement was adopted, and despite progress on many fronts, fossil carbon dioxide emissions continue their relentless rise.”
Glen Peters, CICERO researcher
Peters, a lead author in the report, framed the 2025 projection as confirmation that current policies and technology adoption rates are not yet sufficient to bend the global curve downward. He highlighted the tension between expanding renewable capacity and ongoing fossil-fuel infrastructure.
“Yes, progress has been real. But it’s not nearly enough.”
Simon Stiell, U.N. climate chief
Stiell, speaking at the Belém summit, urged deeper emissions cuts and stronger policy commitments worldwide. Other scientists cautioned that China’s apparent plateau requires more evidence before declaring a peak.
“There is no clear peak yet; the outlook is highly uncertain because of policy changes and potential growth in coal use for industrial feedstocks.”
Jan Ivar Korsbakken, CICERO senior researcher
Unconfirmed
- Whether China’s emissions have definitively peaked: data lags and differing analyses leave the timing and permanence of any peak unconfirmed.
- The extent to which short-term weather patterns (cold winters or monsoon timing) explain 2025 national changes versus durable policy or structural shifts.
- Projections of coal use for chemical feedstocks in China and elsewhere remain contingent on industry decisions and policy incentives that are still evolving.
Bottom line
The Global Carbon Project’s 2025 projection — roughly 38.1 billion tonnes of fossil CO2 and a 1.1% rise versus 2024 — reinforces that global emissions have not yet turned the decisive corner toward sustained decline. Small annual percentage changes mask large cumulative effects: continued increases will eat into remaining carbon budgets and narrow options for meeting Paris targets without more aggressive near-term action.
Key indicators to watch in the coming months are definitive national accounting updates, concrete policy measures that limit new fossil infrastructure, and whether the signs of stabilization in China persist when full data are available. For policymakers and investors, the report underscores the need to pair accelerated renewable deployment with grid investments, industrial decarbonization, and policies that reduce incentives for new fossil projects.
Sources
- The New York Times (news report summarizing Global Carbon Project findings)
- Global Carbon Project (research consortium — annual carbon budget synthesis)
- CICERO (academic climate research center — author statements)
- Carbon Brief (specialist climate reporting and analysis)
- UN Climate Change (UNFCCC) (official UN body — Belém summit coverage and statements)