Stores Keep Turkey Prices Down While Other Thanksgiving Staples Rise

Who: Small-scale producers and large retailers across the United States; When: Thanksgiving shopping season, mid-November; Where: From Old Brick Farm near Chelsea, Michigan, to national grocery chains; What: Retailers promoted discounted or free turkeys even as the national turkey flock hit a 40‑year low and wholesale turkey costs jumped; Result: Consumers saw mixed outcomes — lower retail turkey deals alongside higher costs for several other Thanksgiving staples.

Key Takeaways

• U.S. turkey inventories have fallen to a 40‑year low after avian disease outbreaks killed more than 2 million birds in the past three months, per USDA estimates.
• The USDA said wholesale turkey prices could rise as much as 44% this year, while Leap Market Analytics reported frozen 8–16 lb hens averaging $1.77 per pound in early November, up about 81% year‑over‑year.
• Datasembly found a Thanksgiving basket of 11 staples cost $58.81 as of Nov. 17, a 4.1% increase from a year earlier; Datasembly also reported a 2% retail decline in the price of a 10‑pound turkey as of that date.
• Alternative price tallies varied: the American Farm Bureau Federation estimated a $55.16 dinner for 10 (5% cheaper), while Wells Fargo Agri‑Food’s NielsenIQ‑based figure for a store‑brand meal for 10 was about $80 (down 2–3%).
• Retail promotions — including Aldi’s $40 meal-for-10 bundle and Kroger’s under‑$50 store‑brand offer — helped blunt higher wholesale turkey costs for many shoppers.
• Other items rose: Datasembly showed canned cranberry sauce up about 38%; U.S. cranberry production is projected down 9% this year, affecting supply and price.
• Tariffs on imported steel and aluminum have amplified packing and canning costs, with academic estimates that tariff pass‑through can add roughly $0.10–$0.40 per canned unit.

Background

Avian diseases this year, notably strains of avian influenza and outbreaks of avian metapneumovirus, have reduced flock sizes and disrupted hatchery availability. The U.S. has seen more than 2 million turkeys culled in recent months, pushing breeder and hatchling allocations tighter and prompting some farmers to place orders far in advance to secure chicks for next year. Small, multi‑generation operations such as Old Brick Farm near Chelsea, Michigan—run by Larry Doll—reported avoiding infection this season through strict biosecurity, but acknowledged that hatchery limits constrained their expansion plans.

At the same time, consumer food prices are being influenced by a mix of demand shifts and input costs. Beef and other red meats rose sharply this year (beef up about 14% in September versus a year earlier), encouraging some shoppers to substitute toward poultry. Tariffs on steel and aluminum have raised processing and canning expenses, while weather problems, including drought in cranberry‑growing regions, have cut output and raised prices for certain goods. Retailers have responded with targeted promotions to attract customers amid these mixed pressures.

Main Event

Wholesale turkey markets climbed this autumn, with USDA projections and market trackers signaling substantial year‑over‑year gains. Retailers, however, deployed promotions such as free or discounted turkeys to draw shoppers for the holiday week. Datasembly’s price checks through Nov. 17 showed a slight decline in the retail price of a 10‑pound frozen turkey even as wholesale indicators rose, reflecting retail strategies to preserve traffic.

National chains and discounters publicized bundled meals and aggressive private‑label pricing: Aldi marketed a 21‑item, $40 meal-for‑10 kit; Kroger highlighted a sub‑$50 store‑brand menu for 10. Those offers contrasted with higher wholesale costs reported by commodity trackers: Leap Market Analytics noted frozen hen prices that were nearly double last year in percentage terms. Industry analysts said retailers often absorb or subsidize bird prices temporarily to maintain customer loyalty.

Price comparisons between different surveys produced divergent consumer messages. The American Farm Bureau Federation’s volunteer‑shopper survey found a lower cost for a dinner for 10, while Wells Fargo’s NielsenIQ‑based estimate using store brands produced a higher figure. Part of that gap stems from differing baskets and methods: some tallies include fewer items or lower‑priced brand mixes than others, complicating direct consumer comparisons.

Analysis & Implications

Supply shocks from disease and tight hatchery allocations create short‑term volatility and upward pressure on wholesale turkey prices; yet large retailers’ promotional tactics can mute the impact at the checkout. That dynamic produces uneven outcomes across regions and store formats: shoppers at chains running loss‑leader turkey offers may pay less for the bird itself, while add‑on items and regional shortages can raise overall meal costs.

Input‑side pressures such as tariffs and weather damage affect processed and canned goods differently than fresh produce or meat. Tariff‑related cost increases in metal and packaging have been at least partially passed to consumers, especially for shelf‑stable products. Simultaneously, drought‑reduced cranberry yields and other crop weather effects can push specific item prices higher, creating a mixed inflation picture for a bundled holiday meal.

For producers, the near‑term picture is mixed. Farmers who avoided disease can command higher per‑pound prices at direct sales, as Old Brick Farm did at roughly $6.50 per pound, but hatchery shortages and culling elsewhere raise feed, replacement, and operational uncertainty. For the broader supply chain, elevated wholesale prices increase the risk of consolidation in sourcing and continued emphasis on promotions to preserve shopper traffic.

Comparison & Data

These figures reflect different measurement approaches: government commodity reports emphasize wholesale and production trends, while private price‑scan services track retail scanner data and in‑store pricing. Survey‑based tallies (e.g., volunteer shoppers) may produce different averages because of sample selection and basket definitions. Readers should interpret each number in the context of its methodology and coverage window.

Reactions & Quotes

Local producers emphasized biosecurity and long planning cycles; retailers highlighted promotions to retain customers. Below are representative remarks and context.

I try to keep the operation as clean as possible, and not bringing other animals in from other farms helps mitigate that risk as well.

Larry Doll, Old Brick Farm (small family farm)

Context: Doll described farm practices that helped his flock avoid avian disease this season, while noting that hatchery availability remained constrained and he planned to order chicks far in advance.

We’re seeing some promotions being implemented in an effort to draw customers into the store.

David Ortega, Professor of Food Economics and Policy, Michigan State University (academic)

Context: Ortega characterized retailer behavior in November as promotional strategies to preserve foot traffic and sales despite wholesale cost pressures.

For a big chunk of the population, they look at steak cuts and say, ‘I can’t or I don’t want to pay $30 a pound.’

Mark Jordan, Executive Director, Leap Market Analytics (market analyst)

Context: Jordan explained substitution effects — higher beef prices can push buyers toward more affordable proteins such as turkey, increasing demand even as supply tightens.

Unconfirmed

• Whether national chains’ free‑turkey promotions will continue if wholesale turkey prices remain elevated into spring is unclear and depends on margin calculations across retailers.
• The precise share of canned‑goods price increases attributable solely to tariffs versus other input costs or supply disruptions has not been publicly quantified.
• Comparisons that show lower overall meal costs at one retailer (e.g., Walmart) sometimes reflect different item assortments rather than identical baskets, so direct cost parity is unconfirmed.

Bottom Line

The holiday picture is mixed: disease‑driven supply constraints pushed wholesale turkey prices sharply higher this year, but aggressive retail promotions and varied measurement methods produced uneven signals for shoppers. Some consumers found lower door‑price turkeys or value bundles that reduced the bird’s share of total meal cost, while others faced higher expenses on side items such as canned cranberry sauce.

For producers and supply‑chain actors, the season underscores the fragility of concentrated production systems and the value of biosecurity and forward planning. Policymakers and industry groups will watch whether substitution effects (from pricier beef to poultry) and tariff‑related input costs continue to shape grocery inflation into next year.

Sources

• Associated Press — news report (journalism)
• U.S. Department of Agriculture — official government projections and commodity reports (official)
• Datasembly — retail price scanner and market research (private data firm)
• American Farm Bureau Federation — volunteer price survey (industry association)
• Wells Fargo Agri‑Food Institute / NielsenIQ data referenced (industry research)
• Leap Market Analytics — poultry and livestock market tracker (market analytics)