Walmart will report earnings before the bell. Here’s what to expect – CNBC

Lead

Walmart will release results for its fiscal third quarter before the opening bell on Thursday, Nov. 20, 2025, providing a fresh snapshot of U.S. consumer spending as retailers head into the holiday season. Analysts polled by LSEG expect earnings per share of $0.60 and revenue of $177.43 billion. The report will test whether mixed signals from other big retailers—some trimming profit forecasts, others raising them—hold across grocery and discretionary categories. Investors will also watch for commentary on short-term factors such as SNAP benefit changes and the company’s recent U.S. leadership transition.

Key Takeaways

• Analysts expect Walmart to report $0.60 in adjusted EPS for the fiscal third quarter, per an LSEG survey.
• Street guidance for revenue centers on $177.43 billion for the quarter, reflecting Walmart’s broad merchandise mix.
• Walmart serves a wide income spectrum, including many SNAP recipients; benefit disruptions during the recent government shutdown are a short-term variable for grocery sales.
• In August Walmart raised its full-year net sales outlook to a 3.75%–4.75% increase and projected adjusted EPS of $2.52–$2.62.
• Walmart announced a U.S. leadership succession: John Furner will succeed Doug McMillon as CEO of Walmart Inc. effective Feb. 1.
• Peers painted a mixed retail picture this week—Target, Home Depot and Lowe’s trimmed profit targets while TJX said it’s seeing a “strong start” to the holidays.
• During Doug McMillon’s tenure, Walmart shares have risen by more than 300%, underscoring the stock’s long-term outperformance.

Background

The retail sector enters the holiday period highly scrutinized for signs of persistent strength or softening in consumer demand. Grocery and general merchandise chains are uniquely positioned to read U.S. household spending because they span necessities and discretionary items. Walmart, as the nation’s largest grocer and a general merchandise leader, captures purchases from low-income consumers using SNAP benefits to high-income shoppers drawn by remodels and faster delivery options.

Macro factors—food inflation, a recent government shutdown that disrupted benefit flows for some households, and lingering concerns about big-ticket discretionary spending—have produced mixed guidance across the sector. Several large-format retailers have scaled back profit expectations this week, while value-oriented chains report stronger starts to holiday sales. Walmart’s prior guidance update in August increased its full-year sales and profit targets, setting a higher bar for the quarter.

Main Event

Walmart will deliver its fiscal third-quarter financials before markets open on Nov. 20, followed by management remarks and an earnings release. The LSEG analyst survey sets the consensus near $0.60 in adjusted EPS and $177.43 billion in revenue; investors will compare those figures to internal comps and seasonal trends. Management commentary on revenue mix, gross margins, and inventory will be essential to interpreting the headline numbers.

Grocery trends will be watched closely because SNAP recipients represent a meaningful shopper cohort; any lingering effects from the government shutdown or seasonally higher food prices could show up in comps. Walmart’s ability to attract higher-income customers—credited in part to remodels and faster delivery—could offset weakness in other segments, especially if consumers trade down for savings on everyday items but still splurge on targeted discretionary purchases.

The earnings release follows a leadership change announced last week: John Furner, currently CEO of Walmart U.S., will assume the top role at the company on Feb. 1. Markets will assess whether the succession signals continuity or a shift in priorities, particularly around e-commerce, store experience and price investments ahead of the holidays.

Analysis & Implications

Walmart’s Q3 print will be treated as a bellwether for U.S. consumer health because the company spans staples and discretionary categories while serving a broad income mix. A beat in revenue or EPS could signal resilience among core shoppers and validate Walmart’s pricing and assortment strategies. Conversely, a miss—particularly in comparable grocery sales—would add weight to recent cautious outlooks from other large retailers.

Short-term policy disruptions, like the pause in SNAP distributions tied to the government shutdown, create noise in quarter-to-quarter comps. While Walmart’s scale helps smooth localized or programmatic shocks, the company’s grocery margin profile and traffic trends will reveal how much of the quarter’s performance reflects structural demand versus transitory events. Investors will parse same-store sales, ticket size, and basket composition to separate price-driven inflation effects from volume changes.

Walmart’s August hike to its full-year guidance suggests management expects continued top-line momentum; this quarter will test that assumption. E-commerce growth, fulfillment efficiency, and in-store remodels all factor into Walmart’s competitive position versus discounters and specialty retailers. The leadership transition may not produce immediate strategic changes, but any forward-looking comments from incoming CEO John Furner will be read for emphasis on price, tech investment, or international focus.

Comparison & Data

The table summarizes consensus expectations and prior guidance referenced by management in August. Comparing headline EPS and revenues against these reference points will clarify whether Walmart is tracking above or below its own outlook and the broader retail cohort that has shown mixed signals this week.

Reactions & Quotes

Walmart’s finance chief offered a measured assessment of consumer behavior earlier in the cycle; his line is often cited to frame quarterly results.

“Shoppers continue to be very resilient.”

John David Rainey, CFO, Walmart (Aug. comments to CNBC)

Retail peer reactions this season have varied, highlighting the unevenness across categories. Off-price retailer TJX pointed to early holiday strength among value-focused shoppers.

“A strong start”

TJX Companies (public commentary)

Other large retailers—Target, Home Depot and Lowe’s—issued more cautious near-term profit outlooks this week, citing selective weakness in big-ticket spending and a higher emphasis on promotions.

Unconfirmed

• Whether the temporary lapse in SNAP benefits had a measurable, sustained impact on Walmart’s quarterly comps remains unconfirmed pending detailed company comps.
• The permanence of higher-income shoppers shifting to Walmart as a structural trend is not yet verified and requires multiple quarters of data to confirm.

Bottom Line

Walmart’s fiscal third-quarter report on Nov. 20 will be a pivotal data point for gauging consumer resilience as the holiday season ramps up. The consensus $0.60 EPS and $177.43 billion revenue set clear expectations; how the company explains traffic, price, and mix will matter more than the headline numbers alone.

Beyond the quarter, investors will watch for signals about strategy under the incoming CEO and whether Walmart’s investments in stores and fulfillment continue to attract a broader customer base. In short, the print will shape near-term retail sentiment and provide a clearer lens on whether consumer behavior is stabilizing or shifting ahead of the most important sales period of the year.

Sources

• CNBC (news report summarizing expectations and company remarks)
• Walmart Corporate (official company site and newsroom)
• TJX Companies Investor Relations (official investor commentary)
• LSEG (financial data provider cited for analyst consensus)