Lead
Erich Richter of the New York Post previews and makes his selections for the NFL Week 12 slate published on Nov. 22, 2025, covering the Sunday and Monday matchups. His piece combines a statistical model with subjective calls, yielding specific point spreads and projected scores for each contest. Richter reports a 7-6-1 result last week and a season ledger of 73-77-1 entering Week 12. The write-up flags key injuries, quarterback changes and line movement that could alter outcomes before kickoff.
Key Takeaways
- Lions -10.5 vs. Giants: Richter expects Detroit to dominate a rush-poor New York defense (Giants ranked No. 32 vs. the run by DVOA) and projects a lopsided result.
- Ravens vs. Jets: Jets listed as +13.5; Richter’s model favors New York’s chances with Tyrod Taylor over Justin Fields, projecting Ravens 27.86, Jets 18.98.
- Packers -6.5 vs. Vikings: Green Bay remains a high-DVOA unit (No. 6) and the model projects 24.92–15.28 in favor of the Packers despite possible personnel questions.
- Patriots -6 vs. Bengals: Cincinnati’s defense is cited among the league’s worst; editor’s note says Joe Burrow will not be activated for the game.
- Chiefs -3.5 vs. Colts: Richter admits second-guessing his model but ultimately backs Kansas City; he lists a projected score of 25.15 to 25.72 and favors the Chiefs.
- Other notable calls: Raiders -4 over Browns, Cardinals +3 over Jaguars, Cowboys +3 over Eagles, Falcons +2 over Saints, Rams -6.5 over Buccaneers, Panthers +7 over 49ers (Monday).
- Betting track record: Richter reports a 30.15% ROI on his long-shot betting approach since 2022 and emphasizes model-human blended reasoning for Week 12.
Background
Week 12 falls deep into the NFL regular season when rosters and identities are clearer and betting lines often reflect seasonal form. Richter draws on model outputs and situational trends — for example, he notes that favorites of more than 10 points in Weeks 11–15 since 2015 have gone 45–36 against the spread (ATS). That historical slice is used to temper large early-season spreads and to target teams that appear to be deteriorating rather than improving.
The piece repeatedly references DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average) rankings to support defensive and offensive assessments: Green Bay is listed in the top 6 by DVOA, New York’s run defense sits at No. 32, and New England’s pass defense is cited near the bottom of the league at No. 27. Those analytics are combined with recent form, home/away splits and injury status to construct both model projections and subjective overlays.
Main Event
Lions vs. Giants: Richter views Detroit as a blowout candidate against a Giants rush defense ranked last by DVOA. With a double-digit spread (Lions -10.5), he leans on Detroit’s ability to run and finish drives against teams that struggle to stop the ground game, forecasting a decisive Lions performance and speculating the Giants’ coaching staff may have trouble adjusting early.
Ravens vs. Jets and Chiefs vs. Colts: The Jets are listed as large underdogs (+13.5) but Richter’s model favors New York if Tyrod Taylor replaces Justin Fields, citing Taylor’s mobility and game-management upside against Baltimore. In Kansas City’s game, Richter admits he is overriding model caution after a recent pick that went wrong; he expects an aggressive Chiefs attack versus the Colts and backs Kansas City despite model outputs.
Packers vs. Vikings and Bears vs. Steelers: Green Bay is presented as a buy-low opportunity at home (-6.5) given its top-6 DVOA standing and pass rush; Richter’s model gap favors the Packers by roughly 10 points. Chicago (-2.5) is viewed as competent enough offensively to handle Pittsburgh even if their 7–3 record is labeled “fraudulent” in tone — the pick still rests on Chicago’s ability to outscore a limited Steelers offense.
Patriots vs. Bengals and Titans vs. Seahawks: New England (-6) gets a vote because Cincinnati’s defense is described among the league’s weakest, so a shootout or a New England edge is plausible whether Joe Burrow plays or not (editor’s note later clarifies Burrow will not be activated). Tennessee (+13) is a contrarian cover pick against Seattle in a game with a low total (39.5), where covering a large spread with a modest projected scoring range is Richter’s angle.
Remainder of Sunday and Monday: Richter lists Raiders -4 over Browns, Cardinals +3 over Jaguars, Cowboys +3 over Eagles, Falcons +2 over Saints and Rams -6.5 over Buccaneers as his other Sunday choices. He closes the slate by endorsing the Panthers +7 on Monday against the 49ers, with a model projection around 24.09–26.98 favoring San Francisco but a subjective lean to Carolina getting the number.
Analysis & Implications
Richter’s approach mixes model outputs with situational judgment; where his model and intuition diverge, he discloses which side he takes. That transparency is relevant for bettors weighing mechanical model plays against human overlays. His admission of last week’s error (backing the Chiefs over the model) and current contrarian calls (e.g., Titans covering a big spread) illustrate an active risk-management posture rather than a purely algorithmic strategy.
Line movement, injuries and late quarterback decisions are central to Week 12 outcomes. The piece highlights quarterback uncertainty in New York (Jets), Cincinnati (Burrow listed inactive per the editor), and other places where veteran backups or matchup-specific quarterbacks may change the value proposition on posted spreads. For market participants, those late changes can flip a recommended play into a pass or a new opportunity.
From a standings and playoff-seeding perspective, several picks carry more than betting value: divisional games like Cowboys–Eagles and Packers–Vikings can have ripple effects for home-field considerations. Richter frames some underdog choices as buy-low opportunities for teams still within reach of playoff slots and uses DVOA and recent-game context to justify confidence in those sides.
Comparison & Data
| Game | Spread | Richter projection |
|---|---|---|
| Lions vs. Giants | Lions -10.5 | Not numerically projected (blowout expected) |
| Ravens vs. Jets | Jets +13.5 | Ravens 27.86 – Jets 18.98 |
| Packers vs. Vikings | Packers -6.5 | Packers 24.92 – Vikings 15.28 |
| Bears vs. Steelers | Bears -2.5 | Bears 28.67 – Steelers 23.09 |
| Chiefs vs. Colts | Chiefs -3.5 | 25.15 – 25.72 (Richter favors Chiefs) |
| Panthers vs. 49ers (Mon) | Panthers +7 | 49ers 26.98 – Panthers 24.09 |
The table above selects representative matchups and reproduces Richter’s posted projected scores and main spreads. These numbers should be understood as model outputs blended with subjective overlays; small differences in injury reports or late scratches can swing expected value. Bettors should cross-check kickoff-day roster reports and official injury lists before placing stakes.
Reactions & Quotes
“My model likes Gang Green here,”
Erich Richter / New York Post
“Burrow will not be activated for the game.”
Editor’s note / New York Post
Those short excerpts underline the piece’s mix of model-driven projections and last-minute personnel information. Richter’s own commentary is presented as opinion and model output; the editor’s note conveys a factual roster update that materially affects the Patriots–Bengals line and related prop markets.
Unconfirmed
- Potential early chopping of Giants defensive coordinator Shane Bowen is presented as a risk but not confirmed by team statements.
- Quarterback snaps and final activations (other than the editor’s note on Burrow) can change up to game time and were not all officially confirmed at publication.
- Some injury statuses cited (e.g., absence of Brian Thomas Jr. or Travis Hunter for the Jaguars) should be verified against the official NFL gameday report before wagering.
Bottom Line
Richter offers a week of blended model picks and human judgment for Week 12, highlighting several lopsided favorites and a handful of contrarian covers. His transparency about model disagreements and last week’s result (7–6–1) is useful for readers assessing the credibility of each selection.
Prudent bettors should treat these calls as one input among many: verify final injury reports, monitor line movement and consider bankroll management when reacting to late-breaking quarterback or roster news. The Week 12 slate presents clear opportunities and clear risks — this piece frames both and flags where the author is betting against his own model or relying on situational reads.